In:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 117, No. 42 ( 2020-10-20), p. 26151-26157
Kurzfassung:
Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.
Materialart:
Online-Ressource
ISSN:
0027-8424
,
1091-6490
DOI:
10.1073/pnas.2012002117
Sprache:
Englisch
Verlag:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publikationsdatum:
2020
ZDB Id:
209104-5
ZDB Id:
1461794-8
SSG:
11
SSG:
12
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