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  • American Meteorological Society  (10)
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  • American Meteorological Society  (10)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2005
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 133, No. 5 ( 2005-05-01), p. 1343-1352
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 133, No. 5 ( 2005-05-01), p. 1343-1352
    Abstract: To improve forecasting skills in the western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), the authors utilized and modified an intermediate El Niño prediction model. The original model does not have the major SST thermodynamics for western Pacific SST variability, so it cannot simulate interannual variation in the western Pacific correctly. Therefore, the authors have introduced some modifications, such as heat flux and vertical mixing, into the dynamical model in order to capture SST thermodynamics more realistically. The modified model has better forecast skill than the original one, not only for the western Pacific but also for the eastern-central Pacific. The model has predictive skill up to 6-months lead time as judged by a correlation exceeding 0.5.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0493 , 0027-0644
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2005
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2008
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 136, No. 9 ( 2008-09-01), p. 3501-3512
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 136, No. 9 ( 2008-09-01), p. 3501-3512
    Abstract: Every dynamical climate prediction model has significant errors in its mean state and anomaly field, thus degrading its performance in climate prediction. In addition to correcting the model’s systematic errors in the mean state, it is also possible to correct systematic errors in the predicted anomalies by means of dynamical or statistical postprocessing. In this study, a new statistical model has been developed based on the pattern projection method in order to empirically correct the dynamical seasonal climate prediction. The strength of the present model lies in the objective and automatic selection of optimal predictor grid points. The statistical model was applied to systematic error correction of SST anomalies predicted by Seoul National University’s (SNU) coupled GCM and evaluated in terms of temporal correlation skill and standardized root-mean-square error. It turns out that the statistical error correction improves the SST prediction over most regions of the global ocean with most forecast lead times up to 6 months. In particular, the SST predictions over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean are improved significantly, where the SNU coupled GCM shows a large error.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0493 , 0027-0644
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2008
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2005
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 18, No. 14 ( 2005-07-15), p. 2617-2627
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 18, No. 14 ( 2005-07-15), p. 2617-2627
    Abstract: The El Niño–La Niña asymmetry was estimated in the 10 different models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Large differences in the “asymmetricity” (a variance-weighted skewness) of SST anomalies are found between models and observations. Most of the coupled models underestimate the nonlinearity and only a few exhibit the positively skewed SST anomalies over the tropical eastern Pacific as seen in the observation. A significant association between the nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) and asymmetricity in the model–ENSO indices is found, inferring that asymmetricity is caused mainly by NDH. Among the 10 models, one coupled GCM simulates the asymmetricity of the tropical SST realistically, and its simulation manifests a strong relationship between the intensity and the propagating feature of ENSO—the strong ENSO events moving eastward and the weak ENSO events moving westward—which is consistent with the observation. Interestingly, the coupled general circulation models, of which the ocean model is based on the one used by Bryan and Cox, commonly showed the reasonably positive skewed ENSO. The decadal changes in the skewness, variance, and NDH of the model-simulated ENSO are also observed. These three quantities over the tropical eastern Pacific are significantly correlated to each other, indicating that the decadal change in ENSO variability is closely related to the nonlinear process of ENSO. It is also found that these decadal changes in ENSO variability are related to the decadal variation in the tropical Pacific SST, implying that the decadal change in the El Niño–La Niña asymmetry could manifest itself as a rectified change in the background state.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2005
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2007
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 135, No. 9 ( 2007-09-01), p. 3239-3247
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 135, No. 9 ( 2007-09-01), p. 3239-3247
    Abstract: In a tier-two seasonal prediction system, prior to AGCM integration, global SSTs should first be predicted as a boundary condition to the AGCM. In this study, a global SST prediction system has been developed as a part of the tier-two seasonal prediction system. This system uses predictions from four models—one dynamic, two statistical, and persistence—and a simple composite ensemble method is applied to these models. The simple composite ensemble prediction system has predictive skill over most of the global oceans for up to a 6-month forecast lead time. The simple ensemble method is also compared with other more sophisticated ensemble methods. The simple composite method has forecast skill comparable to the other ensemble methods over the ENSO region and significantly better skill outside the ENSO region.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0493 , 0027-0644
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2007
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2007
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 20, No. 4 ( 2007-02-15), p. 667-680
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 20, No. 4 ( 2007-02-15), p. 667-680
    Abstract: This diagnostic study explores the generation of decadal variability in the North Pacific resulting from the asymmetry of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon and the nonlinearity of the atmospheric tropical–extratropical teleconnection. Nonlinear regression analysis of the North Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric fields with respect to the ENSO index reveals that the main teleconnection centers shift between El Niño and La Niña years. This asymmetry in the ENSO response, together with the skewed probabilistic distribution of ENSO itself, may contribute to the generation of the long-term decadal variability of sea surface temperatures in the extratropical North Pacific. It is argued that this hypothesis may explain the significant variance of the observed Pacific decadal oscillation in the extratropics.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2007
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2006
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 19, No. 9 ( 2006-05-01), p. 1784-1801
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 19, No. 9 ( 2006-05-01), p. 1784-1801
    Abstract: A feedback process of the Indian Ocean SST on ENSO is investigated by using observed data and atmospheric GCM. It is suggested that warming in the Indian Ocean produces an easterly wind stress anomaly over Indonesia and the western edge of the Pacific during the mature phase of El Niño. The anomalous easterly wind in the western Pacific during El Niño helps a rapid termination of El Niño and a fast transition to La Niña by generating upwelling Kelvin waves. Thus, warming in the Indian Ocean, which is a part of the El Niño signal, operates as a negative feedback mechanism to ENSO. This Indian Ocean feedback appears to operate mostly for relatively strong El Niños and results in a La Niña one year after the mature phase of the El Niño. This 1-yr period of phase transition implies a possible role of Indian Ocean–ENSO coupling in the biennial tendency of the ENSO. Atmospheric GCM experiments show that Indian Ocean SST forcing is mostly responsible for the easterly wind anomalies in the western Pacific.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2006
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 19, No. 24 ( 2006-12-15), p. 6371-6381
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 19, No. 24 ( 2006-12-15), p. 6371-6381
    Abstract: An interactive feedback between ENSO and the Indian Ocean is investigated using a Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) interactive ensemble coupled model. From a long-term simulation of the coupled GCM, it is shown that El Niño events terminate relatively rapidly when the Indian Ocean SST is anomalously warm. The anomalous Indian Ocean warming induces the anomalous easterlies over the western Pacific by modulating the Walker circulation. In turn, the anomalous easterlies generate oceanic-upwelling Kelvin waves over the western Pacific, which propagate eastward and accelerate the decay of the warm SST in the eastern Pacific. As a result, El Niño terminates relatively quickly, and the phase transition from El Niño to La Niña progresses rapidly. These interactive processes are consistent with those derived from the previous observational analyses.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2004
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 17, No. 12 ( 2004-06), p. 2478-2488
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 17, No. 12 ( 2004-06), p. 2478-2488
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2004
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2008
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 21, No. 1 ( 2008-01-01), p. 3-21
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 21, No. 1 ( 2008-01-01), p. 3-21
    Abstract: The multidecadal modulation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) due to greenhouse warming has been analyzed herein by means of diagnostics of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) and the eigenanalysis of a simplified version of an intermediate ENSO model. The response of the global-mean troposphere temperature to increasing greenhouse gases is more likely linear, while the amplitude and period of ENSO fluctuates in a multidecadal time scale. The climate system model outputs suggest that the multidecadal modulation of ENSO is related to the delayed response of the subsurface temperature in the tropical Pacific compared to the response time of the sea surface temperature (SST), which would lead a modulation of the vertical temperature gradient. Furthermore, an eigenanalysis considering only two parameters, the changes in the zonal contrast of the mean background SST and the changes in the vertical contrast between the mean surface and subsurface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, exhibits a good agreement with the CGCM outputs in terms of the multidecadal modulations of the ENSO amplitude and period. In particular, the change in the vertical contrast, that is, change in difference between the subsurface temperature and SST, turns out to be more influential on the ENSO modulation than changes in the mean SST itself.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2008
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2010
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 23, No. 5 ( 2010-03-01), p. 1095-1110
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 23, No. 5 ( 2010-03-01), p. 1095-1110
    Abstract: The influence of the tropical Pacific annual-mean state on the annual-cycle amplitude and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is studied using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology coupled general circulation model (CGCM) ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM1). In a greenhouse warming experiment, an intensified annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Pacific is associated with reduced ENSO variability, and vice versa. Analysis showed that the annual-mean states, especially the surface warming in the western Pacific and the thermocline deepening in the central Pacific, which is concurrent with the strong annual cycle, act to suppress ENSO amplitude and to intensify the annual-cycle amplitude, and vice versa. The western Pacific warming acts to reduce air–sea coupling strength and to shorten the ocean adjustment time scale, and the deepening of central Pacific thermocline acts to diminish vertical advection of the anomalous ocean temperature by the annual-mean upwelling. Consequently, ENSO activity is suppressed by the annual-mean states during the strong annual-cycle decades, and the opposite case associated with the weak annual-cycle decades is also true. Furthermore, the time integration of an intermediate ENSO model forced with different background state configurations, and a stability analysis of its linearized version, show that annual-mean background states during the weak (strong) annual-cycle decades are characterized by an enhanced (reduced) linear growth rate of ENSO or similarly large (small) variability of ENSO. However, the annual-cycle component of the background state changes cannot significantly modify ENSO variability. Using a hybrid coupled model, it is demonstrated that diagnosed annual-mean background states corresponding to a reduced (enhanced) annual cycle suppress (enhance) the development of the annual cycle of SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific, mainly through the weakening (intensifying) of zonal temperature advection of annual-mean SST by the annual-cycle zonal current. The above results support the idea that climate background state changes control both ENSO and the annual-cycle amplitude in opposing ways.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2010
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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