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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2023
    In:  npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Vol. 6, No. 1 ( 2023-03-25)
    In: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 6, No. 1 ( 2023-03-25)
    Abstract: Accurate representation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in global climate models is crucial for reliable future climate predictions and projections. In this study, we used 42 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models to analyze low-frequency variability of the AMOC driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our results showed that the influence of the simulated NAO on the AMOC differs significantly between the models. We showed that the large intermodel diversity originates from the diverse oceanic mean state, especially over the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA), where deep water formation of the AMOC occurs. For some models, the climatological sea ice extent covers a wide area of the SPNA and restrains efficient air–sea interactions, making the AMOC less sensitive to the NAO. In the models without the sea-ice-covered SPNA, the upper-ocean mean stratification critically affects the relationship between the NAO and AMOC by regulating the AMOC sensitivity to surface buoyancy forcing. Our results pinpoint the oceanic mean state as an aspect of climate model simulations that must be improved for an accurate understanding of the AMOC.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2397-3722
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2925628-8
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  • 12
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2022
    In:  npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Vol. 5, No. 1 ( 2022-02-11)
    In: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 5, No. 1 ( 2022-02-11)
    Abstract: Paleo-proxy records suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits a threshold for an abrupt change, a so-called tipping point. A classical bifurcation theory, a basis of the tipping dynamics of AMOC implicitly assumes that the tipping point is fixed. However, when a system is subjected to time-varying forcing (e.g., AMOC exposed to ice meltwater) an actual tipping point can be overshot due to delayed tipping, referred to as the slow passage effect. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity and a low-order model with freshwater forcing, we show that the tipping point of AMOC is largely delayed by the slow passage effect. It causes a large tipping lag of up to 1300 years, and strongly relaxes the abruptness of tipping as well. We further demonstrate that the tipping modulation can actively occur in past, present, and future climates by quantifying the effect during Dansgaard-Oeschger events, meltwater pulse 1A (MWP-1A), and current Greenland ice sheet melting. The suggested slow passage effect may explain the observed lagged AMOC collapse to MWP-1A of about 1000 years and provides implications tipping risk in the future.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2397-3722
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2925628-8
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  • 13
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2022
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 35, No. 20 ( 2022-10-15), p. 3141-3156
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 35, No. 20 ( 2022-10-15), p. 3141-3156
    Abstract: This study investigates the growth mechanisms of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), one of the primary causes of winter temperature extremes at midlatitudes. We find that the NPO has two distinct origins. One is the Rossby wave propagating across Eurasia that strengthens during cold or warm surges over East Asia. The corresponding vorticity and thermal anomalies grow into the NPO as they move eastward. The other is a local disturbance at the Asian Pacific jet stream exit that amplifies when propagating westward. The dynamical processes behind these two types of NPO growth are investigated by conducting quasigeostrophic geopotential tendency budget analysis, focusing on the relative importance of the vorticity flux and differential heat flux. It is revealed that the contribution of high-frequency eddies is greater in the NPO that grows from a local disturbance. However, NPO growth in both cases is primarily steered by low-frequency vorticity flux, which facilitates eastward or westward propagation through relative or planetary vorticity advections, respectively. Differential heat flux promotes the growth of the NPO before the onset, but dissipates the NPO anomalies afterward. The net effect of the heat flux, however, allows the NPO to amplify and persist through baroclinic instability by constraining the NPO anomalies to have westward vertical tilt. Accordingly, the NPO grows conforming to the dissipative destabilizing mechanism. From the perspective of potential vorticity (PV), the eastward growth of the NPO originates from the downstream advection of PV anomalies accumulated over East Asia, while westward growth is favored by a strong PV gradient near the jet stream. Significance Statement This study examines the origins and growth mechanism of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), which causes cold or warm spells in the midlatitudes during winter. Two distinct origins of the NPO are found, which are abnormal temperature events over East Asia and local atmospheric disturbances at the Asian Pacific jet stream exit. Evolutions of the NPO are traced by analyzing the roles of the vorticity and heat fluxes in addition to the contributions of synoptic eddies, which turns out to be more significant for the NPO that grows from a local disturbance. Vorticity flux overall dominates the growth of the NPO, but heat flux also helps the NPO amplify owing to background instability.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 14
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2023
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 36, No. 13 ( 2023-07-01), p. 4475-4490
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 36, No. 13 ( 2023-07-01), p. 4475-4490
    Abstract: The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) exhibits pronounced seasonality, with one of the key unanswered questions being the following: what controls the maximum in MJO precipitation variance in the Southern Hemisphere during boreal winter? In this study, we examine a set of global climate model simulations in which the eccentricity and precession of Earth’s orbit are altered to change the boreal winter mean state in an attempt to reveal the processes that are responsible for the MJO’s amplitude in the boreal winter. In response to the forced insolation changes, the north–south asymmetry in sea surface temperature is amplified in boreal fall, which intensifies the Hadley circulation in boreal winter. The stronger Hadley circulation yields higher mean precipitation and stronger mean lower-tropospheric westerlies in the southern part of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. The MJO precipitation variability increases significantly where the mean precipitation and lower-tropospheric westerlies strengthen. In the column-integrated moisture budget of the simulated MJO, only surface latent heat flux feedback shows a trend that is consistent with the MJO’s amplitude, suggesting an important role for the surface latent heat flux feedback in the MJO’s amplitude during the boreal winter. An analysis of the moisture–precipitation relationship in the simulations shows that the increase in the mean precipitation lowers the convective moisture adjustment time scale, leading to the increase in precipitation variance. Our results suggest that the mean-state precipitation plays a critical role in the maintenance mechanism of the MJO.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 15
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2021
    In:  Journal of Climate ( 2021-03-26), p. 1-36
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, ( 2021-03-26), p. 1-36
    Abstract: Paleo proxy records indicate that abrupt changes in thermohaline circulation (THC) were induced by rapid meltwater discharge from retreating ice sheets. Such abrupt changes in the THC have been understood as a hysteresis behavior of nonlinear system. Previous studies, however, primarily focused on a near-static hysteresis under fixed or slowly varying freshwater forcing (FWF), reflecting the equilibrated response of the THC. This study aims to improve the current understanding of transient THC responses under rapidly varying forcing and its dependency on forcing timescales. The results simulated by an Earth system model suggest that the bifurcation is delayed as the forcing timescale is shorter, causing the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation collapse (recovery) to occur at higher (lower) FWF values. The delayed shutdown/recovery occurs because bifurcation is determined not by the FWF value at the time but by the total amount of freshwater remaining over the THC convection region. The remaining freshwater amount is primarily determined by the forcing accumulation (i.e., time-integrated FWF), which is modulated by the freshwater/salt advection by ocean circulations and freshwater flux by the atmospheric hydrological cycle. In general, the latter is overwhelmed by the former. When the forced freshwater amount is the same, the modulation effect is stronger under slowly varying forcing because more time is provided for the feedback processes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 16
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2022
    In:  Nature Climate Change Vol. 12, No. 1 ( 2022-01), p. 47-53
    In: Nature Climate Change, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 12, No. 1 ( 2022-01), p. 47-53
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1758-678X , 1758-6798
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2603450-5
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  • 17
    In: Earth's Future, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 9, No. 7 ( 2021-07)
    Abstract: In CO 2 removal experiment, change of global mean surface temperature was halted for 40 years during the early net‐zero CO 2 emission period Cooling hiatus was driven by an excessive heat advection by a delayed and surpassed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to CO 2 forcing AMOC overshoot is due to the salt advection feedback, amplified by enhanced salinity gradient and reduced oceanic stratification
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2328-4277 , 2328-4277
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2746403-9
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  • 18
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Elsevier BV ; 2022
    In:  Weather and Climate Extremes Vol. 37 ( 2022-09), p. 100489-
    In: Weather and Climate Extremes, Elsevier BV, Vol. 37 ( 2022-09), p. 100489-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2212-0947
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2732464-3
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  • 19
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Elsevier BV ; 2022
    In:  Science Bulletin Vol. 67, No. 2 ( 2022-01), p. 213-222
    In: Science Bulletin, Elsevier BV, Vol. 67, No. 2 ( 2022-01), p. 213-222
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2095-9273
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069521-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2816140-3
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  • 20
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2022
    In:  Earth's Future Vol. 10, No. 8 ( 2022-08)
    In: Earth's Future, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 10, No. 8 ( 2022-08)
    Abstract: The carbon dioxide removal ensemble simulation shows that the Arctic climate changes exhibit the largest ensemble spread, suggesting the most uncertain region The initial buoyancy condition of the Arctic Ocean has a centennial memory for the future recovery of Arctic temperature The denser Arctic Ocean is linked to faster recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and Arctic temperature, with strong AMOC‐salt‐advection feedback
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2328-4277 , 2328-4277
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2746403-9
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