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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Historical and Projected Changes in the Southern Hemisphere Surface Westerlies
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2021
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 48, No. 4 ( 2021-02-28)
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 48, No. 4 ( 2021-02-28)
    Abstract: Recent observational record is strongly affected by internal variability and is not a good indicator of the forced changes in the westerlies Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models show a reduction in the equatorward bias in the location of the westerlies as compared to CMIP5 There are significant regional and seasonal differences in wind changes that need to be considered when simulating past and future trends
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2020GL090849
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Future Changes to El Niño–Southern Oscillation Temperature and Precipitation Teleconnections
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2017
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 44, No. 20 ( 2017-10-28)
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 44, No. 20 ( 2017-10-28)
    Abstract: The majority of CMIP5 models project robust increases in the spatial extent of ENSO temperature and precipitation teleconnections over land The increase in area is related to the amplified ENSO‐driven precipitation across the equatorial Pacific in the future Despite the robust increase in area over land, we do not find a consistent strengthening of these teleconnections in the individual models
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/grl.v44.20
    DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074509
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Communications Earth & Environment Vol. 2, No. 1 ( 2021-01-07)
    Details
    In: Communications Earth & Environment, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 2, No. 1 ( 2021-01-07)
    Abstract: The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, the radiative power of the fires, and the extraordinary number of fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched in the historical record. Australia’s hottest and driest year on record, 2019, was characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads that primed the landscape to burn when exposed to dangerous fire weather and ignition. The combination of climate variability and long-term climate trends generated the climate extremes experienced in 2019, and the compounding effects of two or more modes of climate variability in their fire-promoting phases (as occurred in 2019) has historically increased the chances of large forest fires occurring in southeast Australia. Palaeoclimate evidence also demonstrates that fire-promoting phases of tropical Pacific and Indian ocean variability are now unusually frequent compared with natural variability in pre-industrial times. Indicators of forest fire danger in southeast Australia have already emerged outside of the range of historical experience, suggesting that projections made more than a decade ago that increases in climate-driven fire risk would be detectable by 2020, have indeed eventuated. The multiple climate change contributors to fire risk in southeast Australia, as well as the observed non-linear escalation of fire extent and intensity, raise the likelihood that fire events may continue to rapidly intensify in the future. Improving local and national adaptation measures while also pursuing ambitious global climate change mitigation efforts would provide the best strategy for limiting further increases in fire risk in southeast Australia.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2662-4435
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s43247-020-00065-8
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3037243-4
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Reduction in surface climate change achieved by the 1987 Montreal Protocol
    IOP Publishing ; 2019
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 14, No. 12 ( 2019-12-01), p. 124041-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 14, No. 12 ( 2019-12-01), p. 124041-
    Abstract: The benefits of the 1987 Montreal Protocol in reducing chlorofluorocarbon emissions, repairing the stratospheric ozone hole, shielding incoming UV radiation, reducing the incidence of skin cancer and mitigating negative ecosystem effects are all well documented. Projected future climate impacts have also been described, mainly focused on a reduced impact of the mid-latitude jet as the ozone hole gradually repairs. However, there is little appreciation of the surface warming that has been avoided as a result of the Montreal Protocol, despite CFCs being potent greenhouse gases. Instead, the issue of ozone depletion and climate change are often thought of as two distinct problems, even though both ozone and CFCs impact Earth’s radiation budget. Here we show that a substantial amount of warming has been avoided because of the Montreal Protocol, even after factoring in the surface cooling associated with stratospheric ozone depletion. As of today, as much as 1.1 °C warming has been avoided over parts of the Arctic. Future climate benefits are even stronger, with 3 °C–4 °C Arctic warming and ∼1 °C global average warming avoided by 2050; corresponding to a ∼25% mitigation of global warming. The Montreal Protocol has thus not only been a major success in repairing the stratospheric ozone hole, it has also achieved substantial mitigation of anthropogenic climate change both today and into the future.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4874
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Zonal wave 3 pattern in the Southern Hemisphere generated by tropical convection
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Nature Geoscience Vol. 14, No. 10 ( 2021-10), p. 732-738
    Details
    In: Nature Geoscience, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 14, No. 10 ( 2021-10), p. 732-738
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1752-0894 , 1752-0908
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00811-3
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2396648-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2405323-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Biological Impacts of Marine Heatwaves
    Annual Reviews ; 2023
    In:  Annual Review of Marine Science Vol. 15, No. 1 ( 2023-01-16), p. 119-145
    Details
    In: Annual Review of Marine Science, Annual Reviews, Vol. 15, No. 1 ( 2023-01-16), p. 119-145
    Abstract: Climatic extremes are becoming increasingly common against a background trend of global warming. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs)—discrete periods of anomalously warm water—have intensified and become more frequent over the past century, impacting the integrity of marine ecosystems globally. We review and synthesize current understanding of MHW impacts at the individual, population, and community levels. We then examine how these impacts affect broader ecosystem services and discuss the current state of research on biological impacts of MHWs. Finally, we explore current and emergent approaches to predicting the occurrence andimpacts of future events, along with adaptation and management approaches. With further increases in intensity and frequency projected for coming decades, MHWs are emerging as pervasive stressors to marine ecosystems globally. A deeper mechanistic understanding of their biological impacts is needed to better predict and adapt to increased MHW activity in the Anthropocene.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1941-1405 , 1941-0611
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1146/marine.2023.15.issue-1
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev-marine-032122-121437
    Language: English
    Publisher: Annual Reviews
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2458404-6
    SSG: 12
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Contribution of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on Australian Summer Rainfall during El Niño Events
    American Meteorological Society ; 2011
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 24, No. 14 ( 2011-07-15), p. 3734-3747
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 24, No. 14 ( 2011-07-15), p. 3734-3747
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the atmospheric circulation of the Southern Hemisphere during El Niño events, with a focus on Australian climate. During El Niño episodes, the tropical Indian Ocean exhibits two types of SST response: a uniform “basinwide warming” and a dipole mode—the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). While the impacts of the IOD on climate have been extensively studied, the effects of the basinwide warming, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, have received less attention. The interannual basinwide warming response has important implications for Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation because 1) it accounts for a greater portion of the Indian Ocean monthly SST variance than the IOD pattern and 2) its maximum amplitude occurs during austral summer to early autumn, when large parts of Australia, South America, and Africa experience their monsoon. Using observations and numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model forced with historical SST from 1949 to 2005 over different tropical domains, the authors show that the basinwide warming leads to a Gill–Matsuno-type response that reinforces the anomalies caused by changes in the Pacific as part of El Niño. In particular, the basinwide warming drives strong subsidence over Australia, prolonging the dry conditions during January–March, when El Niño–related SST starts to decay. In addition to the anomalous circulation in the tropics, the basinwide warming excites a pair of barotropic anomalies in the Indian Ocean extratropics that induces an anomalous anticyclone in the Great Australian Bight.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI3885.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2011
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Dynamics and Predictability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation: An Australian Perspective on Progress and Challenges
    American Meteorological Society ; 2019
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 100, No. 3 ( 2019-03), p. 403-420
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 100, No. 3 ( 2019-03), p. 403-420
    Abstract: El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cold phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), cause significant year-to-year disruptions in global climate, including in the atmosphere, oceans, and cryosphere. Australia is one of the countries where its climate, including droughts and flooding rains, is highly sensitive to the temporal and spatial variations of ENSO. The dramatic impacts of ENSO on the environment, society, health, and economies worldwide make the application of reliable ENSO predictions a powerful way to manage risks and resources. An improved understanding of ENSO dynamics in a changing climate has the potential to lead to more accurate and reliable ENSO predictions by facilitating improved forecast systems. This motivated an Australian national workshop on ENSO dynamics and prediction that was held in Sydney, Australia, in November 2017. This workshop followed the aftermath of the 2015/16 extreme El Niño, which exhibited different characteristics to previous extreme El Niños and whose early evolution since 2014 was challenging to predict. This essay summarizes the collective workshop perspective on recent progress and challenges in understanding ENSO dynamics and predictability and improving forecast systems. While this essay discusses key issues from an Australian perspective, many of the same issues are important for other ENSO-affected countries and for the international ENSO research community.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0057.1
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    On Challenges in Predicting Bottom Water Transport in the Southern Ocean
    American Meteorological Society ; 2012
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 25, No. 4 ( 2012-02-15), p. 1349-1356
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 25, No. 4 ( 2012-02-15), p. 1349-1356
    Abstract: Changes in the Southern Ocean lower-limb overturning circulation are analyzed using a set of climate models. In agreement with some recently developed theoretical models, it is found that the overturning can be strongly affected by winds. In particular, the simulated strengthening of large-scale southward transport in the abyss is explicitly driven by zonal wind stress. However, there is a considerable range among the climate models in their projected changes of Southern Ocean wind stress. Furthermore, the strengthening of large-scale southward transport tends to be compensated by eddy-induced northward flows in the abyss, particularly at eddy-permitting resolution. As a result, the net Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) export may only be weakly affected. However, none of the models considered accounts for the possibility that a fraction of the eddy kinetic energy may be converted to diapycnal mixing. If this were the case, the presented energetic arguments suggest that stronger Southern Ocean winds would result in a stronger AABW transport.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00040.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2012
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 10
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    Online Resource
    Can Polar Stratospheric Clouds Explain Arctic Amplification?
    American Meteorological Society ; 2023
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 36, No. 8 ( 2023-04-15), p. 2313-2332
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 36, No. 8 ( 2023-04-15), p. 2313-2332
    Abstract: Climate models underestimate the magnitude of Arctic warming in past warm climates, like the early Cretaceous and Paleogene periods, implying that certain physical processes might be missing or poorly represented. Previous studies suggest that a large increase in wintertime Arctic polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) might have promoted Arctic amplification through additional greenhouse warming. High methane concentrations in warm climates might have increased stratospheric water vapor providing favorable conditions for PSCs. However, methane concentrations in past warm climates are extremely uncertain. Here, we revisit the PSC hypothesis by exploring PSC changes under very high methane levels, 4× preindustrial carbon dioxide, and strong polar-amplified surface warming, using a whole-atmosphere model with fully interactive chemistry. We find that with polar-amplified warming there is a large increase in Arctic outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) that reduces as the methane concentration is increased. PSCs increase monotonically with methane concentration. A large radiative cooling and an increase in water vapor in the stratosphere increases Arctic PSCs, which follow a power law with respect to relative humidity. Using a two-way partial radiative perturbation technique, we show that the OLR reduction due to PSCs is similar to the direct radiative forcing of methane for high methane levels. Thus, we find that PSCs could play an important role in Arctic warming in a warmer-than-present-day climate, but only if methane levels were higher than suggested by previous modeling studies for past warm climates.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0497.1
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0497.s1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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