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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Late-twentieth-century emergence of the El Niño propagation asymmetry and future projections
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2013
    In:  Nature Vol. 504, No. 7478 ( 2013-12-05), p. 126-130
    Details
    In: Nature, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 504, No. 7478 ( 2013-12-05), p. 126-130
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0028-0836 , 1476-4687
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/nature12683
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    UA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 120714-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1413423-8
    SSG: 11
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Atmospheric Responses of Gill-Type and Lindzen–Nigam Models to Global Warming
    American Meteorological Society ; 2011
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 24, No. 23 ( 2011-12-01), p. 6165-6173
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 24, No. 23 ( 2011-12-01), p. 6165-6173
    Abstract: The equatorial Pacific atmosphere responds differently to global warming in the Gill-type and Lindzen–Nigam models. Under an assumption of no change in the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the Gill-type model, the Walker circulation is intensified in a warmer climate relative to current climatic conditions, while slightly weakened in the Lindzen–Nigam model. Furthermore, for more accurate derivation of the surface wind, the free atmosphere in the Gill-type model is combined with the atmospheric boundary layer. This modified Gill-type model actually produces weaker surface wind than the Gill-type model would, but the sensitivity of the Walker circulation to the warmer climate is similar to that obtained from the Gill-type model. These results may explain why the zonal gradient of equatorial Pacific SST during the twentieth century is observed to strengthen while the Walker circulation is not, even though they are dynamically linked.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI3971.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2011
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Warm Pool and Cold Tongue El Niño Events as Simulated by the GFDL 2.1 Coupled GCM
    American Meteorological Society ; 2010
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 23, No. 5 ( 2010-03-01), p. 1226-1239
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 23, No. 5 ( 2010-03-01), p. 1226-1239
    Abstract: Recent studies report that two types of El Niño events have been observed. One is the cold tongue (CT) El Niño, which is characterized by relatively large sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern Pacific, and the other is the warm pool (WP) El Niño, in which SST anomalies are confined to the central Pacific. Here, both types of El Niño events are analyzed in a long-term coupled GCM simulation. The present model simulates the major observed features of both types of El Niño, incorporating the distinctive patterns of each oceanic and atmospheric variable. It is also demonstrated that each type of El Niño has quite distinct dynamic processes, which control their evolutions. The CT El Niño exhibits strong equatorial heat discharge poleward and thus the dynamical feedbacks control the phase transition from a warm event to a cold event. On the other hand, the discharge process in the WP El Niño is weak because of its spatial distribution of ocean dynamic field. The positive SST anomaly of WP El Niño is thermally damped through the intensified evaporative cooling.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI3293.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2010
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    ENSO-Like and ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability in CGCMs
    American Meteorological Society ; 2013
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 26, No. 5 ( 2013-03-01), p. 1485-1501
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 26, No. 5 ( 2013-03-01), p. 1485-1501
    Abstract: Outputs from coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are used in examining tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) and their relationships with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Herein TPDV is classified as either ENSO-induced TPDV (EIT) or ENSO-like TPDV (ELT), based on their correlations with a decadal modulation index of ENSO amplitude and spatial pattern. EIT is identified by the leading EOF mode of the low-pass filtered equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies and is highly correlated with the decadal ENSO modulation index. This mode is characterized by an east–west dipole structure along the equator. ELT is usually defined by the first EOF mode of subsurface temperature, of which the spatial structure is similar to ENSO. Generally, this mode is insignificantly correlated with the decadal modulation of ENSO. EIT closely interacts with the residuals induced by ENSO asymmetries, both of which show similar spatial structures. On the other hand, ELT is controlled by slowly varying ocean adjustments analogous to a recharge oscillator of ENSO. Both types of TPDV have similar spectral peaks on a decadal-to-interdecadal time scale. Interestingly, the variances of both types of TPDV depend on the strength of connection between El Niño–La Niña residuals and EIT, such that the strong two-way feedback between them enhances EIT and reduces ELT. The strength of the two-way feedback is also related to ENSO variability. The flavors of El Niño–La Niña with respect to changes in the tropical Pacific mean state tend to be well simulated when ENSO variability is larger in CGCMs. As a result, stronger ENSO variability leads to intensified interactive feedback between ENSO residuals and enhanced EIT in CGCMs.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00118.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    ENSO Feedbacks and Associated Time Scales of Variability in a Multimodel Ensemble
    American Meteorological Society ; 2010
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 23, No. 12 ( 2010-06-15), p. 3181-3204
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 23, No. 12 ( 2010-06-15), p. 3181-3204
    Abstract: The background state of the equatorial Pacific determines the prevalence of a “slow” recharge oscillator-type ENSO over a “fast” quasi-biennial surface-driven ENSO. The first is controlled to a large extent by the thermocline feedback, whereas the latter is related to enhanced zonal advective feedback. In this study, dynamical diagnostics are used to investigate the relative importance of these two feedbacks in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and its relation with the differences in ENSO-like variability among the models. The focus is on the role of the mean oceanic surface circulation in controlling the relative weight of the two feedbacks. By the means of an intermediate-type ocean model of the tropical Pacific “tuned” from the coupled general circulation model (CGCM) outputs, the contribution of the advection terms (vertical versus zonal) to the rate of SST change is estimated. A new finding is that biases in the advection terms are to a large extent related to the biases in the mean surface circulation. The latter are used to infer the dominant ENSO feedback for each CGCM. This allows for the classification of the CGCMs into three groups that account for the dominant feedback process of the ENSO cycle: horizontal advection (mainly in the western Pacific), vertical advection (mainly in the eastern Pacific), and the combination of both mechanisms. Based on such classification, the analysis also reveals that the models exhibit distinctive behavior with respect to the characteristics of ENSO: for most models, an enhanced (diminished) contribution of the zonal advective feedback is associated with faster (slower) ENSO and a tendency toward a cooler (warmer) mean state in the western-to-central Pacific Ocean. The results support the interpretation that biases in the mean state are sustained/maintained by the privileged mode of variability associated with the dominant feedback mechanism in the models. In particular, the models having a dominant zonal advective feedback exhibit significant cold SST asymmetry (or negative skewness) in the western equatorial Pacific.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI2830.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2010
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Influence of Recent Stratification Changes on ENSO Stability in a Conceptual Model of the Equatorial Pacific
    American Meteorological Society ; 2013
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 26, No. 13 ( 2013-07-01), p. 4790-4802
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 26, No. 13 ( 2013-07-01), p. 4790-4802
    Abstract: Changes in the mean circulation of the equatorial Pacific Ocean partly control the strong decadal modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This relationship is considered from the linear stability of a conceptual recharge/discharge model with parameters tuned from the observed mean state. Whereas decadal changes in the mean thermocline depth alone are usually considered in conceptual ENSO models, here focus is given to decadal changes in the mean stratification of the entire upper ocean (e.g., the mean thermocline depth, intensity, and thickness). Those stratification changes modify the projection of wind stress forcing momentum onto the gravest ocean baroclinic modes. Their influence on the simulated frequency and growth rate is comparable in intensity to the one of usual thermodynamic and atmospheric feedbacks, while they have here a secondary effect on the spatial structure and propagation of SST anomalies. This sensitivity is evidenced in particular for the climate shift of the 1970s in the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) dataset, as well as in a preindustrial simulation of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model showing stratification changes similar to the ones after 2000. Despite limitations of the linear stability approach, conclusions on the sensitivity to stratification may be extended to interpret the modulation and diversity of ENSO in observations and in general circulation models.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00363.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Linear solutions for the frequency and amplitude modulation of ENSO by the annual cycle
    Stockholm University Press ; 2011
    In:  Tellus A ( 2011-03)
    Details
    In: Tellus A, Stockholm University Press, ( 2011-03)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1600-0870 , 0280-6495
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v63i2.15776
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    RVK:
    UA 8382.1
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Stockholm University Press
    Publication Date: 2011
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2026987-0
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Understanding ENSO Regime Behavior upon an Increase in the Warm-Pool Temperature Using a Simple ENSO Model
    American Meteorological Society ; 2011
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 24, No. 5 ( 2011-03-01), p. 1438-1450
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 24, No. 5 ( 2011-03-01), p. 1438-1450
    Abstract: The regime behavior of the low-order El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) model, according to an increase in the radiative–convective equilibrium sea surface temperature (SST; Tr), is studied to provide a possible explanation for the observed increase in ENSO irregularity characterized by decadal modulation. During recent decades, a clear increasing trend of the warm-pool SST has been observed. In this study, the increase in the warm-pool maximum SST is interpreted as an increase in Tr following previous studies. A bifurcation analysis with Tr as a control parameter is conducted to reveal that the degree of ENSO irregularity in the model is effectively controlled by the equilibrium states of the model. At a critical value of Tr, bifurcation analysis reveals that period-doubling bifurcation occurs and an amplitude-modulated ENSO emerges. At this point, a subcycle appears within the preexisting ENSO cycle, which initiates decadal modulation of ENSO. As Tr increases further, nested oscillations are successively generated, illustrating clear decadal modulation of ENSO. The qualitative regime changes revealed in this study are supported by the observation of regime shifts in the 1970s. With increasing Tr, the mean zonal SST gradient increases, and the model adjusts toward a “La Niña–like” mean state. Further constraint with shoaling of the mean thermocline depth and increasing stratification causes ENSO to exhibit stronger amplitude modulation. Furthermore, the timing of the period-doubling bifurcation advances with these two effects.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3635.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2011
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Sensitivity of ENSO to Stratification in a Recharge–Discharge Conceptual Model
    American Meteorological Society ; 2011
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 24, No. 16 ( 2011-08-15), p. 4332-4349
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 24, No. 16 ( 2011-08-15), p. 4332-4349
    Abstract: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is driven by large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions in the equatorial Pacific and is sensitive to change in the mean state. Whereas conceptual models of ENSO usually consider the depth of the thermocline to be influential on the stability of ENSO, the observed changes in the depth of the 20°C isotherm are rather weak, on the order of approximately 5 m over the last decades. Conversely, change in stratification that affects both the intensity and sharpness of the thermocline can be pronounced. Here, the two-strip conceptual model of An and Jin is extended to include three parameters (i.e., the contribution of the first three baroclinic modes) that account for the main characteristics of the mean thermocline vertical structure. A stability analysis of the model is carried out that indicates that the model sustains a lower ENSO mode when the high-order baroclinic modes (M2 and M3) are considered. The sensitivity of the model solution to the coupling efficiency further indicates that, in the weak coupling regime, the model allows for several ocean basin modes at low frequency. The latter can eventually merge into a low-frequency and unstable mode representative of ENSO as the coupling efficiency increases. Also, higher baroclinic modes project more energy onto the ocean dynamics for the same input of wind forcing. Therefore, in this study’s model, a shallower, yet more intense mean thermocline may still sustain a strong (i.e., unstable) and low-frequency ENSO mode. Sensitivity tests to the strength of the two dominant feedbacks (thermocline vs zonal advection) indicate that the presence of high-order baroclinic modes favors the bifurcation from a low-frequency regime to a higher-frequency regime when the zonal advective feedback is enhanced. It is suggested that the proposed formalism can be used to interpret and measure the sensitivity of coupled general circulation models to climate change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4148.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2011
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Inverse Effect of Annual-Mean State and Annual-Cycle Changes on ENSO
    American Meteorological Society ; 2010
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 23, No. 5 ( 2010-03-01), p. 1095-1110
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 23, No. 5 ( 2010-03-01), p. 1095-1110
    Abstract: The influence of the tropical Pacific annual-mean state on the annual-cycle amplitude and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is studied using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology coupled general circulation model (CGCM) ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM1). In a greenhouse warming experiment, an intensified annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Pacific is associated with reduced ENSO variability, and vice versa. Analysis showed that the annual-mean states, especially the surface warming in the western Pacific and the thermocline deepening in the central Pacific, which is concurrent with the strong annual cycle, act to suppress ENSO amplitude and to intensify the annual-cycle amplitude, and vice versa. The western Pacific warming acts to reduce air–sea coupling strength and to shorten the ocean adjustment time scale, and the deepening of central Pacific thermocline acts to diminish vertical advection of the anomalous ocean temperature by the annual-mean upwelling. Consequently, ENSO activity is suppressed by the annual-mean states during the strong annual-cycle decades, and the opposite case associated with the weak annual-cycle decades is also true. Furthermore, the time integration of an intermediate ENSO model forced with different background state configurations, and a stability analysis of its linearized version, show that annual-mean background states during the weak (strong) annual-cycle decades are characterized by an enhanced (reduced) linear growth rate of ENSO or similarly large (small) variability of ENSO. However, the annual-cycle component of the background state changes cannot significantly modify ENSO variability. Using a hybrid coupled model, it is demonstrated that diagnosed annual-mean background states corresponding to a reduced (enhanced) annual cycle suppress (enhance) the development of the annual cycle of SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific, mainly through the weakening (intensifying) of zonal temperature advection of annual-mean SST by the annual-cycle zonal current. The above results support the idea that climate background state changes control both ENSO and the annual-cycle amplitude in opposing ways.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2895.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2010
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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