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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2023
    In:  Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology ( 2023-09-6)
    In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, American Meteorological Society, ( 2023-09-6)
    Abstract: We have developed additive logistic models for the occurrence of lightning, large (≥ 2 cm), and very large (≥ 5 cm) hail to investigate the evolution of these hazards in the past, in the future, and for forecasting applications. The models, trained with lightning observations, hail reports, and predictors from atmospheric reanalysis, assign an hourly probability to any location and time on a 0.25° × 0.25° × 1-hourly grid as a function of reanalysis-derived predictor parameters, selected following an ingredients-based approach. The resulting hail models outperform the Significant Hail Parameter and the simulated climatological spatial distributions and annual cycles of lightning and hail are consistent with observations from storm report databases, radar, and lightning detection data. As a corollary result, CAPE released above the -10°C isotherm was found to be a more universally skilful predictor for large hail than CAPE. In the period 1950–2021, the models applied to the ERA5 reanalysis indicate significant increases of lightning and hail across most of Europe, primarily due to rising low-level moisture. The strongest modelled hail increases occur in northern Italy with increasing rapidity after 2010. Here, very large hail has become 3 times more likely than it was in the 1950s. Across North America trends are comparatively small, apart from isolated significant increases in the direct lee of the Rocky Mountains and across the Canadian Plains. In the southern Plains, a period of enhanced storm activity occurred in the 1980s and 1990s.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1558-8424 , 1558-8432
    RVK:
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2023
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2023
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 23, No. 8 ( 2023-08-03), p. 2737-2748
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 23, No. 8 ( 2023-08-03), p. 2737-2748
    Abstract: Abstract. The effect of climate change on rockfalls in the German low mountain regions is investigated following two different approaches. The first approach uses a logistic regression model that describes the combined effect of precipitation, freeze–thaw cycles, and fissure water on rockfall probability. The climate change signal for the past 6 decades is analysed by applying the model to meteorological observations. The possible effect of climate change until the end of the century is explored by applying the statistical model to the output of a multi-model ensemble of 23 regional climate scenario simulations. It is found that the number of days per year exhibiting an above-average probability for rockfalls has mostly been decreasing during the last few decades. Statistical significance is, however, present at only a few sites. A robust and statistically significant decrease can be seen in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations for Germany and neighbouring regions, locally falling below −10 % when comparing the last 30 years of the 20th century to the last 30 years of the 21st century. The most important factor determining the projected decrease in rockfall probability is a reduction in the number of freeze–thaw cycles expected under future climate conditions. For the second approach four large-scale meteorological patterns that are associated with enhanced rockfall probability are identified from reanalysis data. The frequency of all four patterns exhibits a seasonal cycle that maximises in the cold half of the year (winter and spring). Trends in the number of days that can be assigned to these patterns are determined both in meteorological reanalysis data and in climate simulations. In the reanalysis no statistically significant trend is found. For the future scenario simulations all climate models show a statistically significant decrease in the number of rockfall-promoting weather situations.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2023
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2064587-9
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2020
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 20, No. 10 ( 2020-10-29), p. 2857-2871
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 10 ( 2020-10-29), p. 2857-2871
    Abstract: Abstract. Impacts of weather on road accidents have been identified in several studies with a focus mainly on monthly or daily accident counts. This study investigates hourly probabilities of road accidents caused by adverse weather conditions in Germany on the spatial scale of administrative districts using logistic regression models. Including meteorological predictor variables from radar-based precipitation estimates, high-resolution reanalysis and weather forecasts improves the prediction of accident probability compared to models without weather information. For example, the percentage of correctly predicted accidents (hit rate) is increased from 30 % to 70 %, while keeping the percentage of wrongly predicted accidents (false-alarm rate) constant at 20 %. When using ensemble weather forecasts up to 21 h instead of radar and reanalysis data, the decline in model performance is negligible. Accident probability has a nonlinear relationship with precipitation. Given an hourly precipitation sum of 1 mm, accident probabilities are approximately 5 times larger at negative temperatures compared to positive temperatures. The findings are relevant in the context of impact-based warnings for road users, road maintenance, traffic management and rescue forces.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2020
    In:  Nature Geoscience Vol. 13, No. 6 ( 2020-06), p. 408-413
    In: Nature Geoscience, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 13, No. 6 ( 2020-06), p. 408-413
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1752-0894 , 1752-0908
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2020
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    SSG: 16,13
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2022
    In:  European Transport Research Review Vol. 14, No. 1 ( 2022-12)
    In: European Transport Research Review, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 14, No. 1 ( 2022-12)
    Abstract: Weather has a substantial influence on people’s travel behavior. In this study we analyze if meteorological variables can improve predictions of hourly traffic counts at 1400 stations on federal roads and highways in Germany. Motorbikes, cars, vans and trucks are distinguished. It is evaluated in how far the mean squared error of Poisson regression models for hourly traffic counts is reduced by using precipitation, temperature, cloud cover and wind speed data. It is shown that in particular motorbike counts are strongly weather-dependent. On federal roads the mean squared error is reduced by up to 60% in models with meteorological predictor variables, when compared to models without meteorological variables. A detailed analysis of the models for motorbike counts reveals non-linear relationships between the meteorological variables and motorbike counts. Car counts are shown to be specifically sensitive to weather in touristic regions like seaside resorts and nature parks. The findings allow for several potential applications like improvements of route planning in navigation systems, implementations in traffic management systems, day-ahead planning of visitor numbers in touristic areas or the usage in road crash modelling.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1867-0717 , 1866-8887
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    IOP Publishing ; 2020
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 15, No. 3 ( 2020-03-01), p. 034031-
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 15, No. 3 ( 2020-03-01), p. 034031-
    Abstract: Convection-permitting models (CPMs)—the newest generation of high-resolution climate models—have been shown to greatly improve the representation of subdaily and hourly precipitation, in particular for extreme rainfall. Intense precipitation events, however, often occur on subhourly timescales. The distribution of subhourly precipitation, extreme or otherwise, during a rain event can furthermore have important knock-on effects on hydrological processes. Little is known about how well CPMs represent precipitation at the subhourly timescale, compared to the hourly. Here we perform multi-decadal CPM simulations centred over Catalonia and, comparing with a high temporal-resolution gauge network, find that the CPM simulates subhourly precipitation at least as well as hourly precipitation is simulated. While the CPM inherits a dry bias found in its parent model, across a range of diagnostics and aggregation times (5, 15, 30 and 60 min) we find no consistent evidence that the CPM precipitation bias worsens with shortening temporal aggregation. We furthermore show that the CPM excels in its representation of subhourly extremes, extending previous findings at the hourly timescale. Our findings support the use of CPMs for modelling subhourly rainfall and add confidence to CPM-based climate projections of future changes in subhourly precipitation, particularly for extremes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 7
    In: Ecology, Wiley, Vol. 104, No. 4 ( 2023-04)
    Abstract: The Neotropical region hosts 4225 freshwater fish species, ranking first among the world's most diverse regions for freshwater fishes. Our NEOTROPICAL FRESHWATER FISHES data set is the first to produce a large‐scale Neotropical freshwater fish inventory, covering the entire Neotropical region from Mexico and the Caribbean in the north to the southern limits in Argentina, Paraguay, Chile, and Uruguay. We compiled 185,787 distribution records, with unique georeferenced coordinates, for the 4225 species, represented by occurrence and abundance data. The number of species for the most numerous orders are as follows: Characiformes (1289), Siluriformes (1384), Cichliformes (354), Cyprinodontiformes (245), and Gymnotiformes (135). The most recorded species was the characid Astyanax fasciatus (4696 records). We registered 116,802 distribution records for native species, compared to 1802 distribution records for nonnative species. The main aim of the NEOTROPICAL FRESHWATER FISHES data set was to make these occurrence and abundance data accessible for international researchers to develop ecological and macroecological studies, from local to regional scales, with focal fish species, families, or orders. We anticipate that the NEOTROPICAL FRESHWATER FISHES data set will be valuable for studies on a wide range of ecological processes, such as trophic cascades, fishery pressure, the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation, and the impacts of species invasion and climate change. There are no copyright restrictions on the data, and please cite this data paper when using the data in publications.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0012-9658 , 1939-9170
    URL: Issue
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2023
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    SSG: 12
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  • 8
    In: Cancer Research, American Association for Cancer Research (AACR), Vol. 83, No. 5_Supplement ( 2023-03-01), p. P5-02-03-P5-02-03
    Abstract: Background In unselected HER2+ early breast cancer (EBC), de-escalated chemotherapy-free neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) with dual HER2-blockade induces pCR rates of only 20%-40%. In order to achieve pCR rates by de-escalated therapy comparable to those achieved by chemotherapy-based regimens, patient selection and more effective chemotherapy-free regimens are thus key. KEYRICHED-1 (NCT03988036), a single-arm phase 2 study, is the first trial to investigate chemotherapy-free NAT with dual HER2 blockade and pembrolizumab in HER2-enriched HER2+ EBC. In a translational subproject, we analyzed gene signatures together with tumor cell proliferation and spatiotemporal immune cell profiling to identify predictive factors for pCR. Methods 48 pre- and postmenopausal patients with newly diagnosed HER2 2+ (ISH positive) or 3+ EBC (stage I-III) and HER2-enriched (HER2-E) subtype by PAM50 were included in the study. All patients received 4 cycles of pembrolizumab (200 mg), trastuzumab biosimilar ABP 980 (loading dose (LD) 8 mg/kg bodyweight (BW), maintenance dose (MD) 6 mg/kg BW), and pertuzumab (LD 840 mg/kg BW, MD 420 mg/kg BW) q21d. Primary objective was pCR (centrally confirmed absence of invasive tumor in breast and lymph nodes: ypT0/is, ypN0). NanoString Breast Cancer 360 panel was performed in baseline biopsies (n=42). ≥30% Ki67 decrease, & lt; 500 invasive tumor cells or no evidence of tumor in week 3 biopsies (on treatment) were classified as early response. sTILs were analyzed at baseline (n=42) and week 3 (n=28). Ongoing analyses include whole exome sequencing and multiplexed immunohistochemistry for expression of PD1, PDL1, CD4, CD8, CD68, and CD20 levels in tumor and stroma at baseline and at week 3. Impact of standardized expression of single genes, signatures, and sTILs on pCR was evaluated with univariable and multivariate logistic regression analyses and summarized with odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results 42 patients with BC360 and sTILs data at baseline were included in the analysis. Median age was 55 years (range: 22-83), 11 patients (31%) had node-positive EBC. At baseline, 28 patients had sTIL levels ≥30% and 14 had sTILs & lt; 30%; the corresponding pCR rates were 57.1% (n=16) and 28.6% (n=4, p=0.108). At week 3 (on treatment), 16 patients had sTIL levels ≥30%, 50% (n=8) had a pCR vs 8.3% in those with & lt; 30% sTILs (one patient out of 12, p=0.039). 37 patients had early response, 54.1% of them (n=20) had a pCR vs 0% in early non-responders (n=5, p=0.049). In univariate analysis, IDO1, ERBB2, IFNγ, cytotoxic cells, cytotoxicity, CD8 T-cells, TIGIT, and tumor inflammation signatures were statistically significantly associated with pCR (OR 2.3-3.6); ERBB2, IDO1, IFNγ and CD8 T-cells remained significant after adjusting for hormone receptor (HR) and central HER2 status (OR 2.2-4.3). 70 single genes were predictive for pCR; none of them remained significant after false discovery rate adjustment (25%). In multivariable analysis for baseline markers including signatures, sTILs, HR and central HER2 status, only ERBB2 (OR 8.7, 95%CI 1.9-39.0, p=0.0046) and cytotoxic cells signatures (OR 4.6, 95%CI 1.6-13.5, p=0.0059) were predictive for pCR. Results of whole exome sequencing, and multiplexed immunohistochemistry analysis of immune cell markers will be presented at the Symposium. Conclusions Biomarker analysis in the unique KEYRICHED-1 cohort revealed that early response at week 3, ERBB2 and immune related signatures as well as on-therapy sTIL levels predict pCR after a chemotherapy-free combination of immunotherapy and dual HER2 blockade in HER2-enriched EBC. These results pave the way for validation in larger de-escalation trials investigating short, chemotherapy-free regimens in selected patients with HER2+ EBC. Funding for this research was provided by MSD Sharp & Dohme GmbH. Citation Format: Monika Graeser, Sherko Kuemmel, Oleg Gluz, Friedrich Feuerhake, Valery Volk, Daniel Ulbrich-Gebauer, Claudia Biehl, Mattea Reinisch, Athina Kostara9, Iris Scheffen, Kerstin Luedtke-Heckenkamp, Andreas Hartkopf, Felix Hilpert, Angela Kentsch, Carsten Ziske, Reinhard Depenbusch, Michael Braun, Jens-Uwe Blohmer, Christine zu Eulenburg, Matthias Christgen, Ronald Kates, Stephan Bartels, Hans-Heinrich Kreipe, Enrico Pelz, Peter Schmid, Nadia Harbeck. Combined biomarker analysis for prediction of pathological complete response (pCR) after 12 weeks of pembrolizumab + trastuzumab + pertuzumab in HER2-enriched early breast cancer: Keyriched-1 trial [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2022 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2022 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(5 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-02-03.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1538-7445
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Association for Cancer Research (AACR)
    Publication Date: 2023
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2022
    In:  European Transport Research Review Vol. 14, No. 1 ( 2022-12)
    In: European Transport Research Review, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 14, No. 1 ( 2022-12)
    Abstract:  Adverse weather conditions can have different effects on different types of road crashes. We quantify the combined effects of traffic volume and meteorological parameters on hourly probabilities of 78 different crash types using generalized additive models. Using tensor product bases, we model non-linear relationships and combined effects of different meteorological parameters. We evaluate the increase in relative risk of different crash types in case of precipitation, sun glare and high wind speeds. The largest effect of snow is found in case of single-truck crashes, while rain has a larger effect on single-car crashes. Sun glare increases the probability of multi-car crashes, in particular at higher speed limits and in case of rear-end crashes. High wind speeds increase the probability of single-truck crashes and, for all vehicle types, the risk of crashes with objects blown on the road. A comparison of the predictive power of models with and without meteorological variables shows an improvement of scores of up to 24%, which makes the models suitable for applications in real-time traffic management or impact-based warning systems. These could be used by authorities to issue weather-dependent driving restrictions or situation-specific on-board warnings to improve road safety.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1867-0717 , 1866-8887
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2471004-0
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2022
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 22, No. 6 ( 2022-06-23), p. 2117-2130
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 22, No. 6 ( 2022-06-23), p. 2117-2130
    Abstract: Abstract. A rockfall dataset for Germany is analysed with the objective of identifying the meteorological and hydrological (pre-)conditions that change the probability for such events in central Europe. The factors investigated in the analysis are precipitation amount and intensity, freeze–thaw cycles, and subsurface moisture. As there is no suitable observational dataset for all relevant subsurface moisture types (e.g. water in rock pores and cleft water) available, simulated soil moisture and a proxy for pore water are tested as substitutes. The potential triggering factors were analysed both for the day of the event and for the days leading up to it. A logistic regression model was built, which considers individual potential triggering factors and their interactions. It is found that the most important factor influencing rockfall probability in the research area is the precipitation amount at the day of the event, but the water content of the ground on that day and freeze–thaw cycles in the days prior to the event also influence the hazard probability. Comparing simulated soil moisture and the pore-water proxy as predictors for rockfall reveals that the proxy, calculated as accumulated precipitation minus potential evaporation, performs slightly better in the statistical model. Using the statistical model, the effects of meteorological conditions on rockfall probability in German low mountain ranges can be quantified. The model suggests that precipitation is most efficient when the pore-water content of the ground is high. An increase in daily precipitation from its local 50th percentile to its 90th percentile approximately doubles the probability for a rockfall event under median pore-water conditions. When the pore-water proxy is at its 95th percentile, the same increase in precipitation leads to a 4-fold increase in rockfall probability. The occurrence of a freeze–thaw cycle in the preceding days increases the rockfall hazard by about 50 %. The most critical combination can therefore be expected in winter and at the beginning of spring after a freeze–thaw transition, which is followed by a day with high precipitation amounts and takes place in a region preconditioned by a high level of subsurface moisture.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069216-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2064587-9
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