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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-01-08
    Description: We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including: (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties; (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections; (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlights the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large (〉 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see a substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, timescale and emissions scenario.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2015-11-04
    Description: Objective Clinicians predominantly use clinical features to differentiate type 1 from type 2 diabetes yet there are no evidence-based clinical criteria to aid classification of patients. Misclassification of diabetes is widespread (7–15% of cases), resulting in patients receiving inappropriate treatment. We sought to identify which clinical criteria could be used to discriminate type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Design Systematic review of all diagnostic accuracy studies published since 1979 using clinical criteria to predict insulin deficiency (measured by C-peptide). Data sources 14 databases including: MEDLINE, MEDLINE in Process and EMBASE. The search strategy took the form of: (terms for diabetes) AND (terms for C-Peptide). Eligibility criteria Diagnostic accuracy studies of any routinely available clinical predictors against a reference standard of insulin deficiency defined by cut-offs of C-peptide concentrations. No restrictions on race, age, language or country of origin. Results 10 917 abstracts were screened, and 231 full texts reviewed. 11 studies met inclusion criteria, but varied by age, race, year and proportion of participants who were C-peptide negative. Age at diagnosis was the most discriminatory feature in 7/9 studies where it was assessed, with optimal cut-offs (〉70% mean sensitivity and specificity) across studies being 〈30 years or 〈40 years. Use of/time to insulin treatment and body mass index (BMI) were also discriminatory. When combining features, BMI added little over age at diagnosis and/or time to insulin (〈1% improvement in classification). Conclusions Despite finding only 11 studies, and considerable heterogeneity between studies, age at diagnosis and time to insulin were consistently the most discriminatory criteria. BMI, despite being widely used in clinical practice, adds little to these two criteria. The criteria identified are similar to the Royal College of General Practitioners National Health Service (RCGP/NHS) Diabetes classification guidelines, which use age at diagnosis 〈35 years and time to insulin 〈6 m. Until further studies are carried out, these guidelines represent a suitable classification scheme. Systematic review registration PROSPERO reference CRD42012001736.
    Keywords: Open access, Evidence based practice, Diabetes and Endocrinology
    Electronic ISSN: 2044-6055
    Topics: Medicine
    Published by BMJ Publishing
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2014-04-19
    Description: This work presents new ab initio relativistic calculations using the multiconfiguration Dirac–Hartree–Fock method of some O i and O iii transition lines detected in B-type and Wolf–Rayet stars. Our results are the first able to be presented in both the length and velocity gauges, with excellent gauge convergence. Compared to previous experimental and theoretical uncertainties of up to 50 per cent, our accuracies appear to be in the range of 0.33–5.60 per cent, with gauge convergence up to 0.6 per cent. Similar impressive convergence of the calculated energies is also shown. Two sets of theoretical computations are compared with earlier tabulated measurements. Excellent agreement is obtained with one set of transitions but an interesting and consistent discrepancy exists between the current work and the prior literature, deserving of future experimental studies.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
    Topics: Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2012-07-20
    Description: Aims Female gender is a risk factor for long QT-related arrhythmias, but the underlying mechanisms remain uncertain. Here, we tested the hypothesis that gender-dependent function of the post-depolarization ‘late’ sodium current (I Na-L ) contributes. Methods and results Studies were conducted in mice in which the canonical cardiac sodium channel Scn5a locus was disrupted, and expression of human wild-type SCN5A cDNA substituted. Baseline QT intervals were similar in male and female mice, but exposure to the sodium channel opener anemone toxin ATX-II elicited polymorphic ventricular tachycardia in 0/9 males vs. 6/9 females. Ventricular I Na-L and action potential durations were increased in myocytes isolated from female mice compared with those from males before and especially after treatment with ATX-II. Further, ATX-II elicited potentially arrhythmogenic early afterdepolarizations in myocytes from 0/5 male mice and 3/5 female mice. Conclusion These data identify variable late I Na as a modulator of gender-dependent arrhythmia susceptibility.
    Print ISSN: 0008-6363
    Electronic ISSN: 1755-3245
    Topics: Medicine
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2014-05-25
    Description: We investigated prevalence of and knowledge about tobacco use among physicians, and their counselling of patients in the Odessa region (Ukraine). Paediatricians (40), family doctors (40) and interns (70) were selected from the physician population of the Odessa region. The proportion of smokers was unacceptably high for health care professionals: paediatricians, 32.5%; family doctors, 37.5%; and interns, 50%. Majority of smokers were men. Less than half of smokers had considered quitting or seriously attempted to quit. Interns least frequently asked their patients about smoking (52.5 vs. 80% paediatricians and 72.5% family doctors). Ukrainian universities need to better educate medical students on tobacco control measures.
    Print ISSN: 1101-1262
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-360X
    Topics: Medicine
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