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  • AMS (American Meteorological Society)  (6)
  • Nature Publishing Group  (2)
  • 2005-2009  (6)
  • 1995-1999  (2)
Document type
Publisher
Years
Year
  • 1
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    Agulhas leakage dynamics affects decadal variability in Atlantic overturning circulation (2008)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature, 456 . pp. 489-492.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Predicting the evolution of climate over decadal timescales requires a quantitative understanding of the dynamics that govern the meridional overturning circulation (MOC)1. Comprehensive ocean measurement programmes aiming to monitor MOC variations have been established in the subtropical North Atlantic2, 3 (RAPID, at latitude 26.5° N, and MOVE, at latitude 16° N) and show strong variability on intraseasonal to interannual timescales. Observational evidence of longer-term changes in MOC transport remains scarce, owing to infrequent sampling of transoceanic sections over past decades4, 5. Inferences based on long-term sea surface temperature records, however, supported by model simulations, suggest a variability with an amplitude of plusminus1.5–3 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1) on decadal timescales in the subtropics6. Such variability has been attributed to variations of deep water formation in the sub-arctic Atlantic, particularly the renewal rate of Labrador Sea Water7. Here we present results from a model simulation that suggest an additional influence on decadal MOC variability having a Southern Hemisphere origin: dynamic signals originating in the Agulhas leakage region at the southern tip of Africa. These contribute a MOC signal in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic that is of the same order of magnitude as the northern source. A complete rationalization of observed MOC changes therefore also requires consideration of signals arriving from the south.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1038/nature07426
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 2
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    The role of mesoscale eddies in the source regions of the Agulhas Current (1999)
    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography, 29 . pp. 2303-2317.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: A primitive equation model to study the dynamics of the Agulhas system has been developed. The model domain covers the South Atlantic and the south Indian Ocean with a resolution of ⅓° in the Agulhas region while coarser outside. It is driven by a climatology of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. It is shown that the model simulates the Agulhas Current, its retroflection, and the ring shedding successfully. The model results show baroclinic anticyclonic eddies in the Mozambique Channel and east of Madagascar, which travel toward the northern Agulhas Current. After the eddies reach the current they are advected southward with the mean flow. Due to the limited numerical resolution only a few eddies reach the retroflection region without much modification. These eddies are responsible for drastic enhancement of the heat transfer from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic and lead to periodicities in the interoceanic heat transport of about 50 days superimposed on the seasonal variability. Combined satellite data from TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-1 show that the observed vortices in the Mozambique Channel are comparable to those seen in the model. In contrast to this the simulated eddies east of Madagascar seem not to be well reproduced. Analyses of the energy conversion terms between the mean flow and the eddies suggest that barotropic instability plays an important role in the generation of Mozambique Channel eddies. For the generation of Agulhas rings and other eddy structures in the model the barotropic instability mechanism seems to be minor, and baroclinic instability mechanisms are more likely.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0485(1999)029〈2303:TROMEI〉2.0.CO;2
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 3
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    Variability and coherence of the Agulhas Undercurrent in a High-resolution Ocean General Circulation Model (2009)
    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography, 39 . pp. 2417-2435.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: The Agulhas Current system has been analyzed in a nested high-resolution ocean model and compared to observations. The model shows good performance in the western boundary current structure and the transports off the South African coast. This includes the simulation of the northward-flowing Agulhas Undercurrent. It is demonstrated that fluctuations of the Agulhas Current and Undercurrent around 50–70 days are due to Natal pulses and Mozambique eddies propagating downstream. A sensitivity experiment that excludes those upstream perturbations significantly reduces the variability as well as the mean transport of the undercurrent. Although the model simulates undercurrents in the Mozambique Channel and east of Madagascar, there is no direct connection between those and the Agulhas Undercurrent. Virtual float releases demonstrate that topography is effectively blocking the flow toward the north.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1175/2009JPO4184.1
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 4
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    On multidecadal and quasi-decadal North Atlantic variability (2008)
    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 21 (14). pp. 3433-3452.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic from 1958 through 2000, as well as data from an ocean model simulation driven with the atmospheric variability observed during the same period, are examined using multichannel singular spectrum analysis. The two leading oscillatory modes are associated with a multidecadal and a quasi-decadal period. The former is connected to a basinwide uniform SST pattern and changes in the deep North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The quasi-decadal mode involves a tripolar SST anomaly pattern forced by atmospheric variability with a spatial structure resembling that of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The upper ocean’s dynamical response to this NAO variability provides an instantaneous positive feedback to the SST pattern, while a delayed negative feedback is due to shallow overturning circulation anomalies.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1800.1
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 5
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    Is the thermohaline circulation changing? (2006)
    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 19 (18). pp. 4631-4637.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: Analyses of ocean observations and model simulations suggest that there have been considerable changes in the thermohaline circulation (THC) during the last century. These changes are likely to be the result of natural multidecadal climate variability and are driven by low-frequency variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) through changes in Labrador Sea convection. Indications of a sustained THC weakening are not seen during the last few decades. Instead, a strengthening since the 1980s is observed. The combined assessment of ocean hydrography data and model results indicates that the expected anthropogenic weakening of the THC will remain within the range of natural variability during the next several decades
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3876.1
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 6
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    Water mass formation from revised COADS data (1995)
    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography, 25 (10). pp. 2444-2457.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-04-05
    Description: Surface heat and freshwater fluxes from the Comprehensive 0cean-Atmosphere Data Set are revised and used diagnostically to compute air-sea transformation rates on density, temperature, and salinity classes over the domain of the data. Maximum rates occur over the warmest water and over mode waters, which are the dominant result of air-sea interaction. Transformation in different is accordingly distinguished by temperature and salinity, just as water masses in different oceans are so distinguished. Over the entire domain, to about 30°S, approximately 80×106 m3 s−1 of warm cool water are transformed by air-sea fluxes, on annual average. Calculations for several seas in the North Atlantic, where deep water is thought to originate, we also presented.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0485(1995)025〈2444:WMFFRC〉2.0.CO;2
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 7
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    Causes of Interannual–Decadal Variability in the Meridional Overturning Circulation of the Midlatitude North Atlantic Ocean (2008)
    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 21 . pp. 6599-6615.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: The causes and characteristics of interannual–decadal variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the North Atlantic are investigated with a suite of basin-scale ocean models [the Family of Linked Atlantic Model Experiments (FLAME)] and global ocean–ice models (ORCA), varying in resolution from medium to eddy resolving (½°–1/12°), using various forcing configurations built on bulk formulations invoking atmospheric reanalysis products. Comparison of the model hindcasts indicates similar MOC variability characteristics on time scales up to a decade; both model architectures also simulate an upward trend in MOC strength between the early 1970s and mid-1990s. The causes of the MOC changes are examined by perturbation experiments aimed selectively at the response to individual forcing components. The solutions emphasize an inherently linear character of the midlatitude MOC variability by demonstrating that the anomalies of a (non–eddy resolving) hindcast simulation can be understood as a superposition of decadal and longer-term signals originating from thermohaline forcing variability, and a higher-frequency wind-driven variability. The thermohaline MOC signal is linked to the variability in subarctic deep-water formation, and rapidly progressing to the tropical Atlantic. However, throughout the subtropical and midlatitude North Atlantic, this signal is effectively masked by stronger MOC variability related to wind forcing and, especially north of 30°–35°N, by internally induced (eddy) fluctuations.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2404.1
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 8
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    Increase in Agulhas leakage due to poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere westerlies (2009)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature, 462 . pp. 495-498.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: The transport of warm and salty Indian Ocean waters into the Atlantic Ocean—the Agulhas leakage—has a crucial role in the global oceanic circulation1 and thus the evolution of future climate. At present these waters provide the main source of heat and salt for the surface branch of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC)2. There is evidence from past glacial-to-interglacial variations in foraminiferal assemblages3 and model studies4 that the amount of Agulhas leakage and its corresponding effect on the MOC has been subject to substantial change, potentially linked to latitudinal shifts in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies5. A progressive poleward migration of the westerlies has been observed during the past two to three decades and linked to anthropogenic forcing6, but because of the sparse observational records it has not been possible to determine whether there has been a concomitant response of Agulhas leakage. Here we present the results of a high-resolution ocean general circulation model7, 8 to show that the transport of Indian Ocean waters into the South Atlantic via the Agulhas leakage has increased during the past decades in response to the change in wind forcing. The increased leakage has contributed to the observed salinification9 of South Atlantic thermocline waters. Both model and historic measurements off South America suggest that the additional Indian Ocean waters have begun to invade the North Atlantic, with potential implications for the future evolution of the MOC.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1038/nature08519
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
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