In:
Ambio, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 51, No. 2 ( 2022-02), p. 456-470
Abstract:
Projecting the consequences of warming and sea-ice loss for Arctic marine food web and fisheries is challenging due to the intricate relationships between biology and ice. We used StrathE2EPolar, an end-to-end (microbes-to-megafauna) food web model incorporating ice-dependencies to simulate climate-fisheries interactions in the Barents Sea. The model was driven by output from the NEMO-MEDUSA earth system model, assuming RCP 8.5 atmospheric forcing. The Barents Sea was projected to be 〉 95% ice-free all year-round by the 2040s compared to 〉 50% in the 2010s, and approximately 2 °C warmer. Fisheries management reference points ( F MSY and B MSY ) for demersal fish (cod, haddock) were projected to increase by around 6%, indicating higher productivity. However, planktivorous fish (capelin, herring) reference points were projected to decrease by 15%, and upper trophic levels (birds, mammals) were strongly sensitive to planktivorous fish harvesting. The results indicate difficult trade-offs ahead, between harvesting and conservation of ecosystem structure and function.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0044-7447
,
1654-7209
DOI:
10.1007/s13280-021-01616-9
Language:
English
Publisher:
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Publication Date:
2022
detail.hit.zdb_id:
120759-3
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2040524-8
SSG:
23
SSG:
12
Permalink
