Note: Intro -- TITLE PAGE -- COPYRIGHT PAGE -- CONTENTS -- CONTRIBUTORS -- CHAPTER 1 UNCERTAINTY IN NATURAL HAZARDS, MODELING AND DECISION SUPPORT: AN INTRODUCTION TO THIS VOLUME -- 1.1. INTRODUCTION -- 1.2. ORIGINS AND OBJECTIVES OF THIS VOLUME -- 1.3. STRUCTURE -- 1.4. A SYNTHESIS: LEARNING FROM THIS MONOGRAPH -- 1.5. CONCLUSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- PART I UNCERTAINTY, COMMUNICATION, AND DECISION SUPPORT -- CHAPTER 2 NATURAL HAZARD MODELING AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS -- 2.1. INTRODUCTION -- 2.2. IDENTIFYING AND CLASSIFYING UNCERTAINTIES -- 2.3. GUIDANCE FOR IDENTIFYING AND CLASSIFYING UNCERTAINTIES -- 2.4. TECHNIQUES FOR EVALUATING UNCERTAINTY -- 2.5. DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 3 UNDERSTANDING UNCERTAINTY AS A KEY INTERDISCIPLINARY PROBLEM IN EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- APPENDIX -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 4 UNCERTAINTY AND PROBABILITY IN WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT: AN EXAMPLE FROM THE UNITED STATES -- 4.1. INTRODUCTION -- 4.2. WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT -- 4.3. PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION AND RISK-BASED WILDFIRE DECISION SUPPORT -- 4.4. FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR WILDFIRE DECISION SUPPORT -- 4.5. CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 5 ROLE OF UNCERTAINTY IN DECISION SUPPORT FOR VOLCANIC ASH CLOUD MODELING -- 5.1. INTRODUCTION -- 5.2. CLASSIFYING THE UNCERTAINTY -- 5.3. QUANTIFYING THE UNCERTAINTY -- 5.4. MITIGATING THE UNCERTAINTY AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE -- 5.5. APPLICATION OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM -- 5.6. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- PART II GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS -- CHAPTER 6 BUILDING AN UNCERTAINTY MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR REAL-TIME VATD -- 6.1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND -- 6.2. METHODOLOGY -- 6.3. PROBABILISTIC MODELING RESULTS -- 6.4. DISCUSSION -- 6.5. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 7 UNCERTAINTIES IN ESTIMATING MAGMA SOURCE PARAMETERS FROM INSAR OBSERVATION. , 7.1. INTRODUCTION -- 7.2. VOLCANO DEFORMATION FROM INSAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTIES -- 7.3. RETRIEVAL OF MAGMA SOURCE PARAMETERS FROM INSAR AND ASSOCIATED MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTIES -- 7.4. DISCUSSION ON IMPACTS OF OTHER GEOPHYSICAL ASSUMPTIONS ON THE MOGI SOURCE MODEL -- 7.5. CONCLUSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 8 IMPROVING MODEL SIMULATIONS OF VOLCANIC EMISSION CLOUDS AND ASSESSING MODEL UNCERTAINTIES -- 8.1. INTRODUCTION -- 8.2. METHODS -- 8.3. EXAMPLE CASE STUDY: THE GRÍMSVÖTN 2011 ERUPTION -- 8.4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONs -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 9 UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF PYROCLASTIC DENSITY CURRENTS AT MOUNT VESUVIUS (ITALY) SIMULATED THROUGH THE ENERGY CONE MODEL -- 9.1. INTRODUCTION -- 9.2. METHODS -- 9.3. RESULTS -- 9.4. DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- NOTES -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 10 EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION IN THE GYEONGJU AREA, SOUTHEASTERN KOREA, USING A SITE CLASSIFICATION MAP -- 10.1. INTRODUCTION -- 10.2. METHODS -- 10.3. SEISMICITY IN THE KOREAN PENINSULA -- 10.4. SITE CLASSIFICATION MAP -- 10.5. SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE AND INVENTORY DATA FOR THE EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION -- 10.6. LOSS ESTIMATION RESULTS -- 10.7. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 11 IMPLICATIONS OF DIFFERENT DIGITAL ELEVATION MODELS AND PREPROCESSING TECHNIQUES TO DELINEATE DEBRIS FLOW INUNDATION HAZARD ZONES IN EL SALVADOR -- 11.1. INTRODUCTION -- 11.2. METHODS -- 11.3. RESULTS -- 11.4. DISCUSSION -- 11.5. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 12 EVALUATING THE PERFORMANCE OF FLO2D FOR SIMULATING PAST LAHAR EVENTS AT THE MOST ACTIVE MEXICAN VOLCANOES: POPOCATÉPETL AND VOLCÁN DE COLIMA -- 12.1. INTRODUCTION -- 12.2. METHODOLOGY -- 12.3. Results and Discussion -- 12.4. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- PART III BIOPHYSICAL AND CLIMATIC HAZARDS. , CHAPTER 13 AN UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF WILDFIRE MODELING -- 13.1. INTRODUCTION -- 13.2. METHODS -- 13.3. RESULTS -- 13.4. DISCUSSION -- 13.5. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 14 FIRE AND SMOKE REMOTE SENSING AND MODELING UNCERTAINTIES: CASE STUDIES IN NORTHERN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA -- 14.1. INTRODUCTION -- 14.2. METHODS -- 14.3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION -- 14.4. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 15 UNCERTAINTY AND COMPLEXITY TRADEOFFS WHEN INTEGRATING FIRE SPREAD WITH HYDROECOLOGICAL PROJECTIONS -- 15.1. INTRODUCTION -- 15.2. METHODS -- 15.3. RESULTS -- 15.4. DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 16 UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION AND PROPAGATION FOR PROJECTIONS OF EXTREMES IN MONTHLY AREA BURNED UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE: A CASE STUDY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OF GEORGIA, USA -- 16.1. INTRODUCTION -- 16.2. DATA -- 16.3. METHODS -- 16.4. RESULTS -- 16.5. DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 17 SIMULATING VEGETATION CHANGE, CARBON CYCLING, AND FIRE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES USING CMIP5 CLIMATE PROJECTIONS -- 17.1. INTRODUCTION -- 17.2. METHODS -- 17.3. RESULTS -- 17.4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 18 SENSITIVITY OF VEGETATION FIRES TO CLIMATE, VEGETATION, AND ANTHROPOGENIC DRIVERS IN THE HESFIRE MODEL: CONSEQUENCES FOR FIRE MODELING AND PROJECTION UNCERTAINTIES -- 18.1. INTRODUCTION -- 18.2. METHODS -- 18.3. DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 19 UNCERTAINTIES IN PREDICTING DEBRIS FLOW HAZARDS FOLLOWING WILDFIRE -- 19.1. INTRODUCTION -- 19.2 BIOPHYSICAL SETTING -- 19.3. FIRE PROCESSES -- 19.4. FIRE EFFECTS -- 19.5. RAINFALL TRIGGERS -- 19.6 DEBRIS FLOW INITIATION, MOBILIZATION, AND DEPOSITION -- 19.7. VALUES-AT-RISK -- 19.8. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES. , CHAPTER 20 CAPTURING SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATION IN WILDFIRES FOR IMPROVING POSTWILDFIRE DEBRIS-FLOW HAZARD ASSESSMENTS -- 20.1. INTRODUCTION -- 20.2. METHODS -- 20.3. RESULTS -- 20.4. DISCUSSION -- 20.5. CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 21 UNCERTAINTY IN ESTIMATION OF DEBRIS-FLOW TRIGGERING RAINFALL: EVALUATION AND IMPACT ON IDENTIFICATION OF THRESHOLD RELATIONSHIPS -- 21.1. INTRODUCTION -- 21.2. METHODS -- 21.3. RESULTS -- 21.4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 22 PROSPECTS IN LANDSLIDE PREDICTION: CONFRONTING THE CHALLENGES OF PRECIPITATION UNCERTAINTY -- 22.1. INTRODUCTION -- 22.2 DATA -- 22.3 PRECIPITATION-BASED LANDSLIDE PREDICTION -- 22.4 EXTENDING LANDSLIDE PREDICTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS -- 22.5 COMPARISON OF MODEL RESULTS -- 22.6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- INDEX -- EULA.