Description: Observational studies report a rapid decline of ocean CO2 uptake in the temperate North Atlantic during the last decade. We analyze these findings using ocean physical‐biological numerical simulations forced with interannually varying atmospheric conditions for the period 1979–2004. In the simulations, surface ocean water mass properties and CO2 system variables exhibit substantial multiannual variability on sub‐basin scales in response to wind‐driven reorganization in ocean circulation and surface warming/cooling. The simulated temporal evolution of the ocean CO2 system is broadly consistent with reported observational trends and is influenced substantially by the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Many of the observational estimates cover a period after 1995 of mostly negative or weakly positive NAO conditions, which are characterized in the simulations by reduced North Atlantic Current transport of subtropical waters into the eastern basin and by a decline in CO2 uptake. We suggest therefore that air‐sea CO2 uptake may rebound in the eastern temperate North Atlantic during future periods of more positive NAO, similar to the patterns found in our model for the sustained positive NAO period in the early 1990s. Thus, our analysis indicates that the recent rapid shifts in CO2 flux reflect decadal perturbations superimposed on more gradual secular trends. The simulations highlight the need for long‐term ocean carbon observations and modeling to fully resolve multiannual variability, which can obscure detection of the long‐term changes associated with anthropogenic CO2 uptake and climate change.

Description: The coastal ocean contributes to regulating atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations by taking up carbon dioxide (CO2) and releasing nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). In this second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2), we quantify global coastal ocean fluxes of CO2, N2O and CH4 using an ensemble of global gap-filled observation-based products and ocean biogeochemical models. The global coastal ocean is a net sink of CO2 in both observational products and models, but the magnitude of the median net global coastal uptake is similar to 60% larger in models (-0.72 vs. -0.44 PgC year-1, 1998-2018, coastal ocean extending to 300 km offshore or 1,000 m isobath with area of 77 million km2). We attribute most of this model-product difference to the seasonality in sea surface CO2 partial pressure at mid- and high-latitudes, where models simulate stronger winter CO2 uptake. The coastal ocean CO2 sink has increased in the past decades but the available time-resolving observation-based products and models show large discrepancies in the magnitude of this increase. The global coastal ocean is a major source of N2O (+0.70 PgCO2-e year-1 in observational product and +0.54 PgCO2-e year-1 in model median) and CH4 (+0.21 PgCO2-e year-1 in observational product), which offsets a substantial proportion of the coastal CO2 uptake in the net radiative balance (30%-60% in CO2-equivalents), highlighting the importance of considering the three greenhouse gases when examining the influence of the coastal ocean on climate. The coastal ocean regulates greenhouse gases. It acts as a sink of carbon dioxide (CO2) but also releases nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) into the atmosphere. This synthesis contributes to the second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2) and provides a comprehensive view of the coastal air-sea fluxes of these three greenhouse gases at the global scale. We use a multi-faceted approach combining gap-filled observation-based products and ocean biogeochemical models. We show that the global coastal ocean is a net sink of CO2 in both observational products and models, but the coastal uptake of CO2 is similar to 60% larger in models than in observation-based products due to model-product differences in seasonality. The coastal CO2 sink is strengthening but the magnitude of this strengthening is poorly constrained. We also find that the coastal emissions of N2O and CH4 counteract a substantial part of the effect of coastal CO2 uptake in the atmospheric radiative balance (by 30%-60% in CO2-equivalents), highlighting the need to consider these three gases together to understand the influence of the coastal ocean on climate. We synthesize air-sea fluxes of CO2, nitrous oxide and methane in the global coastal ocean using observation-based products and ocean models The coastal ocean CO2 sink is 60% larger in ocean models than in observation-based products due to systematic differences in seasonality Coastal nitrous oxide and methane emissions offset 30%-60% of the CO2 coastal uptake in the net radiative balance