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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2009
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 22, No. 10 ( 2009-05-15), p. 2526-2540
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 22, No. 10 ( 2009-05-15), p. 2526-2540
    Abstract: The impact of stochastic intraseasonal variability on the onset of the 1997/98 El Niño was examined using a large ensemble of forecasts starting on 1 December 1996, produced using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) seasonal forecast coupled model. This coupled model has a reasonable simulation of El Niño and the Madden–Julian oscillation, so it provides an ideal framework for investigating the interaction between the MJO and El Niño. The experiment was designed so that the ensemble spread was simply a result of internal stochastic variability that is generated during the forecast. For the initial conditions used here, all forecasts led to warm El Niño–type conditions with the amplitude of the warming varying from 0.5° to 2.7°C in the Niño-3.4 region. All forecasts developed an MJO event during the first 4 months, indicating that perhaps the background state favored MJO development. However, the details of the MJOs that developed during December 1996–March 1997 had a significant impact on the subsequent strength of the El Niño event. In particular, the forecasts with the initial MJOs that extended farther into the central Pacific, on average, led to a stronger El Niño, with the westerly winds in the western Pacific associated with the MJO leading the development of SST and thermocline anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific. These results imply a limit to the accuracy with which the strength of El Niño can be predicted because the details of individual MJO events matter. To represent realistic uncertainty, coupled models should be able to represent the MJO, including its propagation into the central Pacific so that forecasts produce sufficient ensemble spread.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2009
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Wiley ; 2009
    In:  Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Vol. 135, No. 639 ( 2009-01), p. 337-352
    In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Wiley, Vol. 135, No. 639 ( 2009-01), p. 337-352
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0035-9009 , 1477-870X
    URL: Issue
    RVK:
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2009
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3142-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2089168-4
    SSG: 14
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2006
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 33, No. 16 ( 2006)
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 33, No. 16 ( 2006)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2005
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 18, No. 10 ( 2005-05-15), p. 1449-1468
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 18, No. 10 ( 2005-05-15), p. 1449-1468
    Abstract: Coupled ocean–atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean is explored with a multicentury integration of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Mark 3 climate model, which runs without flux adjustment. Despite the presence of some common deficiencies in this type of coupled model, zonal dipolelike variability is produced. During July through November, the dominant mode of variability of sea surface temperature resembles the observed zonal dipole and has out-of-phase rainfall variations across the Indian Ocean basin, which are as large as those associated with the model El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the positive dipole phase, cold SST anomaly and suppressed rainfall south of the equator on the Sumatra–Java coast drives an anticyclonic circulation anomaly that is consistent with the steady response (Gill model) to a heat sink displaced south of the equator. The northwest–southeast tilting Sumatra–Java coast results in cold sea surface temperature (SST) centered south of the equator, which forces anticylonic winds that are southeasterly along the coast, which thus produces local upwelling, cool SSTs, and promotes more anticylonic winds; on the equator, the easterlies raise the thermocline to the east via upwelling Kelvin waves and deepen the off-equatorial thermocline to the west via off-equatorial downwelling Rossby waves. The model dipole mode exhibits little contemporaneous relationship with the model ENSO; however, this does not imply that it is independent of ENSO. The model dipole often (but not always) develops in the year following El Niño. It is triggered by an unrealistic transmission of the model’s ENSO discharge phase through the Indonesian passages. In the model, the ENSO discharge Rossby waves arrive at the Sumatra–Java coast some 6 to 9 months after an El Niño peaks, causing the majority of model dipole events to peak in the year after an ENSO warm event. In the observed ENSO discharge, Rossby waves arrive at the Australian northwest coast. Thus the model Indian Ocean dipolelike variability is triggered by an unrealistic mechanism. The result highlights the importance of properly representing the transmission of Pacific Rossby waves and Indonesian throughflow in the complex topography of the Indonesian region in coupled climate models.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2005
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2009
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 22, No. 6 ( 2009-03-15), p. 1482-1498
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 22, No. 6 ( 2009-03-15), p. 1482-1498
    Abstract: Impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on Australian rainfall and circulation are examined during all four seasons. The authors examine circulation anomalies and a number of different rainfall metrics, each composited contemporaneously for eight MJO phases derived from the real-time multivariate MJO index. Multiple rainfall metrics are examined to allow for greater relevance of the information for applications. The greatest rainfall impact of the MJO occurs in northern Australia in (austral) summer, although in every season rainfall impacts of various magnitude are found in most locations, associated with corresponding circulation anomalies. In northern Australia in all seasons except winter, the rainfall impact is explained by the direct influence of the MJO’s tropical convective anomalies, while in winter a weaker and more localized signal in northern Australia appears to result from the modulation of the trade winds as they impinge upon the eastern coasts, especially in the northeast. In extratropical Australia, on the other hand, the occurrence of enhanced (suppressed) rainfall appears to result from induced upward (downward) motion within remotely forced extratropical lows (highs), and from anomalous low-level northerly (southerly) winds that transport moisture from the tropics. Induction of extratropical rainfall anomalies by remotely forced lows and highs appears to operate mostly in winter, whereas anomalous meridional moisture transport appears to operate mainly in the summer, autumn, and to some extent in the spring.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2009
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) ; 2007
    In:  Science Vol. 318, No. 5857 ( 2007-12-14), p. 1731-1732
    In: Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Vol. 318, No. 5857 ( 2007-12-14), p. 1731-1732
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0036-8075 , 1095-9203
    RVK:
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Publication Date: 2007
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 128410-1
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    SSG: 11
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2008
    In:  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Vol. 65, No. 9 ( 2008-09-01), p. 2936-2948
    In: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 65, No. 9 ( 2008-09-01), p. 2936-2948
    Abstract: Three aspects of space–time spectral analysis are explored for diagnosis of the organization of tropical convection by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and other equatorial wave modes: 1) definition of the background spectrum upon which spectral peaks are assessed, 2) alternate variance preserving display of the spectra, and 3) the space–time coherence spectrum. Here the background spectrum at each zonal wavenumber is assumed to result from a red noise process. The associated decorrelation time for the red noise process for tropical convection is found to be half as long as for zonal wind, reflecting the different physical processes controlling each field. The significance of spectral peaks associated with equatorial wave modes for outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), which is a proxy for precipitating deep convection, and zonal winds that stand out above the red background spectrum is similar to that identified using a background spectrum resulting from ad hoc smoothing of the original spectrum. A variance-preserving display of the space–time power spectrum with a logarithmic frequency axis is useful for directly detecting Kelvin waves (periods 5–15 days for eastward zonal wavenumbers 1–5) and for highlighting their distinction from the MJO. The space–time coherence of OLR and zonal wind is predominantly associated with the MJO and other equatorial waves. The space–time coherence is independent of estimating the background spectrum and is quantifiable; thus, it is suggested as a useful metric for the MJO and other equatorial waves in observations and simulations. The space–time coherence is also used to quantify the association of Kelvin waves in the stratosphere with convective variability in the troposphere and for detection of barotropic Rossby–Haurwitz waves.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0469 , 0022-4928
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2008
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 218351-1
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    SSG: 16,13
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2009
    In:  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Vol. 66, No. 9 ( 2009-09-01), p. 2796-2811
    In: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 66, No. 9 ( 2009-09-01), p. 2796-2811
    Abstract: The behavior of convection and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is compared in two simulations from the same global climate model but with two very different treatments of convection: one has a conventional parameterization of moist processes and the other replaces the parameterization with a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model, the so-called superparameterization. The different behavior of local convection and the MJO in the two model simulations reveals that the accurate representation of the following characteristics in the modes of convection might contribute to the improvement of the MJO simulations: (i) precipitation should be an exponentially increasing function of the column saturation fraction, (ii) heavy precipitation should be associated with a stratiform diabatic heating profile, and (iii) there should be a positive relationship between precipitation and surface latent heat flux.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0469 , 0022-4928
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2009
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 218351-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2025890-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2009
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 137, No. 10 ( 2009-10-01), p. 3233-3253
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, No. 10 ( 2009-10-01), p. 3233-3253
    Abstract: This work identifies and documents a suite of large-scale drivers of rainfall variability in the Australian region. The key driver in terms of broad influence and impact on rainfall is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is related to rainfall over much of the continent at different times, particularly in the north and east, with the regions of influence shifting with the seasons. The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is particularly important in the June–October period, which spans much of the wet season in the southwest and southeast where IOD has an influence. ENSO interacts with the IOD in this period such that their separate regions of influence cover the entire continent. Atmospheric blocking also becomes most important during this period and has an influence on rainfall across the southern half of the continent. The Madden–Julian oscillation can influence rainfall in different parts of the continent in different seasons, but its impact is strongest on the monsoonal rains in the north. The influence of the southern annular mode is mostly confined to the southwest and southeast of the continent. The patterns of rainfall relationship to each of the drivers exhibit substantial decadal variability, though the characteristic regions described above do not change markedly. The relationships between large-scale drivers and rainfall are robust to the selection of typical indices used to represent the drivers. In most regions the individual drivers account for less than 20% of monthly rainfall variability, though the drivers relate to a predictable component of this variability. The amount of rainfall variance explained by individual drivers is highest in eastern Australia and in spring, where it approaches 50% in association with ENSO and blocking.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0493 , 0027-0644
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2009
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    SSG: 14
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2009
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 137, No. 11 ( 2009-11-01), p. 3796-3810
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, No. 11 ( 2009-11-01), p. 3796-3810
    Abstract: The relationship between variations of Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and Australian springtime rainfall over the last 30 years is investigated with a focus on predictability of inter–El Niño variations of SST and associated rainfall anomalies. Based on observed data, the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of Indo-Pacific SST represents mature El Niño conditions, while the second and fourth modes depict major east–west shifts of individual El Niño events. These higher-order EOFs of SST explain more rainfall variance in Australia, especially in the southeast, than does the El Niño mode. Furthermore, intense springtime droughts tend to be associated with peak warming in the central Pacific, as captured by EOFs 2 and 4, together with warming in the eastern Pacific as depicted by EOF1. The ability to predict these inter–El Niño variations of SST and Australian rainfall is assessed with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology dynamical coupled model seasonal forecast system, the Predictive Ocean and Atmospheric Model for Australia (POAMA). A 10-member ensemble of 9-month hindcasts was generated for the period 1980–2006. For the September–November season, the leading 2 EOFs of SST are predictable with lead times of 3–6 months, while SST EOF4 is predictable out to a lead time of 1 month. The teleconnection between the leading EOFs of SST and Australian rainfall is also well depicted in the model. Based on this ability to predict major east–west variations of El Niño and the teleconnection to Australian rainfall, springtime rainfall over eastern Australia, and major drought events are predictable up to a season in advance.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0493 , 0027-0644
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2009
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
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