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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2022
    In:  Earth System Dynamics Vol. 13, No. 4 ( 2022-12-08), p. 1689-1713
    Details
    In: Earth System Dynamics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 4 ( 2022-12-08), p. 1689-1713
    Abstract: Abstract. Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific Northwest areas of the US and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths and sharp increases in emergency calls and hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate the extent to which human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heat waves in this region. Based on observations, modelling and a classical statistical approach, the occurrence of a heat wave defined as the maximum daily temperature (TXx) observed in the area 45–52∘ N, 119–123∘ W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lay far outside the range of historical temperature observations. This makes it hard to state with confidence how rare the event was. Using a statistical analysis that assumes that the heat wave is part of the same distribution as previous heat waves in this region led to a first-order estimation of the event frequency of the order of once in 1000 years under current climate conditions. Using this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, we found that such a heat wave event would be at least 150 times less common without human-induced climate change. Also, this heat wave was about 2 ∘C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850–1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 ∘C cooler than today. Looking into the future, in a world with 2 ∘C of global warming (0.8 ∘C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2190-4987
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2578793-7
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts
    IOP Publishing ; 2023
    In:  Environmental Research: Climate Vol. 2, No. 4 ( 2023-12-01), p. 045005-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research: Climate, IOP Publishing, Vol. 2, No. 4 ( 2023-12-01), p. 045005-
    Abstract: In March 2022, large parts over the north Indian plains including the breadbasket region, and southern Pakistan began experiencing prolonged heat, which continued into May. The event was exacerbated due to prevailing dry conditions in the region, resulting in devastating consequences for public health and agriculture. Using event attribution methods, we analyse the role of human-induced climate change in altering the chances of such an event. To capture the extent of the impacts, we choose March–April average of daily maximum temperature over the most affected region in India and Pakistan as the variable. In observations, the 2022 event has a return period of ∼1-in-100 years. For each of the climate models, we then calculate the change in probability and intensity of a 1-in-100 year event between the actual and counterfactual worlds for quantifying the role of climate change. We estimate that human-caused climate change made this heatwave about 1 °C hotter and 30 times more likely in the current, 2022 climate, as compared to the 1.2 °C cooler, pre-industrial climate. Under a future global warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, heatwaves like this are expected to become even more common (2–20 times more likely) and hotter (by 0 °C–1.5 °C) compared to now. Stronger and frequent heat waves in the future will impact vulnerable groups as conditions in some regions exceed limits for human survivability. Therefore, mitigation is essential for avoiding loss of lives and livelihood. Heat Action Plans have proved effective to help reduce heat-related mortality in both countries.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2752-5295
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/acf4b6
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2023
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022
    Elsevier BV ; 2024
    In:  Weather and Climate Extremes Vol. 44 ( 2024-06), p. 100671-
    Details
    In: Weather and Climate Extremes, Elsevier BV, Vol. 44 ( 2024-06), p. 100671-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2212-0947
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100671
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2024
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2732464-3
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Drought self-propagation in drylands due to land–atmosphere feedbacks
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2022
    In:  Nature Geoscience Vol. 15, No. 4 ( 2022-04), p. 262-268
    Details
    In: Nature Geoscience, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 15, No. 4 ( 2022-04), p. 262-268
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1752-0894 , 1752-0908
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41561-022-00912-7
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2396648-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2405323-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The footprint of human-induced climate change on heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022 in Switzerland
    IOP Publishing ; 2023
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 18, No. 7 ( 2023-07-01), p. 074037-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 18, No. 7 ( 2023-07-01), p. 074037-
    Abstract: Human-induced climate change is leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, which are severely affecting the health of the population. The exceptional heat during the summer of 2022 in Europe is an example, with record-breaking temperatures only below the infamous 2003 summer. High ambient temperatures are associated with many health outcomes, including premature mortality. However, there is limited quantitative evidence on the contribution of anthropogenic activities to the substantial heat-related mortality observed in recent times. Here we combined methods in climate epidemiology and attribution to quantify the heat-related mortality burden attributed to human-induced climate change in Switzerland during the summer of 2022. We first estimated heat-mortality association in each canton and age/sex population between 1990 and 2017 in a two-stage time-series analysis. We then calculated the mortality attributed to heat in the summer of 2022 using observed mortality, and compared it with the hypothetical heat-related burden that would have occurred in absence of human-induced climate change. This counterfactual scenario was derived by regressing the Swiss average temperature against global mean temperature in both observations and CMIP6 models. We estimate 623 deaths [95% empirical confidence interval (95% eCI): 151–1068] due to heat between June and August 2022, corresponding to 3.5% of all-cause mortality. More importantly, we find that 60% of this burden (370 deaths [95% eCI: 133–644] ) could have been avoided in absence of human-induced climate change. Older women were affected the most, as well as populations in western and southern Switzerland and more urbanized areas. Our findings demonstrate that human-induced climate change was a relevant driver of the exceptional excess health burden observed in the 2022 summer in Switzerland.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ace0d0
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Evaluating the land-surface energy partitioning in ERA5
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2020
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development Vol. 13, No. 9 ( 2020-09-09), p. 4159-4181
    Details
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 9 ( 2020-09-09), p. 4159-4181
    Abstract: Abstract. Climate reanalyses provide a plethora of global atmospheric and surface parameters in a consistent manner over multi-decadal timescales. Hence, they are widely used in many fields, and an in-depth evaluation of the different variables provided by reanalyses is a necessary means to provide feedback on the quality to their users and the operational centres producing these data sets, and to help guide their development. Recently, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) released the new state-of-the-art climate reanalysis ERA5, following up on its popular predecessor ERA-Interim. Different sets of variables from ERA5 were already evaluated in a handful of studies, but so far, the quality of land-surface energy partitioning has not been assessed. Here, we evaluate the surface energy partitioning over land in ERA5 and concentrate on the appraisal of the surface latent heat flux, surface sensible heat flux, and Bowen ratio against different reference data sets and using different modelling tools. Most of our analyses point towards a better quality of surface energy partitioning in ERA5 than in ERA-Interim, which may be attributed to a better representation of land-surface processes in ERA5 and certainly to the better quality of near-surface meteorological variables. One of the key shortcomings of the reanalyses identified in our study is the overestimation of the surface latent heat flux over land, which – although substantially lower than in ERA-Interim – still remains in ERA5. Overall, our results indicate the high quality of the surface turbulent fluxes from ERA5 and the general improvement upon ERA-Interim, thereby endorsing the efforts of ECMWF to improve their climate reanalysis and to provide useful data to many scientific and operational fields.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-4159-2020
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A unified framework to estimate the origins of atmospheric moisture and heat using Lagrangian models
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2022
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development Vol. 15, No. 5 ( 2022-03-07), p. 1875-1898
    Details
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 15, No. 5 ( 2022-03-07), p. 1875-1898
    Abstract: Abstract. Despite the existing myriad of tools and models to assess atmospheric source–receptor relationships, their uncertainties remain largely unexplored and arguably stem from the scarcity of observations available for validation. Yet, Lagrangian models are increasingly used to determine the origin of precipitation and atmospheric heat by scrutinizing the changes in moisture and temperature along air parcel trajectories. Here, we present a unified framework for the process-based evaluation of atmospheric trajectories to infer source–receptor relationships of both moisture and heat. The framework comprises three steps: (i) diagnosing precipitation, surface evaporation, and sensible heat from the Lagrangian simulations and identifying the accuracy and reliability of flux detection criteria; (ii) establishing source–receptor relationships through the attribution of sources along multi-day backward trajectories; and (iii) performing a bias correction of source–receptor relationships. Applying this framework to simulations from the Lagrangian model FLEXPART, driven with ERA-Interim reanalysis data, allows us to quantify the errors and uncertainties associated with the resulting source–receptor relationships for three cities in different climates (Beijing, Denver, and Windhoek). Our results reveal large uncertainties inherent in the estimation of heat and precipitation origin with Lagrangian models, but they also demonstrate that a source and sink bias correction acts to reduce this uncertainty. The proposed framework paves the way for a cohesive assessment of the dependencies in source–receptor relationships.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-1875-2022
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-1875-2022-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Atmospheric heat and moisture transport to energy‐ and water‐limited ecosystems
    Wiley ; 2020
    In:  Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences Vol. 1472, No. 1 ( 2020-07), p. 123-138
    Details
    In: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Wiley, Vol. 1472, No. 1 ( 2020-07), p. 123-138
    Abstract: The land biosphere is a crucial component of the Earth system that interacts with the atmosphere in a complex manner through manifold feedback processes. These relationships are bidirectional, as climate affects our terrestrial ecosystems, which, in turn, influence climate. Great progress has been made in understanding the local interactions between the terrestrial biosphere and climate, but influences from remote regions through energy and water influxes to downwind ecosystems remain less explored. Using a Lagrangian trajectory model driven by atmospheric reanalysis data, we show how heat and moisture advection affect gross carbon production at interannual scales and in different ecoregions across the globe. For water‐limited regions, results show a detrimental effect on ecosystem productivity during periods of enhanced heat and reduced moisture advection. These periods are typically associated with winds that disproportionately come from continental source regions, as well as positive sensible heat flux and negative latent heat flux anomalies in those upwind locations. Our results underline the vulnerability of ecosystems to the occurrence of upwind climatic extremes and highlight the importance of the latter for the spatiotemporal propagation of ecosystem disturbances.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0077-8923 , 1749-6632
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1111/nyas.v1472.1
    DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14357
    RVK:
    TD 7650
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2834079-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 211003-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2071584-5
    SSG: 11
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Author Correction: Analyses of non-coding somatic drivers in 2,658 cancer whole genomes
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2023
    In:  Nature
    Details
    In: Nature, Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0028-0836 , 1476-4687
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05599-9
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    UA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 120714-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1413423-8
    SSG: 11
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Analyses of non-coding somatic drivers in 2,658 cancer whole genomes
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2020
    In:  Nature Vol. 578, No. 7793 ( 2020-02-06), p. 102-111
    Details
    In: Nature, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 578, No. 7793 ( 2020-02-06), p. 102-111
    Abstract: The discovery of drivers of cancer has traditionally focused on protein-coding genes 1–4 . Here we present analyses of driver point mutations and structural variants in non-coding regions across 2,658 genomes from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium 5 of the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). For point mutations, we developed a statistically rigorous strategy for combining significance levels from multiple methods of driver discovery that overcomes the limitations of individual methods. For structural variants, we present two methods of driver discovery, and identify regions that are significantly affected by recurrent breakpoints and recurrent somatic juxtapositions. Our analyses confirm previously reported drivers 6,7 , raise doubts about others and identify novel candidates, including point mutations in the 5′ region of TP53 , in the 3′ untranslated regions of NFKBIZ and TOB1 , focal deletions in BRD4 and rearrangements in the loci of AKR1C genes. We show that although point mutations and structural variants that drive cancer are less frequent in non-coding genes and regulatory sequences than in protein-coding genes, additional examples of these drivers will be found as more cancer genomes become available.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0028-0836 , 1476-4687
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-1965-x
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    UA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 120714-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1413423-8
    SSG: 11
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