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  • 1
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    Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise (2021)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 2
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    Biogeographic gradients of picoplankton diversity indicate increasing dominance of prokaryotes in warmer Arctic fjords (2024)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-03
    Description: Climate change is opening the Arctic Ocean to increasing human impact and ecosystem changes. Arctic fjords, the region’s most productive ecosystems, are sustained by a diverse microbial community at the base of the food web. Here we show that Arctic fjords become more prokaryotic in the picoplankton (0.2–3 µm) with increasing water temperatures. Across 21 fjords, we found that Arctic fjords had proportionally more trophically diverse (autotrophic, mixotrophic, and heterotrophic) picoeukaryotes, while subarctic and temperate fjords had relatively more diverse prokaryotic trophic groups. Modeled oceanographic connectivity between fjords suggested that transport alone would create a smooth gradient in beta diversity largely following the North Atlantic Current and East Greenland Current. Deviations from this suggested that picoeukaryotes had some strong regional patterns in beta diversity that reduced the effect of oceanographic connectivity, while prokaryotes were mainly stopped in their dispersal if strong temperature differences between sites were present. Fjords located in high Arctic regions also generally had very low prokaryotic alpha diversity. Ultimately, warming of Arctic fjords could induce a fundamental shift from more trophic diverse eukaryotic- to prokaryotic-dominated communities, with profound implications for Arctic ecosystem dynamics including their productivity patterns.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 3
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    FRIS revisited in 2018: on the circulation and water masses at the Filchner and Ronne Ice Shelves in the Southern Weddell Sea (2021)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Janout, M. A., Hellmer, H. H., Hattermann, T., Huhn, O., Sueltenfuss, J., Osterhus, S., Stulic, L., Ryan, S., Schroeder, M., & Kanzow, T. FRIS revisited in 2018: on the circulation and water masses at the Filchner and Ronne Ice Shelves in the Southern Weddell Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 126(6), (2021): e2021JC017269, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017269.
    Description: The Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) is characterized by moderate basal melt rates due to the near-freezing waters that dominate the wide southern Weddell Sea continental shelf. We revisited the region in austral summer 2018 with detailed hydrographic and noble gas surveys along FRIS. The FRIS front was characterized by High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) in Ronne Depression, Ice Shelf Water (ISW) on its eastern flank, and an inflow of modified Warm Deep Water (mWDW) entering through Central Trough. Filchner Trough was dominated by Ronne HSSW-sourced ISW, likely forced by a recently intensified circulation beneath FRIS due to enhanced sea ice production in the Ronne polynya since 2015. Glacial meltwater fractions and tracer-based water mass dating indicate two separate ISW outflow cores, one hugging the Berkner slope after a two-year travel time, and the other located in the central Filchner Trough following a ∼six year-long transit through the FRIS cavity. Historical measurements indicate the presence of two distinct modes, in which water masses in Filchner Trough were dominated by either Ronne HSSW-derived ISW (Ronne-mode) or more locally derived Berkner-HSSW (Berkner-mode). While the dominance of these modes has alternated on interannual time scales, ocean densities in Filchner Trough have remained remarkably stable since the first surveys in 1980. Indeed, geostrophic velocities indicated outflowing ISW-cores along the trough's western flank and onto Berkner Bank, which suggests that Ronne-ISW preconditions Berkner-HSSW production. The negligible density difference between Berkner- and Ronne-mode waters indicates that each contributes cold dense shelf waters to protect FRIS against inflowing mWDW.
    Description: This study used samples and data provided by the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Center for Polar- and Marine Research in Bremerhaven (Grant No. AWI-PS111_01). The authors thank Captain Schwarze and the crew of RV Polarstern for a very successful expedition. We acknowledge support from the EU Horizon 2020 grants 820575 (HHH, SØ) and 821001 (TK, SØ).
    Keywords: Ocean circulation ; Ocean-ice shelf interaction ; Water masses ; Weddell Sea ; Filcher and Ronne shelves
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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    PAPER (OA)
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