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  • 1
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 49, No. 16 ( 2022-08-28)
    Abstract: A physics‐guided machine learning (ML) model for particle number concentration (PNC) couples with a global climate model with low computational overhead ML PNC are in better agreement with measurements and reduce cloud droplet number concentration changes caused by anthropogenic emissions Radiative forcing due to aerosol‐cloud interactions indicates weaker cooling (−1.11 vs. −1.46 W·m −2 ) and is closer to IPCC median value
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2020
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development Vol. 13, No. 7 ( 2020-07-10), p. 3091-3118
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 7 ( 2020-07-10), p. 3091-3118
    Abstract: Abstract. Fires affect the composition of the atmosphere and Earth's radiation balance by emitting a suite of reactive gases and particles. An interactive fire module in an Earth system model (ESM) allows us to study the natural and anthropogenic drivers, feedbacks, and interactions of open fires. To do so, we have developed pyrE, the NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) interactive fire emissions module. The pyrE module is driven by environmental variables like flammability and cloud-to-ground lightning, calculated by the GISS ModelE ESM, and parameterized by anthropogenic impacts based on population density data. Fire emissions are generated from the flaming phase in pyrE (active fires). Using pyrE, we examine fire occurrence, regional fire suppression, burned area, fire emissions, and how it all affects atmospheric composition. To do so, we evaluate pyrE by comparing it to satellite-based datasets of fire count, burned area, fire emissions, and aerosol optical depth (AOD). We demonstrate pyrE's ability to simulate the daily and seasonal cycles of open fires and resulting emissions. Our results indicate that interactive fire emissions are biased low by 32 %–42 %, depending on emitted species, compared to the GFED4s (Global Fire Emissions Database) inventory. The bias in emissions drives underestimation in column densities, which is diluted by natural and anthropogenic emissions sources and production and loss mechanisms. Regionally, the resulting AOD of a simulation with interactive fire emissions is underestimated mostly over Indonesia compared to a simulation with GFED4s emissions and to MODIS AOD. In other parts of the world pyrE's performance in terms of AOD is marginal to a simulation with prescribed fire emissions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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  • 3
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 23 ( 2020-11-30), p. 14547-14579
    Abstract: Abstract. Poor air quality is currently responsible for large impacts on human health across the world. In addition, the air pollutants ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) are also radiatively active in the atmosphere and can influence Earth's climate. It is important to understand the effect of air quality and climate mitigation measures over the historical period and in different future scenarios to ascertain any impacts from air pollutants on both climate and human health. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) presents an opportunity to analyse the change in air pollutants simulated by the current generation of climate and Earth system models that include a representation of chemistry and aerosols (particulate matter). The shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) used within CMIP6 encompass a wide range of trajectories in precursor emissions and climate change, allowing for an improved analysis of future changes to air pollutants. Firstly, we conduct an evaluation of the available CMIP6 models against surface observations of O3 and PM2.5. CMIP6 models consistently overestimate observed surface O3 concentrations across most regions and in most seasons by up to 16 ppb, with a large diversity in simulated values over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Conversely, observed surface PM2.5 concentrations are consistently underestimated in CMIP6 models by up to 10 µg m−3, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere winter months, with the largest model diversity near natural emission source regions. The biases in CMIP6 models when compared to observations of O3 and PM2.5 are similar to those found in previous studies. Over the historical period (1850–2014) large increases in both surface O3 and PM2.5 are simulated by the CMIP6 models across all regions, particularly over the mid to late 20th century, when anthropogenic emissions increase markedly. Large regional historical changes are simulated for both pollutants across East and South Asia with an annual mean increase of up to 40 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. In future scenarios containing strong air quality and climate mitigation measures (ssp126), annual mean concentrations of air pollutants are substantially reduced across all regions by up to 15 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. However, for scenarios that encompass weak action on mitigating climate and reducing air pollutant emissions (ssp370), annual mean increases in both surface O3 (up 10 ppb) and PM2.5 (up to 8 µg m−3) are simulated across most regions, although, for regions like North America and Europe small reductions in PM2.5 are simulated due to the regional reduction in precursor emissions in this scenario. A comparison of simulated regional changes in both surface O3 and PM2.5 from individual CMIP6 models highlights important regional differences due to the simulated interaction of aerosols, chemistry, climate and natural emission sources within models. The projection of regional air pollutant concentrations from the latest climate and Earth system models used within CMIP6 shows that the particular future trajectory of climate and air quality mitigation measures could have important consequences for regional air quality, human health and near-term climate. Differences between individual models emphasise the importance of understanding how future Earth system feedbacks influence natural emission sources, e.g. response of biogenic emissions under climate change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 4
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 23, No. 1 ( 2023-01-16), p. 637-661
    Abstract: Abstract. As the third most important greenhouse gas (GHG) after carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), tropospheric ozone (O3) is also an air pollutant causing damage to human health and ecosystems. This study brings together recent research on observations and modeling of tropospheric O3 in the Arctic, a rapidly warming and sensitive environment. At different locations in the Arctic, the observed surface O3 seasonal cycles are quite different. Coastal Arctic locations, for example, have a minimum in the springtime due to O3 depletion events resulting from surface bromine chemistry. In contrast, other Arctic locations have a maximum in the spring. The 12 state-of-the-art models used in this study lack the surface halogen chemistry needed to simulate coastal Arctic surface O3 depletion in the springtime; however, the multi-model median (MMM) has accurate seasonal cycles at non-coastal Arctic locations. There is a large amount of variability among models, which has been previously reported, and we show that there continues to be no convergence among models or improved accuracy in simulating tropospheric O3 and its precursor species. The MMM underestimates Arctic surface O3 by 5 % to 15 % depending on the location. The vertical distribution of tropospheric O3 is studied from recent ozonesonde measurements and the models. The models are highly variable, simulating free-tropospheric O3 within a range of ±50 % depending on the model and the altitude. The MMM performs best, within ±8 % for most locations and seasons. However, nearly all models overestimate O3 near the tropopause (∼300 hPa or ∼8 km), likely due to ongoing issues with underestimating the altitude of the tropopause and excessive downward transport of stratospheric O3 at high latitudes. For example, the MMM is biased high by about 20 % at Eureka. Observed and simulated O3 precursors (CO, NOx, and reservoir PAN) are evaluated throughout the troposphere. Models underestimate wintertime CO everywhere, likely due to a combination of underestimating CO emissions and possibly overestimating OH. Throughout the vertical profile (compared to aircraft measurements), the MMM underestimates both CO and NOx but overestimates PAN. Perhaps as a result of competing deficiencies, the MMM O3 matches the observed O3 reasonably well. Our findings suggest that despite model updates over the last decade, model results are as highly variable as ever and have not increased in accuracy for representing Arctic tropospheric O3.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 5
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 127, No. 16 ( 2022-08-27)
    Abstract: New multi‐model results show significant positive effects of ozone precursors on near‐global ozone offsetting the negative effects of ozone‐depleting substances (ODSs) ODS and greenhouse gases dominate stratospheric ozone changes but with large inter‐model differences due to uncertainties in responses to ODS changes Increases in carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide significantly impact stratospheric ozone, but their net effects on total columns are small due to cancellations
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-897X , 2169-8996
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2021
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets Vol. 126, No. 7 ( 2021-07)
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 126, No. 7 ( 2021-07)
    Abstract: A H 2 ‐CO 2 Greenhouse can warm early Mars above the freezing point of water Low obliquity is more conducive to rainfall over locations with valley network formations Fully coupled dynamic oceans in the northern hemisphere or Hellas basin do not significantly alter the ancient climate
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-9097 , 2169-9100
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1086497-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094268-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016810-X
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 7
    In: Earth's Future, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 11, No. 5 ( 2023-05)
    Abstract: If COVID‐19 had emerged in a different decade, atmospheric impacts would have differed, sometimes by an order of magnitude The season in which emission reductions occur can influence atmospheric composition as much as the reductions themselves Impacts on climate were largely negligible and appeared unrelated to changes in local atmospheric composition
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2328-4277 , 2328-4277
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2746403-9
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  • 8
    In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 12, No. 8 ( 2020-08)
    Abstract: A discussion is presented of the AMIP aerosol simulations for the years 1850 to 2014 of the GISS ModelE2.1 for CMIP6, using two different aerosol schemes The detailed treatment of aerosol microphysical processes greatly impacts aerosol forcing and forcing trends One model suggests that Earth has already exceeded the maximum negative forcing effects of anthropogenic aerosol in the 1980s
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1942-2466 , 1942-2466
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2462132-8
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  • 9
    In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 12, No. 8 ( 2020-08)
    Abstract: GISS‐E2.1 is an updated climate model version for use within the CMIP6 project Atmospheric composition is calculated consistently in all model versions Results demonstrate a significant improvement in skill in a climate model without changes to atmospheric resolution
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1942-2466 , 1942-2466
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2462132-8
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  • 10
    In: The Planetary Science Journal, American Astronomical Society, Vol. 3, No. 9 ( 2022-09-01), p. 213-
    Abstract: The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) is a community project that aims to quantify how differences in general circulation models (GCMs) could impact the climate prediction for TRAPPIST-1e and, subsequently, its atmospheric characterization in transit. Four GCMs have participated in THAI: ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D, and the UM. This paper, focused on the simulated observations, is the third part of a trilogy, following the analysis of two land planet scenarios (Part I) and two aquaplanet scenarios (Part II). Here we show a robust agreement between the simulated spectra and the number of transits estimated to detect the land planet atmospheres. For the cloudy aquaplanet ones, a 5 σ detection of CO 2 could be achieved in about 10 transits if the atmosphere contains at least 1 bar of CO 2 . That number can vary by 41%–56% depending on the GCM used to predict the terminator profiles, principally due to differences in the cloud deck altitude, with ExoCAM and LMD-G producing higher clouds than ROCKE-3D and UM. Therefore, for the first time, this work provides “GCM uncertainty error bars” of ∼50% that need to be considered in future analyses of transmission spectra. We also analyzed the intertransit spectral variability. Its magnitude differs significantly between the GCMs, but its impact on the transmission spectra is within the measurement uncertainties. THAI has demonstrated the importance of model intercomparison for exoplanets and also paved the way for a larger project to develop an intercomparison meta-framework, namely, the Climates Using Interactive Suites of Intercomparisons Nested for Exoplanet Studies.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2632-3338
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Astronomical Society
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3021068-9
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