Description: Predicting the evolution of climate over decadal timescales requires a quantitative understanding of the dynamics that govern the meridional overturning circulation (MOC)1. Comprehensive ocean measurement programmes aiming to monitor MOC variations have been established in the subtropical North Atlantic2, 3 (RAPID, at latitude 26.5° N, and MOVE, at latitude 16° N) and show strong variability on intraseasonal to interannual timescales. Observational evidence of longer-term changes in MOC transport remains scarce, owing to infrequent sampling of transoceanic sections over past decades4, 5. Inferences based on long-term sea surface temperature records, however, supported by model simulations, suggest a variability with an amplitude of plusminus1.5–3 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1) on decadal timescales in the subtropics6. Such variability has been attributed to variations of deep water formation in the sub-arctic Atlantic, particularly the renewal rate of Labrador Sea Water7. Here we present results from a model simulation that suggest an additional influence on decadal MOC variability having a Southern Hemisphere origin: dynamic signals originating in the Agulhas leakage region at the southern tip of Africa. These contribute a MOC signal in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic that is of the same order of magnitude as the northern source. A complete rationalization of observed MOC changes therefore also requires consideration of signals arriving from the south.

Description: A suite of high-resolution models of the Atlantic Ocean circulation is used to study the deep seasonal current variability in the equatorial regime, with a particular emphasis on its manifestation in the variability of the interhemispheric transports near the western boundary. The basic experiment has a resolution of 1/3∘1/3∘ horizontally and 45 vertical levels, and is subject to a monthly mean atmospheric forcing based on ECMWF flux fields. Sensitivity experiments explore the effects of higher horizontal resolution (1/12∘1/12∘), and alternative mixing parameterizations. The model behavior near the equator confirms previous suggestions based on solutions of the WOCE Community Modelling Effort (“CME”) and the “DYNAMO” model intercomparison project, of the presence of a system of vigorous seasonal current oscillations, spanning the whole water column and nearly the whole zonal extent of the basin. The patterns of the primarily zonal current anomalies are fairly robust across the range of model cases investigated, i.e., show relatively little sensitivity to horizontal resolution/mixing, or to the different choices of vertical discretization and vertical mixing as in the DYNAMO cases. The amplitude of the seasonal variation exceeds 10 cm/s in the surface layer, and decreases to about 5 cm/s near 1000 m and 2–3 cm/s in the deep ocean in both the basic 1/3∘1/3∘- and the 1/12∘1/12∘-cases, thereby leading to seasonally reversing current signatures at all depths below the EUC. A particular aspect of the seasonal current variability concerns its manifestation in the southward transport of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) by the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). The temporal characteristics of the DWBC variability are in agreement with moored current meter observations at 44∘W44∘W, with simulated DWBC transports varying between a maximum of more than 30 Sv in January/February, and almost vanishing transport in September. However, in contrast to the annual-mean deep water transport which is confined to the DWBC and tight, O(100) km-recirculation cells, the seasonal cycle of transport is not trapped near the boundary: the simulations show that the zonal current variations of the equatorial wave guide, near the western boundary give rise to a broad system of seasonal recirculation cells of the DWBC. Calculations of the amplitude of the seasonal variability in the deep water transport near the equator are therefore strongly dependent of the spatial extent of the cross-section considered; in particular, for being approximately representative of low-frequency variations in the net, zonally-integrated meridional transport of deep water in the equatorial regime, transport sections would need to extend over nearly the whole western basin.

Description: Observations show a significant intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, the prevailing winds between the latitudes of 30° and 60° S, over the past decades. A continuation of this intensification trend is projected by climate scenarios for the twenty-first century. The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the carbon sink in the Southern Ocean to changes in wind stress and surface buoyancy fluxes is under debate. Here we analyse the Argo network of profiling floats and historical oceanographic data to detect coherent hemispheric-scale warming and freshening trends that extend to depths of more than 1,000 m. The warming and freshening is partly related to changes in the properties of the water masses that make up the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which are consistent with the anthropogenic changes in heat and freshwater fluxes suggested by climate models. However, we detect no increase in the tilt of the surfaces of equal density across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, in contrast to coarse-resolution model studies. Our results imply that the transport in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and meridional overturning in the Southern Ocean are insensitive to decadal changes in wind stress.

Description: Analyses of ocean observations and model simulations suggest that there have been considerable changes in the thermohaline circulation (THC) during the last century. These changes are likely to be the result of natural multidecadal climate variability and are driven by low-frequency variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) through changes in Labrador Sea convection. Indications of a sustained THC weakening are not seen during the last few decades. Instead, a strengthening since the 1980s is observed. The combined assessment of ocean hydrography data and model results indicates that the expected anthropogenic weakening of the THC will remain within the range of natural variability during the next several decades

Description: A model of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean is used to study different aspects of ventilation and water mass transformation during a year with moderate convection intensity in the Labrador Sea. The model realistically describes the salient features of the observed hydrographic structure and current system, including boundary currents and recirculations. Ventilation and transformation rates are defined and compared. The transformation rate of Labrador Sea Water (LSW), defined in analogy to several observational studies, is 6.3 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the model. Using an idealized ventilation tracer, mimicking analyses based on chlorofluorocarbon inventories, an LSW ventilation rate of 10 Sv is found. Differences between both rates are particularly significant for those water masses that are partially transformed into denser water masses during winter. The main export route of the ventilated LSW is the deep Labrador Current (LC). Backward calculation of particle trajectories demonstrates that about one-half of the LSW leaving the Labrador Sea within the deep LC originates in the mixed layer during that same year. Near the offshore flank of the deep LC at about 55°W, the transformation of LSW begins in January and is at a maximum in February/March. While the export of transformed LSW out of the central Labrador Sea continues for several months, LSW generated near the boundary current is exported more rapidly, with maximum transport rates during March/April within the deep LC.

Description: The causes and characteristics of interannual–decadal variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the North Atlantic are investigated with a suite of basin-scale ocean models [the Family of Linked Atlantic Model Experiments (FLAME)] and global ocean–ice models (ORCA), varying in resolution from medium to eddy resolving (½°–1/12°), using various forcing configurations built on bulk formulations invoking atmospheric reanalysis products. Comparison of the model hindcasts indicates similar MOC variability characteristics on time scales up to a decade; both model architectures also simulate an upward trend in MOC strength between the early 1970s and mid-1990s. The causes of the MOC changes are examined by perturbation experiments aimed selectively at the response to individual forcing components. The solutions emphasize an inherently linear character of the midlatitude MOC variability by demonstrating that the anomalies of a (non–eddy resolving) hindcast simulation can be understood as a superposition of decadal and longer-term signals originating from thermohaline forcing variability, and a higher-frequency wind-driven variability. The thermohaline MOC signal is linked to the variability in subarctic deep-water formation, and rapidly progressing to the tropical Atlantic. However, throughout the subtropical and midlatitude North Atlantic, this signal is effectively masked by stronger MOC variability related to wind forcing and, especially north of 30°–35°N, by internally induced (eddy) fluctuations.

Description: The authors present the first quantitative comparison between new velocity datasets and high-resolution models in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre [1/10° Parallel Ocean Program model (POPNA10), Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), ° Atlantic model (ATL6), and Family of Linked Atlantic Ocean Model Experiments (FLAME)]. At the surface, the model velocities agree generally well with World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) drifter data. Two noticeable exceptions are the weakness of the East Greenland coastal current in models and the presence in the surface layers of a strong southwestward East Reykjanes Ridge Current. At depths, the most prominent feature of the circulation is the boundary current following the continental slope. In this narrow flow, it is found that gridded float datasets cannot be used for a quantitative comparison with models. The models have very different patterns of deep convection, and it is suggested that this could be related to the differences in their barotropic transport at Cape Farewell. Models show a large drift in watermass properties with a salinization of the Labrador Sea Water. The authors believe that the main cause is related to horizontal transports of salt because models with different forcing and vertical mixing share the same salinization problem. A remarkable feature of the model solutions is the large westward transport over Reykjanes Ridge [10 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) or more]

Description: The transport of warm and salty Indian Ocean waters into the Atlantic Ocean—the Agulhas leakage—has a crucial role in the global oceanic circulation1 and thus the evolution of future climate. At present these waters provide the main source of heat and salt for the surface branch of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC)2. There is evidence from past glacial-to-interglacial variations in foraminiferal assemblages3 and model studies4 that the amount of Agulhas leakage and its corresponding effect on the MOC has been subject to substantial change, potentially linked to latitudinal shifts in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies5. A progressive poleward migration of the westerlies has been observed during the past two to three decades and linked to anthropogenic forcing6, but because of the sparse observational records it has not been possible to determine whether there has been a concomitant response of Agulhas leakage. Here we present the results of a high-resolution ocean general circulation model7, 8 to show that the transport of Indian Ocean waters into the South Atlantic via the Agulhas leakage has increased during the past decades in response to the change in wind forcing. The increased leakage has contributed to the observed salinification9 of South Atlantic thermocline waters. Both model and historic measurements off South America suggest that the additional Indian Ocean waters have begun to invade the North Atlantic, with potential implications for the future evolution of the MOC.

Description: The upper ocean large-scale circulation of the western tropical Atlantic from 11.5°S to the Caribbean in November and December 2000 is investigated from a new type of shipboard ADCP able to measure accurate velocities to 600 m depth, combined with lowered ADCP measurements. Satellite data and numerical model output complement the shipboard measurements to better describe the large-scale circulation. In November 2000 the North Brazil Undercurrent (NBUC) was strongly intensified between 11 and 5°S by inflow from the east, hence the NBUC was formed further to the north than in the mean. The NBUC was transporting 23.1 Sv northward at 5°S, slightly less than the mean of six cruises (Geophysical Research Letters (2002) 29 (7) 1840). At 35°W the North Brazil Current (NBC) transported 29.4 Sv westward, less than the mean of 13 cruises (Geophysical Research Letters (2003) 30 (7) 1349). A strong retroflection ring had just pinched off the NBC retroflection according to the satellite information. The inflow into the Caribbean south of 16.5°N originated in part of a leakage from the NBC retroflection zone and in part from the North Equatorial Current. A thermocline intensified ring with a transport of about 30 Sv was located off Guadeloupe carrying South Atlantic Central Water towards the north. Observed deviations of the November/December 2000 flow field from the November long-term mean flow field were related to an enhanced Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) associated with an increased North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), as well as to boundary current rings and Rossby waves with zonal wavelength of the order of 1000 km. At 44°W the presence of a Rossby wave associated with an anticyclonic circulation led to a strongly enhanced NBC of 65.0 Sv as well as to a combined NECC and Equatorial Undercurrent transport of 52.4 Sv, much stronger than during earlier cruises. While the 1/3°-FLAME model is unable to reproduce details of the vertical distribution of the observed horizontal flow at 44 °W for November 2000 as well as the horizontal distribution of some of the observed permanent current bands, a climatological simulation with the 1/12°-FLAME agrees much better with the observations and provides information on the spreading path between the sections. E.g., the interpretation that the widening in the Antarctic Intermediate Water layer of the westward flowing NBC at 44°W in November was caused by water from the Equatorial Intermediate Current was further supported by the model results