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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2006
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 134, No. 9 ( 2006-09-01), p. 2490-2502
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 134, No. 9 ( 2006-09-01), p. 2490-2502
    Abstract: One aspect of implementing a limited-area ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) involves the specification of a suitable ensemble of lateral boundary conditions. Two classes of methods to populate a boundary condition ensemble are proposed. In the first class, the ensemble of boundary conditions is provided by an EnKF on a larger domain and is approximately a random draw from the probability distribution function for the forecast (or analysis) on the limited-area domain boundary. The second class perturbs around a deterministic estimate of the state using assumed spatial and temporal covariance relationships. Methods in the second class are relatively flexible and easy to implement. Experiments that test the utility of these methods are performed for both an idealized low-dimensional model and limited-area simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; all experiments employ simulated observations under the perfect model assumption. The performance of the ensemble boundary condition methods is assessed by comparing the results of each experiment against a control “global” EnKF that extends beyond the limited-area domain. For all methods tested, results show that errors for the limited-area EnKF are larger near the lateral boundaries than those from a control EnKF, but decay inside the limited-area domain so that errors there are comparable to the control case. The relatively larger errors near the boundaries in the limited-area EnKF originate from not assimilating observations outside the limited-area domain and, in the second class of methods, from deficiencies in boundary spatial and temporal covariances. Overall, these experiments suggest that for observation densities typical in numerical weather prediction models, ensemble boundary conditions can be specified in the absence of a global ensemble without significant penalty in the domain interior by perturbing around an ensemble mean.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0493 , 0027-0644
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2006
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    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2007
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 135, No. 12 ( 2007-12-01), p. 4117-4134
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 135, No. 12 ( 2007-12-01), p. 4117-4134
    Abstract: The sensitivity of numerical weather forecasts to small changes in initial conditions is estimated using ensemble samples of analysis and forecast errors. Ensemble sensitivity is defined here by linear regression of analysis errors onto a given forecast metric. It is shown that ensemble sensitivity is proportional to the projection of the analysis-error covariance onto the adjoint-sensitivity field. Furthermore, the ensemble-sensitivity approach proposed here involves a small calculation that is easy to implement. Ensemble- and adjoint-based sensitivity fields are compared for a representative wintertime flow pattern near the west coast of North America for a 90-member ensemble of independent initial conditions derived from an ensemble Kalman filter. The forecast metric is taken for simplicity to be the 24-h forecast of sea level pressure at a single point in western Washington State. Results show that adjoint and ensemble sensitivities are very different in terms of location, scale, and magnitude. Adjoint-sensitivity fields reveal mesoscale lower-tropospheric structures that tilt strongly upshear, whereas ensemble-sensitivity fields emphasize synoptic-scale features that tilt modestly throughout the troposphere and are associated with significant weather features at the initial time. Optimal locations for targeting can easily be determined from ensemble sensitivity, and results indicate that the primary targeting locations are located away from regions of greatest adjoint and ensemble sensitivity. It is shown that this method of targeting is similar to previous ensemble-based methods that estimate forecast-error variance reduction, but easily allows for the application of statistical confidence measures to deal with sampling error.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0493 , 0027-0644
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2007
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health) ; 2006
    In:  Stroke Vol. 37, No. 12 ( 2006-12), p. 3035-3042
    In: Stroke, Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health), Vol. 37, No. 12 ( 2006-12), p. 3035-3042
    Abstract: This workshop examined the opportunities for translational research directed at immune and inflammatory mechanisms. This summary presents the background data in 3 general areas: (1) inflammation and hemostasis in cerebrovascular and cardiovascular disease, (2) immune interactions in the central nervous system and heart, and (3) translation of immune modulation in the brain and heart, all of which supported a consensus derivation of the opportunities for future research in these areas. The summary concludes with 11 recommendations.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0039-2499 , 1524-4628
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1467823-8
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2005
    In:  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Vol. 62, No. 8 ( 2005-08-01), p. 2847-2863
    In: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 62, No. 8 ( 2005-08-01), p. 2847-2863
    Abstract: Floquet theory is applied to the stability of time-periodic, nonparallel shear flows consisting of a baroclinic jet plus a neutral wave. This configuration is chosen as an idealized representation of baroclinic waves in a storm track, and the stability analysis may be helpful for understanding generic properties of the growth of forecast errors in such regions. Two useful attributes of Floquet theory relevant to this problem are that the period-average mode growth rate is norm independent, and the t→ ∞ stability limit is determined by the stability over one period. Exponentially growing Floquet modes are found for arbitrarily small departures from parallel flows. Approximately 70% of Floquet-mode growth in energy is due to barotropic conversion, with the remainder due to zonal heat flux. Floquet-mode growth rates increase linearly with neutral wave amplitude (i.e., the “waviness” of the jet) and also increase with neutral wave wavelength. Growth rates for meridionally localized jets are approximately 40% smaller than for comparable cases with linear vertical shear (the Eady jet). Singular vectors for these flows converge to the leading Floquet mode over one basic-state period, and the leading instantaneous optimal mode closely resembles the leading Floquet mode. Initial-value problems demonstrate that the periodic basic states are absolutely unstable, with Floquet modes spreading faster than the basic-state flow both upstream and downstream of an initially localized disturbance. This behavior dominates the convective instability of parallel-flow jets when the neutral baroclinic wave amplitude exceeds a threshold value of about 8–10 K. This result suggests that forecast errors in a storm track may spread faster, and affect upstream locations, for sufficiently wavy jets.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0469 , 0022-4928
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2005
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2005
    In:  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Vol. 62, No. 9 ( 2005-09-01), p. 3213-3231
    In: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 62, No. 9 ( 2005-09-01), p. 3213-3231
    Abstract: The evolution of mountain-wave-induced momentum flux is examined through idealized numerical simulations during the passage of a time-evolving synoptic-scale flow over an isolated 3D mountain of height h. The dynamically consistent synoptic-scale flow U accelerates and decelerates with a period of 50 h; the maximum wind arrives over the mountain at 25 h. The synoptic-scale static stability N is constant, so the time dependence of the nonlinearity parameter, ɛ(t) = Nh/U(t), is symmetric about a minimum value at 25 h. The evolution of the vertical profile of momentum flux shows substantial asymmetry about the midpoint of the cycle even though the nonlinearity parameter is symmetric. Larger downward momentum fluxes are found during the accelerating phase, and the largest momentum fluxes occur in the mid- and upper troposphere before the maximum background flow arrives at the mountain. For a period of roughly 15 h, this vertical distribution of momentum flux accelerates the lower-tropospheric zonal-mean winds due to low-level momentum flux convergence. Conservation of wave action and Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin (WKB) ray tracing are used to reconstruct the time–altitude dependence of the mountain-wave momentum flux in a semianalytic procedure that is completely independent of the full numerical simulations. For quasi-linear cases, the reconstructions show good agreement with the numerical simulations, implying that the basic asymmetry obtained in the full numerical simulations may be interpreted using WKB theory. These results demonstrate that even slow variations in the mean flow, with a time scale of 2 days, play a dominant role in regulating the vertical profile of mountain-wave-induced momentum flux. The time evolution of cross-mountain pressure drag is also examined in this study. For almost-linear cases, the pressure drag is well predicted under steady-state linear theory by using the instantaneous incident flow. Nevertheless, for mountains high enough to preserve a moderate degree of nonlinearity when the synoptic-scale incident flow is strongest, the evolution of cross-mountain pressure drag is no longer symmetric about the time of maximum wind. A higher drag state is found when the cross-mountain flow is accelerating. These results suggest that the local character of the topographically induced disturbance cannot be solely determined by the instantaneous value of the nonlinearity parameter ɛ.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0469 , 0022-4928
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2005
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2025890-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2007
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 135, No. 4 ( 2007-04-01), p. 1455-1473
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 135, No. 4 ( 2007-04-01), p. 1455-1473
    Abstract: Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation experiments are conducted on a limited-area domain over the Pacific Northwest region of the United States, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Idealized surface pressure, radiosoundings, and aircraft observations are assimilated every 6 h for a 7-day period in January 2004. The objectives here are to study the performance of the filter in constraining analysis errors with a relatively inhomogeneous, sparse-observation network and to explore the potential for such a network to serve as the basis for a real-time EnKF system dedicated to the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. When only a single observation type is assimilated, results show that the ensemble-mean analysis error and ensemble spread (standard deviation) are significantly reduced compared to a control ensemble without assimilation for both observed and unobserved variables. Analysis errors are smaller than background errors over nearly the entire domain when averaged over the 7-day period. Moreover, comparisons of background errors and observation increments at each assimilation step suggest that the flow-dependent filter corrections are accurate in both scale and amplitude. An illustrative example concerns a misspecified mesoscale 500-hPa short-wave trough moving along the British Columbia coast, which is corrected by surface pressure observations alone. The relative impact of each observation type upon different variables and vertical levels is also discussed.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0493 , 0027-0644
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2007
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2005
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 133, No. 4 ( 2005-04), p. 863-875
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 133, No. 4 ( 2005-04), p. 863-875
    Abstract: The development of three fronts over the Southern Ocean is described using SeaWinds-on-QuikSCAT scatterometer surface winds and an attribution technique to partition the wind field in three components: nondivergent and irrotational components at the scale of the front, and the remaining harmonic component (or environmental flow) induced by the synoptic-scale flow. The front and the environment in which the front is embedded are analyzed separately. A frontal wave is shown to develop out of the first front when the large-scale alongfront stretching decreases, the environmental flow becomes frontolytic, and a connection with the upper levels is established. In the second case, the stretching remains relatively strong and no frontal wave develops. The third front exhibits a developing wave but is not in a favorable configuration with the upper levels; the frontal wave does not deepen significantly.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2005
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2005
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 32, No. 4 ( 2005-02), p. n/a-n/a
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 32, No. 4 ( 2005-02), p. n/a-n/a
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2005
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Schweizerbart ; 2007
    In:  Meteorologische Zeitschrift Vol. 16, No. 6 ( 2007-12-17), p. 635-642
    In: Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Schweizerbart, Vol. 16, No. 6 ( 2007-12-17), p. 635-642
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0941-2948
    Uniform Title: Interpreting adjoint and ensemble sensitivity toward the development of optimal observation targeting strategies
    RVK:
    Language: English , English
    Publisher: Schweizerbart
    Publication Date: 2007
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 511391-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2045168-4
    SSG: 14
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2008
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 136, No. 10 ( 2008-10), p. 3947-3963
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 136, No. 10 ( 2008-10), p. 3947-3963
    Abstract: The 2-yr performance of a pseudo-operational (real time) limited-area ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model is described. This system assimilates conventional observations from surface stations, rawinsondes, the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), and cloud motion vectors every 6 h on a domain that includes the eastern North Pacific Ocean and western North America. Ensemble forecasts from this system and deterministic output from operational numerical weather prediction models during this same period are verified against rawinsonde and surface observation data. Relative to operational forecasts, the forecast from the ensemble-mean analysis has slightly larger errors in wind and temperature but smaller errors in moisture, even though satellite radiances are not assimilated by the EnKF. Time-averaged correlations indicate that assimilating ACARS and cloud wind data with flow-dependent error statistics provides corrections to the moisture field in the absence of direct observations of that field. Comparison with a control experiment in which a deterministic forecast is cycled without observation assimilation indicates that the skill in the EnKF’s forecasts results from assimilating observations and not from lateral boundary conditions or the model formulation. Furthermore, the ensemble variance is generally in good agreement with the ensemble-mean error and the spread increases monotonically with forecast hour.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2008
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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