Description: Pelagic and demersal juvenile Baltic cod Gadus morhua L. were collected on the slope and the top of Rønne bank in the Baltic Sea during 2 cruises in November and December 1998. The objective of this study was to evaluate distinct changes in otolith increment width observed in demersal juveniles by comparison with laboratory-reared individuals, and to investigate the factors determining variation in these increments. The different increment-width patterns were identified with a method based on the widths of consecutive increments. Otolith increment widths of juvenile cod were found to be highly variable within and between individuals, in both the experimental and the field samples. The first change in increment pattern observed in the field samples was related to settling. The formation periodicity of increments within the different pattern intervals was confirmed with a growth model based on otolith growth rates of juvenile cod reared in the laboratory under different conditions. In this model, otolith growth rate was expressed as a function of rearing temperature and fish dry weight. Otolith growth of the field samples was calculated using ambient temperatures obtained from a 3D-circulation model. The best fit to observed otolith growth rates was obtained under the assumption that fish on the slope performed daily vertical migrations between the warm surface layer and the cold bottom layer. The data suggested that fish stayed in the surface layer during the first increment-pattern interval, performed vertical migrations during the second interval, and stayed in association with the seafloor in the subsequent interval, corresponding to the time after the breakdown of the thermocline.

Description: A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to analyse temporally and spatially resolved circulation patterns in the Baltic Sea with special emphasis on drifting particles representing larval fish. The main purpose of this study was (i) to investigate potential drift patterns of larval fish, (ii) to identify its intra- and inter-annual variability for time periods based on the timing of spawning and (iii) to analyse its seasonal and spatial variability in dependence of the atmospheric forcing conditions. For the time period 1979–1998 temporally and spatially resolved simulated flow fields were used to describe the potential drift from the centre of main reproductive effort of Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). The results of the model runs demonstrate a general change in circulation pattern from retention during a first decade (1979–1988) to dispersion in the following decade (1989–1998). This increase in dispersion was related to an increase in the variability of the local wind forcing conditions over the Baltic. The more frequent occurrence of dispersion in spring of the recent decade was accompanied by a strong decay in biomass of one of the main larval fish feeding component in the central basin, the calanoid copepod Pseudocalanus elongatus. Larger dispersion of this prey organism may have affected the spatial overlap and thus the contact rates between predator and prey. Hence, this may have resulted in a food limitation for early life stages of Baltic cod and potentially contributed to the pronounced shift in cod peak spawning time from spring to late summer. Early life stages of cod originating from late spawning fish, benefited from a stronger dispersion in late summer and autumn, into shallow coastal areas with higher calanoid abundance.

Description: Pseudocalanus elongatus is a key species in the pelagic zone of the deep basins of the Central Baltic Sea. The copepod serves as a major food organism for larval as well as for adult, pelagic planktivorous fish. Large interannual fluctuations in the standing stock of P. elongatus have been attributed to significant changes in the hydrographic environment over the last two decades. In particular, the decreasing salinity in the Baltic deep basins, a result of a change in atmospheric forcing leading to an increase in rainfall since the 1980s and of a lack of pulses of saline water intrusions from the North Sea, was found to affect reproduction and maturation of the copepod. In parallel, dramatic changes in the weight-at-age of herring, one of the most important commercial fishes of the Baltic Sea, have been observed since the late 1980s. Using time-series on herring stomach contents, as well as length and weight, we provide evidence for a chain of events relating variability in climate, salinity and P. elongatus abundance to changes in diet and condition of herring in the Central Baltic Sea.

Description: In order to clarify mechanisms influencing the reproductive success of Baltic cod (Gadus morhua L.), a modelling exercise was performed to examine the effects of the wind-driven circulation on the transport of early life stages between the western and eastern Baltic. Because the different stocks spawn in different areas and environments at different times of the year, the occurrence of variable age/length distributions of juveniles within the different potential nursery areas can be explained by the circulation pattern. A three-dimensional circulation model of the Baltic was utilized to investigate the temporal evolution of egg and larval distributions of the western Baltic cod stock, which spawns preferentially in the Danish Straits, in Kiel Bay as well as in Mecklenburg Bay. For different scenarios (1988 and 1993), within- and between-year variability of egg and larval transport showed large differences, primarily due to variations in wind forcing. In 1988, relatively low and variable wind forcing prevailed, whereas, due to sustained strong, mainly westerly, winds, in January 1993, the recent major Baltic inflow to the Baltic Sea occurred. Differences in contributions of early life stages from the western to the eastern cod stocks, depending on the physical forcing conditions, suggest that this process can be controlled by variations of atmospheric forcing conditions. The potential for early life stages from the western Baltic cod stock to drift into the Arkona Basin and the Bornholm Basin, and to contribute there to the juvenile population, has been recognized as being mainly due to strong westerly winds. During cold winters, retention of eggs, larvae and juveniles within their original spawning grounds may predominate. Transport of cod early life stages from the Øresund, as well as from the Great Belt, can occur only during periods of strong westerly winds, but significant eastwards orientated drift from Kiel Bay and Mecklenburg Bay was also evident during periods of minor westerly wind influence.

Description: A study on cod egg mortality was carried out in the Bornholm Basin (southern central Baltic Sea) toward the end of July 1996. An initial egg aggregation marked by a satellite-tracked drifter buoy was sampled repeatedly over an 11-day period; profiles of temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen were concurrently recorded. Three replicate estimates of mortality were obtained for each pair of subsequent developmental stages from newly spawned eggs to early larvae. A consistent pattern of stage-specific mortality coincided well with previous experimental observations. Average daily mortality rates were 7.2% (eggs IA/IB), 38.7% (eggs (IB/II), 25.6% (eggs II/III), 40.0% (eggs III/IV), and 42.3% (eggs IV/early larvae). The cumulative mortality until hatch amounted to 99.9%. Results from hydrodynamic modelling, however, indicated that the drifter's trajectory was influenced by wind stress. Hence, the mortality rates might be biased despite the short sampling intervals; a modification of the sampling design is recommended for future studies.

Description: Spatial and temporal variability in environmental factors can exert major influences on survival and growth of living organisms. However, in many key areas of fisheries science (e.g. growth, survival and recruitment determination), environmental heterogeneity is usually ignored because of insufficient environmental or fisheries data or lack of evidence that such heterogeneity impacts response variables. For the eastern Baltic Sea (ICES Subdivisions 25 to 32), we evaluated spatial and temporal differences in conditions affecting the survival of cod Gadus morhua L. eggs at survival on four distinct spawning sites within the assessment area. We intercalibrated ways of quantifying the volume of water ('reproductive volume') at each site where salinity, oxygen and temperature conditions permitted successful egg development. We have developed and compared a time series (1952 to 1996) of reproductive volumes among the areas to identify spatial differences. The results of 2 independent volume-estimation methods are comparable, indicating that highly significant differences exist among the sites, and that the westernmost spawning ground, Bornholm Basin, has on average the highest reproductive volume and the lowest variability among the 4 sites. These findings may be useful in evaluating how spatial and temporal variability in environmental conditions affect egg hatching success and possibly recruitment in the Baltic stock.