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Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate (2002)

Wetherald, R. T. ; Dunne, K. A. ; Delworth, T. L. ; [et al.]

[s.l.] : Macmillian Magazines Ltd.

Nature 415 (2002), S. 514-517

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ISSN: 1476-4687

Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009

Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics

Notes: [Auszug] Radiative effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, in particular an intensification of the global water cycle with a consequent increase in flood risk. But the detection of anthropogenically forced changes in flooding is difficult ...

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/415514a

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Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere (2000)

Delworth, T. L. ; Mann, M. E.

Springer

Climate dynamics 16 (2000), S. 661-676

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ISSN: 1432-0894

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Geosciences , Physics

Notes: Abstract Analyses of proxy based reconstructions of surface temperatures during the past 330 years show the existence of a distinct oscillatory mode of variability with an approximate time scale of 70 years. This variability is also seen in instrumental records, although the oscillatory nature of the variability is difficult to assess due to the short length of the instrumental record. The spatial pattern of this variability is hemispheric or perhaps even global in scale, but with particular emphasis on the Atlantic region. Independent analyses of multicentury integrations of two versions of the GFDL coupled atmosphere-ocean model also show the existence of distinct multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic region which resembles the observed pattern. The model variability involves fluctuations in the intensity of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic. It is our intent here to provide a direct comparison of the observed variability to that simulated in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, making use of both existing instrumental analyses and newly available proxy based multi-century surface temperature estimates. The analyses demonstrate a substantial agreement between the simulated and observed patterns of multidecadal variability in sea surface temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic. There is much less agreement between the model and observations for sea level pressure. Seasonal analyses of the variability demonstrate that for both the model and observations SST appears to be the primary carrier of the multidecadal signal.