Description: The mainshock and moderate-magnitude aftershocks of the 6 April 2009 M  6.3 L’Aquila seismic sequence, about 90 km northeast of Rome, provided the first earthquake ground-motion recordings in the urban area of Rome. Before those recordings were obtained, the assessments of the seismic hazard in Rome were based on intensity observations and theoretical considerations. The L’Aquila recordings offer an unprecedented opportunity to calibrate the city response to central Apennine earthquakes—earthquakes that have been responsible for the largest damage to Rome in historical times. Using the data recorded in Rome in April 2009, we show that (1) published theoretical predictions of a 1 s resonance in the Tiber valley are confirmed by observations showing a significant amplitude increase in response spectra at that period, (2) the empirical soil-transfer functions inferred from spectral ratios are satisfactorily fit through 1D models using the available geological, geophysical, and laboratory data, but local variability can be large for individual events, (3) response spectra for the motions recorded in Rome from the L’Aquila earthquakes are significantly amplified in the radial component at periods near 1 s, even at a firm site on volcanic rocks, and (4) short-period response spectra are smaller than expected when compared to ground-motion predictions from equations based on a global dataset, whereas the observed response spectra are higher than expected for periods near 1 s. Online Material: Velocity models used in computing theoretical site response.

Description: ABSTRACT In this study, we aim to close the gap between regional and global traveltime tomography in the context of surface wave tomography of the upper mantle implementing the principle of adaptive parametrization. Observations of seismic surface waves are a very powerful tool to constrain the 3-D structure of the Earth’s upper mantle, including its anisotropy, because they sample this volume efficiently due to their sensitivity over a wide depth range along the ray path. On a global scale, surface wave tomography models are often parametrized uniformly, without accounting for inhomogeneities in data coverage and, as a result, in resolution, that are caused by effective under- or overparametrization in many areas. If the local resolving power of seismic data is not taken into account when parametrizing the model, features will be smeared and distorted in tomographic maps, with subsequent misinterpretation. Parametrization density has to change locally, for models to be robustly constrained without losing any accurate information available in the best sampled regions. We have implemented a new algorithm for upper mantle surface wave tomography, based on adaptive-voxel parametrization, with voxel size defined by both the ‘hit count’ (number of observations sampling the voxel) and ‘azimuthal coverage’ (how well different azimuths with respect to the voxel are covered by the source-station distribution). High image resolution is achieved in regions with dense data coverage, while lower image resolution is kept in regions where data coverage is poorer. This way, parametrization is everywhere tuned to optimal resolution, minimizing both the computational costs, and the non-uniqueness of the solution. The spacing of our global grid is locally as small as ∼50 km. We apply our method to identify a new global model of vertically and horizontally polarized shear velocity, with resolution particularly enhanced in the European lithosphere and upper mantle. We find our new model to resolve lithospheric thickness and radial anisotropy better than earlier results based on the same data. Robust features of our model include, for example, the Trans-European Suture Zone, the Panonnian Basin, thinned lithosphere in the Aegean and Western Mediterranean, possible small-scale mantle upwellings under Iberia and Massif Central, subduction under the Aegean arc and a very deep cratonic root underneath southern Finland.

Description: [1]  Ambient-noise seismology is of great relevance to high-resolution crustal imaging, thanks to the unprecedented dense data coverage it affords in regions of little seismicity. Under the assumption of uniformly distributed noise sources, it has been used to extract the Green’s function between two receivers. We determine the imprint of this assumption by means of wave propagation and adjoint methods in realistic 3D Earth models. In this context, we quantify the sensitivity of ambient-noise cross correlations from central Europe with respect to noise-source locations and shear wavespeed structure. We use ambient noise recorded over one year at 196 stations, resulting in a database of 864 cross-correlations. Our mesh is built upon a combined crustal and 3D tomographic model. We simulate synthetic ambient-noise cross-correlations in different frequency bands using a 3D spectral-element method. Traveltime cross-correlation measurements in these different frequency bands define the misfit between synthetics and observations as a basis to compute sensitivity kernels using the adjoint method. We perform a comprehensive analysis varying geographic station and noise-source distributions around the European seas. The deterministic sensitivity analysis allows for estimating where the starting crustal model shows better accordance with our dataset and gain insight into the distribution of noise sources in the European region. This highlights the potential importance to consider localized noise distributions for tomographic imaging and forms the basis of a tomographic inversion in which the distribution of noise sources may be treated as a free parameter similar to earthquake tomography.

Description: Here we inverted the GPS data to infer the coseismic slip of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the time-dependent afterslip distribution in the 4 months following the main shock. The Tohoku-Oki earthquake showed an unexpected magnitude and a characteristic depth-dependent differentiation of seismic energy radiation. In this context the estimation and comparison of the distribution of the fault portions that slip coseismically and post-seismically contribute to a better understanding of the variation of frictional characteristics of the plate interface. The inferred coseismic slip extends in a relatively compact region located updip from the hypocentre and reaches its highest value (about 60 m) near the trench. Afterslip occurs mostly outside the coseismic rupture and is distributed in two main modal centres. It reaches its largest values in an area located downdip of the coseismic slip and extends to a depth of 80 km. In the depth range between 30 and 50 km afterslip overlaps the portion of the fault that experienced historical moderate earthquakes, high-frequency seismic radiation and thrust-type aftershocks. The behaviour of this area can be explained by a rheologically heterogeneous region made of a ductile fault matrix interspersed with compact brittle asperities. On the contrary, the region beneath 50–60 km depth is probably characterized by a fully velocity strengthening behaviour. Southern afterslip, located off-Chiba Prefecture, is probably related to the M w 7.9 Ibaraki-Oki aftershock. The northward extension of the afterslip stops at a latitude of about 40°N, just south of the off-Aomori region. This may be related to three large events occurred in this area during the last century and the consequent strong coupling or complete depletion of the accumulated strain that characterize this region.

Description: The recent Mw 6.3 destructive L’Aquila earthquake has further stimulated the improvement of the Italian operational earthquake forecasting capability at different time intervals. Here, we describe a medium-term (10-year) forecast model for Mw≥5.5 earthquakes in Italy that aims at opening new possibilities for risk mitigation purposes. While a longer forecast yielded by the national seismic-hazard map is the primary component in establishing the building code, a medium-term earthquake forecast model may be useful to prioritize additional risk mitigation strategies such as the retrofitting of vulnerable structures. In particular, we have developed an earthquake occurrence model for a 10-year forecast that consists of a weighted average of time-independent and different types of available time-dependent models, based on seismotectonic zonations and regular grids. The inclusion of time-dependent models marks a difference with the earthquake occurrence model of the national seismic-hazard map, and it is motivated by the fact that, at the 10-year scale, the contribution of time-dependency in the earthquake occurrence process may play a major role. The models are assembled through a simple averaging scheme whereby each model is weighted through the results of a retrospective testing phase similar to the ones carried out in the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. In this way, the most hazardous Italian areas in the next ten years will arise from a combination of distinct models that place more emphasis on different aspects of the earthquake occurrence process, such as earthquake clustering, historical seismic rate, and the presence of delayed faults capable of large events. Finally, we report new challenges and possible developments for future updating of the model.

Description: Since 1997 we maintain and systematically update the European–Mediterranean Regional Centroid Moment Tensor (RCMT) catalog, which contains seismic-moment tensors for earthquakes with moderate magnitude (4.5 〈 M 〈 5.5) in the Mediterranean and European regions. We present 354 new solutions for the period 2005–2008. The Catalog now spans 12 years and contains more than 1000 definitive RCMT solutions. In addition to definitive solutions, we maintain and update a dataset of recent ‘quick’ solutions that are computed soon after an earthquake occurs using the more limited set of data available in quasi-real time. We investigate the reliability of the moment tensor results in the RCMT catalog. Comparison with Global CMT results, which is possible for the larger events (M 〈 5.0) in the RCMT catalog, shows that for 75% of the events, the Kagan angle measure of the similarity of two moment tensors is smaller than 20°, reflecting good agreement of the results. We describe improvements and enhancements in the dissemination of the RCMT results through our web site.

Description: We present an update, for years 2003 and 2004, of the European– Mediterranean Regional Centroid Moment Tensor (RCMT) catalog that we maintain since 1997. This update adds 177 new solutions to the database, relating to moderate-magnitude () earthquakes. About 30% of our new solutions also appear in the global CMT catalog: comparison of the two independent determinations generally shows very good agreement. Within the time span covered, the most noticeable seismic sequences occurred in Northern Africa (Boumerdes, Algerian coast in 2003 and Al Hoceima, Morocco in 2004) and in Southern Greece and Dodecanese region (August 2003 and 2004). The complete RCMT catalog for the European and Mediterranean region now covers 8 years, and contains about 600 solutions.