Description: Spaceborne sea surface salinity (SSS) measurements provided by the European Space Agency's (ESA) “Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity” (SMOS) and the National Aeronautical Space Agency's (NASA) “Aquarius/SAC-D” missions, covering the period from May 2012 to April 2013, are compared against in situ salinity measurements obtained in the northern North Atlantic between 20°N and 80°N. In cold water, SMOS SSS fields show a temperature-dependent negative SSS bias of up to −2 g/kg for temperatures 〈5°C. Removing this bias significantly reduces the differences to independent ship-based thermosalinograph data but potentially corrects simultaneously also other effects not related to temperature, such as land contamination or radio frequency interference (RFI). The resulting time-mean bias, averaged over the study area, amounts to 0.1 g/kg. A respective correction applied previously by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to the Aquarius data is shown here to have successfully removed an SST-related bias in our study area. For both missions, resulting spatial structures of SSS variability agree very well with those available from an eddy-resolving numerical simulation and from Argo data and, additionally they also show substantial salinity changes on monthly and seasonal time scales. Some fraction of the root-mean-square difference between in situ, and SMOS and Aquarius data (approximately 0.9 g/kg) can be attributed to short time scale ocean processes, notably at the Greenland shelf, and could represent associated sampling errors there.

Description: The Sea surface KInematics Multiscale monitoring (SKIM) satellite mission is designed to explore ocean surface current and waves. This includes tropical currents, notably the unknown patterns of divergence and their impact on the ocean heat budget near the Equator, monitoring of the emerging Arctic up to 82.5$(\circ)$N. SKIM will also make unprecedented direct measurements of strong currents, from boundary currents to the Antarctic circumpolar current, and their interaction with ocean waves with expected impacts on air-sea fluxes and extreme waves. For the first time, SKIM will directly measure the ocean surface current vector from space. The main instrument on SKIM is a Ka-band conically scanning, multi-beam Doppler radar altimeter/wave scatterometer that includes a state-of-the-art nadir beam comparable to the Poseidon-4 instrument on Sentinel 6. The well proven Doppler pulse-pair technique will give a surface drift velocity representative of the top two meters of the ocean, after subtracting a large wave-induced contribution. Horizontal velocity components will be obtained with an accuracy better than 7 cm/s for horizontal wavelengths larger than 80~km and time resolutions larger than 15 days, with a mean revisit time of 4 days for of 99\% of the global oceans. This will provide unique and innovative measurements that will further our understanding of the transports in the upper ocean layer, permanently distributing heat, carbon, plankton, and plastics. SKIM will also benefit from co-located measurements of water vapor, rain rate, sea ice concentration, and wind vectors provided by the European operational satellite MetOp-SG(B), allowing many joint analyses. SKIM is one of the two candidate satellite missions under development for ESA Earth Explorer 9. The other candidate is the Far infrared Radiation Understanding and Monitoring (FORUM). The final selection will be announced by September 2019, for a launch in the coming decade.

Description: Five initialization and ensemble generation methods are investigated with respect to their impact on the prediction skill of the German decadal prediction system "Mittelfristige Klimaprognose" (MiKlip). Among the tested methods, three tackle aspects of model‐consistent initialization using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the filtered anomaly initialization (FAI) and the initialization method by partially coupled spin‐up (MODINI). The remaining two methods alter the ensemble generation: the ensemble dispersion filter (EDF) corrects each ensemble member with the ensemble mean during model integration. And the bred vectors (BV) perturb the climate state using the fastest growing modes. The new methods are compared against the latest MiKlip system in the low‐resolution configuration (Preop‐LR), which uses lagging the climate state by a few days for ensemble generation and nudging toward ocean and atmosphere reanalyses for initialization. Results show that the tested methods provide an added value for the prediction skill as compared to Preop‐LR in that they improve prediction skill over the eastern and central Pacific and different regions in the North Atlantic Ocean. In this respect, the EnKF and FAI show the most distinct improvements over Preop‐LR for surface temperatures and upper ocean heat content, followed by the BV, the EDF and MODINI. However, no single method exists that is superior to the others with respect to all metrics considered. In particular, all methods affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in different ways, both with respect to the basin‐wide long‐term mean and variability, and with respect to the temporal evolution at the 26° N latitude.

Description: Sources of near-surface oceanic variability in the central North Atlantic are identified from a combined analysis of climatology, surface drifter, and Geosat altimeter data as well as eddy-resolving math formula and math formula Community Modeling Effort North Atlantic model results. Both observational and numerical methods give a consistent picture of the concentration of mesoscale variability along the mean zonal flow bands. Three areas of high eddy energy can be found in all observational data sets: the North Equatorial Current, the North Atlantic Current, and the Azores Current. With increasing horizontal resolution the numerical models give a more realistic representation of the variability in the first two regimes, while no improvement is found with respect to the Azores Current Frontal Zone. Examination of the upper ocean hydrographic structure indicates baroclinic instability to be the main mechanism of eddy generation and suggests that the model deficiencies in the Azores Current area are related to deficiencies in the mean hydrographic fields. A linear instability analysis of the numerical model output reveals that instability based on the velocity shear between the mixed layer and the interior is also important for the generation of the mid-ocean variability, indicating a potential role of the mixed layer representation for the model. The math formula model successfully simulates the northward decrease of eddy length scales observed in the altimeter data, which follow a linear relationship with the first baroclinic Rossby radius. An analysis of the eddy-mean flow interaction terms and the energy budget indicates a release of mean potential energy by downgradient fluxes of heat in the main frontal zones. At the same time the North Atlantic Current is found to be supported by convergent eddy fluxes of zonal momentum.

Description: Non-technical summary. We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference. Social media summary. We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research – with input from more than 200 experts.