GLORIA

GEOMAR Library Ocean Research Information Access

feed icon rss

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
Filter
  • OceanRep  (2)
  • Wiley  (2)
  • Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research
Document type
Publisher
Years
  • 1
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (15). pp. 6454-6461.
    Publication Date: 2017-04-10
    Description: We use surface air temperature to evaluate the decadal forecast skill of the fully coupled Max Planck Institut Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) initialized using only surface wind stress applied to the ocean component of the model (Modini: Model initialization by partially coupled spin-up). Our analysis shows that the greenhouse gas forcing alone results in a significant forecast skill on the 2–5 and 6–9 year range even for uninitialized hindcasts. For the first forecast year, the forecast skill of Modini is generally comparable with previous initialization procedures applied to MPI-ESM. But only Modini is able to generate a significant skill (correlation) in the tropical Pacific for a 2–5 year (and to a lesser extent for a 6–9 year) hindcast. Modini is also better able to capture the observed hiatus in global warming in hindcast mode than the other methods. Finally, we present forecasts for 2015 and the average of years 2016–2019 and 2020–2024, predicting an end to the hiatus.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-01-07
    Description: Drift is a prominent parameter characterizing the Arctic sea ice cover that has a deep impact on the climate system. Hence it is a key issue to both the remote sensing as well as the modeling community, to provide reliable sea ice drift fields. This study focuses on the comparison of sea ice drift results from different sea ice‐ocean coupled models and the validation with observational data in the period 1979–2001. The models all take part in the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP) and the observations are mainly based on satellite imagery. According to speed distributions, one class of models has a mode at drift speeds around 3 cm s −1 and a short tail toward higher speeds. Another class shows a more even frequency distribution with large probability of drift speeds of 10 to 20 cm s −1 . Observations clearly agree better with the first class of model results. Reasons for these differences are manifold and lie in discrepancies of wind stress forcing as well as sea ice model characteristics and sea ice‐ocean coupling. Moreover, we investigated the drift patterns of anticyclonic and cyclonic wind‐driven regimes. The models are capable of producing realistic drift pattern variability. The winter of 1994/1995 stands out because of its maximum in Fram Strait ice export. Although export estimates of some models agree with observations, the corresponding inner Arctic drift pattern is not reproduced. The reason for this is found in the wind‐forcing as well as in differences in ocean velocities.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...