Description: Ocean acidification severely affects bivalves, especially their larval stages. Consequently, the fate of this ecologically and economically important group depends on the capacity and rate of evolutionary adaptation to altered ocean carbonate chemistry. We document successful settlement of wild mussel larvae (Mytilus edulis) in a periodically CO2-enriched habitat. The larval fitness of the population originating from the CO2-enriched habitat was compared to the response of a population from a nonenriched habitat in a common garden experiment. The high CO2–adapted population showed higher fitness under elevated Pco2 (partial pressure of CO2) than the non-adapted cohort, demonstrating, for the first time, an evolutionary response of a natural mussel population to ocean acidification. To assess the rate of adaptation, we performed a selection experiment over three generations. CO2 tolerance differed substantially between the families within the F1 generation, and survival was drastically decreased in the highest, yet realistic, Pco2 treatment. Selection of CO2-tolerant F1 animals resulted in higher calcification performance of F2 larvae during early shell formation but did not improve overall survival. Our results thus reveal significant short-term selective responses of traits directly affected by ocean acidification and long-term adaptation potential in a key bivalve species. Because immediate response to selection did not directly translate into increased fitness, multigenerational studies need to take into consideration the multivariate nature of selection acting in natural habitats. Combinations of short-term selection with long-term adaptation in populations from CO2-enriched versus nonenriched natural habitats represent promising approaches for estimating adaptive potential of organisms facing global change.

Description: Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.

Description: Predicting the implications of ongoing ocean climate warming demands a better understanding of how short-term thermal variability impacts marine ectotherms, particularly at beyond-optimal average conditions during summer heatwaves. Using a globally important model species, the blue mussel Mytilus, in a 5-week-long experiment, we (a) assessed growth performance traits under 12 scenarios, consisting of four thermal averages (18.5, 21, 23.5 and 26℃) imposed as constant or daily fluctuating regimes with amplitudes of 2 or 4℃. Additionally, we conducted a short-term assay using different mussel individuals to (b) test for the species capacity for suppression and recovery of metabolic performance traits (feeding and aerobic respiration) when exposed to a 1-day thermal fluctuation regime (16.8–30.5℃). Using this high-resolution data, we (c) generated short-term thermal metabolic performance curves to predict and explain growth responses observed in the long-term experiment. We found that daily high-amplitude thermal cycles (4℃) improved mussel growth when fluctuations were imposed around an extreme average temperature of 26℃, representing end-of-century heatwaves. In contrast, thermal cycles negatively affected mussel growth at a less extreme average temperature of 23.5℃, resembling current peak summer temperature scenarios. These results suggest that fluctuations ameliorate heat stress impacts only at critically high average temperatures. The short-term assay demonstrated that during the warming phase, animals stopped feeding between 24 and 30℃ while gradually suppressing respiration. In the subsequent cooling phase, feeding and respiration partially and fully recovered to pre-heating rates respectively. Furthermore, nonlinear averaging of short-term feeding responses (upscaling) well-predicted longer term growth responses to fluctuations. Our findings suggest that fluctuations can be beneficial to or detrimental for the long-term performance of ectothermic animals, depending on the fluctuations' average and amplitude. Furthermore, the observed effects can be linked to fluctuation-mediated metabolic suppression and recovery. In a general framework, we propose various hypothetical scenarios of fluctuation impacts on ectotherm performance considering inter- or intra-species variability in heat sensitivity. Our research highlights the need for studying metabolic performance in relation to cyclic abiotic fluctuations to advance the understanding of climate change impacts on aquatic systems. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article

Description: 1. Predicting the implications of ongoing ocean climate warming demands a better understanding of how short-term thermal variability impacts marine ectotherms, particularly at beyond-optimal average conditions during summer heatwaves. 2. Using a globally important model species, the blue mussel Mytilus, in a 5-week-long experiment, we (a) assessed growth performance traits under 12 scenarios, consisting of four thermal averages (18.5, 21, 23.5 and 26℃) imposed as constant or daily fluctuating regimes with amplitudes of 2 or 4℃. Additionally, we conducted a short-term assay using different mussel individuals to (b) test for the species capacity for suppression and recovery of metabolic performance traits (feeding and aerobic respiration) when exposed to a 1-day thermal fluctuation regime (16.8–30.5℃). Using this high-resolution data, we (c) generated short-term thermal metabolic performance curves to predict and explain growth responses observed in the long-term experiment. 3. We found that daily high-amplitude thermal cycles (4℃) improved mussel growth when fluctuations were imposed around an extreme average temperature of 26℃, representing end-of-century heatwaves. In contrast, thermal cycles negatively affected mussel growth at a less extreme average temperature of 23.5℃, resembling current peak summer temperature scenarios. These results suggest that fluctuations ameliorate heat stress impacts only at critically high average temperatures. The short-term assay demonstrated that during the warming phase, animals stopped feeding between 24 and 30℃ while gradually suppressing respiration. In the subsequent cooling phase, feeding and respiration partially and fully recovered to pre-heating rates respectively. Furthermore, nonlinear averaging of short-term feeding responses (upscaling) well-predicted longer term growth responses to fluctuations. 4. Our findings suggest that fluctuations can be beneficial to or detrimental for the long-term performance of ectothermic animals, depending on the fluctuations' average and amplitude. Furthermore, the observed effects can be linked to fluctuation-mediated metabolic suppression and recovery. In a general framework, we propose various hypothetical scenarios of fluctuation impacts on ectotherm performance considering inter- or intra-species variability in heat sensitivity. Our research highlights the need for studying metabolic performance in relation to cyclic abiotic fluctuations to advance the understanding of climate change impacts on aquatic systems.