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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2018
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 31, No. 13 ( 2018-07), p. 5243-5261
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 31, No. 13 ( 2018-07), p. 5243-5261
    Abstract: Basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is expected to increase during the twenty-first century as the ocean warms, which will have consequences for ice sheet stability and global sea level rise. Here we present future projections of Antarctic ice shelf melting using the Finite Element Sea Ice/Ice-Shelf Ocean Model (FESOM) forced with atmospheric output from models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). CMIP5 models are chosen based on their agreement with historical atmospheric reanalyses over the Southern Ocean; the best-performing models are ACCESS 1.0 and the CMIP5 multimodel mean. Their output is bias-corrected for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. During the twenty-first-century simulations, total ice shelf basal mass loss increases by between 41% and 129%. Every sector of Antarctica shows increased basal melting in every scenario, with the largest increases occurring in the Amundsen Sea. The main mechanism driving this melting is an increase in warm Circumpolar Deep Water on the Antarctic continental shelf. A reduction in wintertime sea ice formation simulated during the twenty-first century stratifies the water column, allowing a warm bottom layer to develop and intrude into ice shelf cavities. This effect may be overestimated in the Amundsen Sea because of a cold bias in the present-day simulation. Other consequences of weakened sea ice formation include freshening of High Salinity Shelf Water and warming of Antarctic Bottom Water. Furthermore, freshening around the Antarctic coast in our simulations causes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to weaken and the Antarctic Coastal Current to strengthen.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 28, No. 18 ( 2015-09-15), p. 7385-7406
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 28, No. 18 ( 2015-09-15), p. 7385-7406
    Abstract: Climate model projections and observations show a faster rate of warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH). This asymmetry is partly due to faster rates of warming over the land than the ocean, and partly due to the ocean circulation redistributing heat toward the NH. This study examines the interhemispheric warming asymmetry in an intermediate complexity coupled climate model with eddy-permitting (0.25°) ocean resolution, and results are compared with a similar model with coarse (1°) ocean resolution. The models use a pole-to-pole 60° wide sector domain in the ocean and a 120° wide sector in the atmosphere, with Atlantic-like bathymetry and a simple land model. There is a larger high-latitude ocean temperature asymmetry in the 0.25° model compared with the 1° model, both in equilibrated control runs and in response to greenhouse warming. The larger warming asymmetry is caused by greater melting of NH sea ice in the 0.25° model, associated with faster, less viscous boundary currents transporting heat northward. The SH sea ice and heat transport response is relatively insensitive to the resolution change, since the eddy heat transport differences between the models are small compared with the mean flow heat transport. When a wind shift and intensification is applied in these warming scenarios, the warming asymmetry is further enhanced, with greater upwelling of cool water in the Southern Ocean and enhanced warming in the NH. Surface air temperatures show a substantial but lesser degree of high-latitude warming asymmetry, reflecting the sea surface warming patterns over the ocean but warming more symmetrically over the land regions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 30, No. 12 ( 2017-06), p. 4763-4776
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 30, No. 12 ( 2017-06), p. 4763-4776
    Abstract: Low-frequency internal climate variability (ICV) plays an important role in modulating global surface temperature, regional climate, and climate extremes. However, it has not been completely characterized in the instrumental record and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble. In this study, the surface temperature ICV of the North Pacific (NP), North Atlantic (NA), and Northern Hemisphere (NH) in the instrumental record and historical CMIP5 all-forcing simulations is isolated using a semiempirical method wherein the CMIP5 ensemble mean is applied as the external forcing signal and removed from each time series. Comparison of ICV signals derived from this semiempirical method as well as from analysis of ICV in CMIP5 preindustrial control runs reveals disagreement in the spatial pattern and amplitude between models and instrumental data on multidecadal time scales ( 〉 20 yr). Analysis of the amplitude of total variability and the ICV in the models and instrumental data indicates that the models underestimate ICV amplitude on low-frequency time scales ( 〉 20 yr in the NA; 〉 40 yr in the NP), while agreement is found in the NH variability. A multiple linear regression analysis of ICV in the instrumental record shows that variability in the NP drives decadal-to-interdecadal variability in the NH, whereas the NA drives multidecadal variability in the NH. Analysis of the CMIP5 historical simulations does not reveal such a relationship, indicating model limitations in simulating ICV. These findings demonstrate the need to better characterize low-frequency ICV, which may help improve attribution and decadal prediction.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 30, No. 15 ( 2017-08), p. 5775-5790
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 30, No. 15 ( 2017-08), p. 5775-5790
    Abstract: The response of the global climate system to Drake Passage (DP) closure is examined using a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere–ice model. Unlike most previous studies, a full three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation model is included with a complete hydrological cycle and a freely evolving wind field, as well as a coupled dynamic–thermodynamic sea ice module. Upon DP closure the initial response is found to be consistent with previous ocean-only and intermediate-complexity climate model studies, with an expansion and invigoration of the Antarctic meridional overturning, along with a slowdown in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) production. This results in a dominance of Southern Ocean poleward geostrophic flow and Antarctic sinking when DP is closed. However, within just a decade of DP closure, the increased southward heat transport has melted back a substantial fraction of Antarctic sea ice. At the same time the polar oceans warm by 4°–6°C on the zonal mean, and the maximum strength of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies weakens by ≃10%. These effects, not captured in models without ice and atmosphere feedbacks, combine to force Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) to warm and freshen, to the point that this water mass becomes less dense than NADW. This leads to a marked contraction of the Antarctic overturning, allowing NADW to ventilate the abyssal ocean once more. Poleward heat transport settles back to very similar values as seen in the unperturbed DP open case. Yet remarkably, the equilibrium climate in the closed DP configuration retains a strong Southern Hemisphere warming, similar to past studies with no dynamic atmosphere. However, here it is ocean–atmosphere–ice feedbacks, primarily the ice-albedo feedback and partly the weakened midlatitude jet, not a vigorous southern sinking, which maintain the warm polar oceans. This demonstrates that DP closure can drive a hemisphere-scale warming with polar amplification, without the presence of any vigorous Southern Hemisphere overturning circulation. Indeed, DP closure leads to warming that is sufficient over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to inhibit ice-sheet growth. This highlights the importance of the DP gap, Antarctic sea ice, and the associated ice-albedo feedback in maintaining the present-day glacial state over Antarctica.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 5
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 30, No. 23 ( 2017-12), p. 9773-9782
    Abstract: In a comment on a 2017 paper by Cheung et al., Kravtsov states that the results of Cheung et al. are invalidated by errors in the method used to estimate internal variability in historical surface temperatures, which involves using the ensemble mean of simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to estimate the forced signal. Kravtsov claims that differences between the forced signals in the individual models and as defined by the multimodel ensemble mean lead to errors in the assessment of internal variability in both model simulations and the instrumental record. Kravtsov proposes a different method, which instead uses CMIP5 models with at least four realizations to define the forced component. Here, it is shown that the conclusions of Cheung et al. are valid regardless of whether the method of Cheung et al. or that of Kravtsov is applied. Furthermore, many of the points raised by Kravtsov are discussed in Cheung et al., and the disagreements of Kravtsov appear to be mainly due to a misunderstanding of the aims of Cheung et al.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2023
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 36, No. 18 ( 2023-09-15), p. 6465-6479
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 36, No. 18 ( 2023-09-15), p. 6465-6479
    Abstract: Winds around the Antarctic continental margin are known to exert a strong control on the local ocean stratification and circulation. However, past work has largely focused on the ocean response to changing winds in limited regional sectors and the circumpolar dynamical response to polar wind change remains uncertain. In this work, we use a high-resolution global ocean–sea ice model to investigate how dense shelf water formation and the temperature of continental shelf waters respond to changes in the zonal and meridional components of the polar surface winds. Increasing the zonal easterly wind component drives an enhanced southward Ekman transport in the surface layer, raising sea level over the continental shelf and deepening coastal isopycnals. The downward isopycnal movement cools the continental shelf, as colder surface waters replace warmer waters below. However, in this model the zonal easterly winds do not impact the strength of the abyssal overturning circulation, in contrast to past idealized model studies. Instead, increasing the meridional wind speed strengthens the abyssal overturning circulation via a sea ice advection mechanism. Enhanced offshore meridional wind speed increases the northward export of sea ice, resulting in decreased sea ice thickness over the continental shelf. The reduction in sea ice coverage leads to increased air–sea heat loss, sea ice formation, brine rejection, dense shelf water formation, and abyssal overturning circulation. Increasing the meridional winds causes warming at depth over most of the continental shelf, due to a heat advection feedback associated with the enhanced overturning circulation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 28, No. 10 ( 2015-05-15), p. 4263-4278
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 28, No. 10 ( 2015-05-15), p. 4263-4278
    Abstract: This study explores how buoyancy-driven modulations in the abyssal overturning circulation affect Southern Ocean temperature and salinity in an eddy-permitting ocean model. Consistent with previous studies, the modeled surface ocean south of 50°S cools and freshens in response to enhanced surface freshwater fluxes. Paradoxically, upper-ocean cooling also occurs for small increases in the surface relaxation temperature. In both cases, the surface cooling and freshening trends are linked to reduced convection and a slowing of the abyssal overturning circulation, with associated changes in oceanic transport of heat and salt. For small perturbations, convective shutdown does not begin immediately, but instead develops via a slow feedback between the weakened overturning circulation and buoyancy anomalies. Two distinct phases of surface cooling are found: an initial smaller trend associated with the advective (overturning) adjustment of up to ~60 yr, followed by more rapid surface cooling during the convective shutdown period. The duration of the first advective phase decreases for larger forcing perturbations. As may be expected during the convective shutdown phase, the deep ocean warms and salinifies for both types of buoyancy perturbation. However, during the advective phase, the deep ocean freshens in response to freshwater perturbations but salinifies in the surface warming perturbations. The magnitudes of the modeled surface and abyssal trends during the advective phase are comparable to the recent observed multidecadal Southern Ocean temperature and salinity changes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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