Description: The study aims at the identification of areas in the Baltic Sea from where potential pollution is transported to vulnerable regions. Generally, there is higher risk of ship accidents along the shipping routes and along the approaching routes to the harbors. The spreading of harmful substances is mainly controlled by prevailing atmospheric conditions and wind-induced local sea surface currents. Especially, spawning, nursery and tourist areas are considered high-vulnerable areas. With sophisticated high resolution numerical models, the complex current system of the Baltic Sea has been simulated, and with subsequent drift modeling areas of reduced risk or high-risk areas for environmental pollution could be identified. In a further step, optimum fairways of reduced risk could be obtained by following probability minima of coastal hits or maxima for the time it takes to reach the coast. The results could be useful for environmental management for the maritime industry to minimize the risk of environmental pollution in case of ship accidents.

Description: From numerical model simulations, fluxes of volume, heat and salt have been calculated for different hydrographical sections in areas which are important for the deep water exchange in the Baltic Sea. The calculated deep water flow in the Arkona basin is in accordance with independent estimations obtained from profile data. Model results reveal strong seasonal and inter-annual variability in the calculated fluxes. The variability is governed by the prevailing atmospheric conditions. It is found that the strength of the upper layer low saline flow in the Arkona Basin which on average is directed to the west, opposite to the mean wind direction, is compensated by a high saline flow in deeper layers. The upper layer flow is a combination of a flow forced by the fresh water surplus directed to the west, and a wind-driven part. In dependence on the prevailing wind conditions the resulting flow is either increased or decreased. Furthermore, increasing upper layer flow results in an increased lower layer flow in opposite direction. The annual mean flow is weakly correlated with the annual mean runoff to the Baltic Sea. In accordance with the mean circulation, the flow through the Bornholm Channel is on average directed to the east, and south of Bornholm to the west indicating an import of heat and salt to the Bornholm Basin through the Bornholm Channel and an export south of Bornholm. Flux characteristics change further downstream in the Stolpe Channel. The volume flow in the upper layer shows a strong seasonal signal. During autumn to spring the flow is mainly directed to the east, in summer, the flow direction is reversed. Flow in westerly directions is related to increased lower layer flow in easterly directions. On average, the net flow through the Stolpe channel is directed to the east which is in accordance with the mean circulation. Calculated fluxes show high intra- and inter-annual variability with no obvious trend during the simulation period. The variability of the deep water stratification in the deep basins of the Baltic Sea is directly controlled by the changing flux characteristics.

Description: A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to analyse temporally and spatially resolved circulation patterns in the Baltic Sea with special emphasis on drifting particles representing larval fish. The main purpose of this study was (i) to investigate potential drift patterns of larval fish, (ii) to identify its intra- and inter-annual variability for time periods based on the timing of spawning and (iii) to analyse its seasonal and spatial variability in dependence of the atmospheric forcing conditions. For the time period 1979–1998 temporally and spatially resolved simulated flow fields were used to describe the potential drift from the centre of main reproductive effort of Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). The results of the model runs demonstrate a general change in circulation pattern from retention during a first decade (1979–1988) to dispersion in the following decade (1989–1998). This increase in dispersion was related to an increase in the variability of the local wind forcing conditions over the Baltic. The more frequent occurrence of dispersion in spring of the recent decade was accompanied by a strong decay in biomass of one of the main larval fish feeding component in the central basin, the calanoid copepod Pseudocalanus elongatus. Larger dispersion of this prey organism may have affected the spatial overlap and thus the contact rates between predator and prey. Hence, this may have resulted in a food limitation for early life stages of Baltic cod and potentially contributed to the pronounced shift in cod peak spawning time from spring to late summer. Early life stages of cod originating from late spawning fish, benefited from a stronger dispersion in late summer and autumn, into shallow coastal areas with higher calanoid abundance.

Description: In order to clarify mechanisms influencing the reproductive success of Baltic cod (Gadus morhua L.), a modelling exercise was performed to examine the effects of the wind-driven circulation on the transport of early life stages between the western and eastern Baltic. Because the different stocks spawn in different areas and environments at different times of the year, the occurrence of variable age/length distributions of juveniles within the different potential nursery areas can be explained by the circulation pattern. A three-dimensional circulation model of the Baltic was utilized to investigate the temporal evolution of egg and larval distributions of the western Baltic cod stock, which spawns preferentially in the Danish Straits, in Kiel Bay as well as in Mecklenburg Bay. For different scenarios (1988 and 1993), within- and between-year variability of egg and larval transport showed large differences, primarily due to variations in wind forcing. In 1988, relatively low and variable wind forcing prevailed, whereas, due to sustained strong, mainly westerly, winds, in January 1993, the recent major Baltic inflow to the Baltic Sea occurred. Differences in contributions of early life stages from the western to the eastern cod stocks, depending on the physical forcing conditions, suggest that this process can be controlled by variations of atmospheric forcing conditions. The potential for early life stages from the western Baltic cod stock to drift into the Arkona Basin and the Bornholm Basin, and to contribute there to the juvenile population, has been recognized as being mainly due to strong westerly winds. During cold winters, retention of eggs, larvae and juveniles within their original spawning grounds may predominate. Transport of cod early life stages from the Øresund, as well as from the Great Belt, can occur only during periods of strong westerly winds, but significant eastwards orientated drift from Kiel Bay and Mecklenburg Bay was also evident during periods of minor westerly wind influence.