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  • Nature Research  (2)
  • Braunschweig : Techn. Univ., Inst. für Geophysik und extraterrestrische Physik  (1)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Braunschweig : Techn. Univ., Inst. für Geophysik und extraterrestrische Physik
    Keywords: Forschungsbericht ; Rosetta ; Magnetometer
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: Online-Ressource (105 S., 1,99 MB)
    Language: German
    Note: Förderkennzeichen BMBF 50QP 1001 , Unterschiede zwischen dem gedruckten Dokument und der elektronischen Ressource können nicht ausgeschlossen werden , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat reader.
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The Atlantic Nino is one of the most important patterns of interannual tropical climate variability, but how climate change will influence this pattern is not well known due to large climate model biases. Here we show that state-of-the-art climate models robustly predict a weakening of Atlantic Ninos in response to global warming, mainly due to a decoupling of subsurface and surface temperature variations as the upper equatorial Atlantic Ocean warms. This weakening is predicted by most (〉80%) models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 under the highest emission scenarios. Our results indicate a reduction in variability by the end of the century by 14%, and as much as 24-48% when accounting for model errors using a simple emergent constraint analysis. Such a weakening of Atlantic Nino variability will potentially impact climate conditions and the skill of seasonal predictions in many regions. The Atlantic Nino is an important mode of tropical climate variability, but how it reacts to climate change is not well known due to model biases. Here the authors show a robust weakening of the Atlantic Nino of up to 24-48% under high emissions until the end of the century.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The Atlantic Niño is the leading mode of interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the equatorial Atlantic and assumed to be largely governed by coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics described by the Bjerknes-feedback loop. However, the role of the atmospheric diabatic heating, which can be either an indicator of the atmosphere’s response to, or its influence on the SST, is poorly understood. Here, using satellite-era observations from 1982–2015, we show that diabatic heating variability associated with the seasonal migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone controls the seasonality of the Atlantic Niño. The variability in precipitation, a measure of vertically integrated diabatic heating, leads that in SST, whereas the atmospheric response to SST variability is relatively weak. Our findings imply that the oceanic impact on the atmosphere is smaller than previously thought, questioning the relevance of the classical Bjerknes-feedback loop for the Atlantic Niño and limiting climate predictability over the equatorial Atlantic sector.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
    Format: text
    Format: text
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