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  • 1
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 22, No. 7 ( 2022-04-12), p. 4779-4799
    Abstract: Abstract. We analyze Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) monthly zonal mean time series of ClO and HOCl between 50∘ S and 50∘ N to estimate upper stratospheric trends in these chlorine species from 2005 through 2020. We compare these observations to those from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6), run under the specified dynamics configuration. The model sampling follows the MLS coverage in space and local time. We use version 5 MLS ClO zonal mean daytime profiles and similarly binned daytime ClO model profiles from 32 to 1.5 hPa. For MLS HOCl, we use the version 5 offline product derived from daily zonal mean radiances rather than averaged level-2 profiles; MLS HOCl is scientifically useful between 10 and 2 hPa, and the HOCl monthly zonal means are separated into day and night for comparison to WACCM6. We find good agreement (mostly within ∼ 10 %) between the climatological MLS ClO daytime distributions and the model ClO climatology for 2005–2020. The model HOCl climatology, however, underestimates the MLS HOCl climatology by about 30 %. This could well be caused by a combination of fairly large systematic uncertainties in both the model-assumed rate constant for the formation of HOCl and the MLS HOCl retrievals themselves. The model daytime ClO trends versus latitude and pressure agree quite well with those from MLS. MLS-derived near-global upper stratospheric daytime trends between 7 and 2 hPa are −0.73 ± 0.40 % yr−1 for ClO and −0.39 ± 0.35 % yr−1 for HOCl, with 2σ uncertainty estimates used here. The corresponding model decreases are somewhat faster than observed (although the difference is not statistically significant), with trend values of −0.85 ± 0.45 % yr−1 for ClO and −0.64 ± 0.37 % yr−1 for HOCl. Both data and model results point to a faster trend in ClO than in HOCl. The MLS ClO trends are consistent with past estimates of upper stratospheric ClO trends from satellite and ground-based microwave data. As discussed in the past, trends in other species (in particular, positive trends in CH4 and H2O) can lead to a ClO decrease that is faster than the decrease in total inorganic chlorine. Regarding trends in HOCl, positive trends in HO2 can lead to a faster rate of formation for HOCl as a function of time, which partially offsets the decreasing trend in active chlorine. The decreasing trends in upper stratospheric ClO and HOCl provide additional confirmation of the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, which have led to the early stages of an expected long-term ozone recovery from the effects of ozone-depleting substances.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 2
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 48, No. 7 ( 2021-04-16)
    Abstract: The 2019–2020 Australian wildfire injected about 0.9 Tg smoke containing 2.5% black carbon into the stratosphere Climate model simulations indicate that the smoke warmed the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere by 1 K for more than 6 months Model calculations estimate a decrease in ozone of 10–20 Dobson units from August to December at mid‐high southern latitudes
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Communications Earth & Environment Vol. 2, No. 1 ( 2021-01-22)
    In: Communications Earth & Environment, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 2, No. 1 ( 2021-01-22)
    Abstract: The climate impacts of smoke from fires ignited by nuclear war would include global cooling and crop failure. Facing increased reliance on ocean-based food sources, it is critical to understand the physical and biological state of the post-war oceans. Here we use an Earth system model to simulate six nuclear war scenarios. We show that global cooling can generate a large, sustained response in the equatorial Pacific, resembling an El Niño but persisting for up to seven years. The El Niño following nuclear war, or Nuclear Niño, would be characterized by westerly trade wind anomalies and a shutdown of equatorial Pacific upwelling, caused primarily by cooling of the Maritime Continent and tropical Africa. Reduced incident sunlight and ocean circulation changes would cause a 40% reduction in equatorial Pacific phytoplankton productivity. These results indicate nuclear war could trigger extreme climate change and compromise food security beyond the impacts of crop failure.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2662-4435
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3037243-4
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2023
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 23, No. 12 ( 2023-06-19), p. 6691-6701
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 23, No. 12 ( 2023-06-19), p. 6691-6701
    Abstract: Abstract. The direct effects of nuclear war would be horrific, with blasts, fires, and radiation killing and injuring many people. But in 1983, United States and Soviet Union scientists showed that a nuclear war could also produce a nuclear winter, with catastrophic consequences for global food supplies for people far removed from the conflict. Smoke from fires ignited by nuclear weapons exploded on cities and industrial targets would block out sunlight, causing dark, cold, and dry surface conditions, producing a nuclear winter, with surface temperatures below freezing even in summer for years. Nuclear winter theory helped to end the nuclear arms race in the 1980s and helped to produce the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in 2017, for which the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons received the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize. Because awareness of nuclear winter is now widespread, nuclear nations have so far not used nuclear weapons. But the mere existence of nuclear weapons means that they can be used, by unstable leaders, accidently from technical malfunctions, such as in computers and sensors, due to human error, or by terrorists. Because they cannot be used without the danger of escalation (resulting in a global humanitarian catastrophe), because of recent threats to use them by Russia, and because nuclear deterrence doctrines of all nuclear-armed states are based on the capability and readiness to use nuclear weapons, it is even more urgent for scientists to study these issues, to broadly communicate their results, and to work for the elimination of nuclear weapons.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 5
    In: Nature Communications, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 11, No. 1 ( 2020-09-10)
    Abstract: Volcanic ash is often neglected in climate simulations because ash particles are assumed to have a short atmospheric lifetime, and to not participate in sulfur chemistry. After the Mt. Kelut eruption in 2014, stratospheric ash-rich aerosols were observed for months. Here we show that the persistence of super-micron ash is consistent with a density near 0.5 g cm −3 , close to pumice. Ash-rich particles dominate the volcanic cloud optical properties for the first 60 days. We also find that the initial SO 2 lifetime is determined by SO 2 uptake on ash, rather than by reaction with OH as commonly assumed. About 43% more volcanic sulfur is removed from the stratosphere in 2 months with the SO 2 heterogeneous chemistry on ash particles than without. This research suggests the need for re-evaluation of factors controlling SO 2 lifetime in climate model simulations, and of the impact of volcanic ash on stratospheric chemistry and radiation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2041-1723
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2553671-0
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2021
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 126, No. 13 ( 2021-07-16)
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 126, No. 13 ( 2021-07-16)
    Abstract: The composition of smoke in the mesosphere is consistent with iron‐rich olivine Global ablated meteoric influx is estimated to be 7.3 ± 2.2 metric tons/day, with a total influx of 24.7 ± 7.3 tons/day Hemispheric asymmetries in smoke and H 2 O are consistent with stronger winter descent in the Northern polar mesosphere relative to the South
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-897X , 2169-8996
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 7
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 127, No. 16 ( 2022-08-27)
    Abstract: Ice concentrations several orders of magnitude higher than ice nucleating particle concentrations were observed Secondary ice production was believed to be responsible for the observed high ice number concentrations Comparison with climate model indicated that secondary ice processes are still inadequately represented in the model
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-897X , 2169-8996
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2021
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 126, No. 8 ( 2021-04-27)
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 126, No. 8 ( 2021-04-27)
    Abstract: Summertime Southern Ocean free tropospheric aerosol number is dominated by Aitken particles recently generated through synoptic uplift Entrained Aitken aerosols buffer Southern Ocean boundary layer cloud condensation nuclei and cloud droplets against precipitation removal Southern Ocean cloud droplet number is too low in the CAM6 climate model due to inadequate free tropospheric production of Aitken aerosols
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-897X , 2169-8996
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2020
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 117, No. 13 ( 2020-03-31), p. 7071-7081
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 117, No. 13 ( 2020-03-31), p. 7071-7081
    Abstract: A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 ( ± 1)%, 11 ( ± 8)%, 3 ( ± 5)%, and 17 ( ± 2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 ( ± 4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using 〈 1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    RVK:
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2020
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2021
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 118, No. 29 ( 2021-07-20)
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 118, No. 29 ( 2021-07-20)
    Abstract: The Toba eruption ∼74,000 y ago was the largest volcanic eruption since the start of the Pleistocene and represents an important test case for understanding the effects of large explosive eruptions on climate and ecosystems. However, the magnitude and repercussions of climatic changes driven by the eruption are strongly debated. High-resolution paleoclimate and archaeological records from Africa find little evidence for the disruption of climate or human activity in the wake of the eruption in contrast with a controversial link with a bottleneck in human evolution and climate model simulations predicting strong volcanic cooling for up to a decade after a Toba-scale eruption. Here, we use a large ensemble of high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM1.3) simulations to reconcile climate model predictions with paleoclimate records, accounting for uncertainties in the magnitude of Toba sulfur emissions with high and low emission scenarios. We find a near-zero probability of annual mean surface temperature anomalies exceeding 4 °C in most of Africa in contrast with near 100% probabilities of cooling this severe in Asia and North America for the high sulfur emission case. The likelihood of strong decreases in precipitation is low in most of Africa. Therefore, even Toba sulfur release at the upper range of plausible estimates remains consistent with the muted response in Africa indicated by paleoclimate proxies. Our results provide a probabilistic view of the uneven patterns of volcanic climate disruption during a crucial interval in human evolution, with implications for understanding the range of environmental impacts from past and future supereruptions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    RVK:
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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