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  • BMJ  (15)
  • 2020-2024  (15)
  • 1
    In: BMJ Health & Care Informatics, BMJ, Vol. 28, No. 1 ( 2021-05), p. e100248-
    Abstract: We describe a hospital’s implementation of predictive models to optimise emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods We were tasked to construct and evaluate COVID-19 driven predictive models to identify possible planning and resource utilisation scenarios. We used system dynamics to derive a series of chain susceptible, infected and recovered (SIR) models. We then built a discrete event simulation using the system dynamics output and bootstrapped electronic medical record data to approximate the weekly effect of tuning surgical volume on hospital census. We evaluated performance via a model fit assessment and cross-model comparison. Results We outlined the design and implementation of predictive models to support management decision making around areas impacted by COVID-19. The fit assessments indicated the models were most useful after 30 days from onset of local cases. We found our subreports were most accurate up to 7 days after model run. Discusssion Our model allowed us to shape our health system’s executive policy response to implement a ‘hospital within a hospital’—one for patients with COVID-19 within a hospital able to care for the regular non-COVID-19 population. The surgical schedule is modified according to models that predict the number of new patients with Covid-19 who require admission. This enabled our hospital to coordinate resources to continue to support the community at large. Challenges included the need to frequently adjust or create new models to meet rapidly evolving requirements, communication, and adoption, and to coordinate the needs of multiple stakeholders. The model we created can be adapted to other health systems, provide a mechanism to predict local peaks in cases and inform hospital leadership regarding bed allocation, surgical volumes, staffing, and supplies one for COVID-19 patients within a hospital able to care for the regular non-COVID-19 population. Conclusion Predictive models are essential tools in supporting decision making when coordinating clinical operations during a pandemic.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2632-1009
    Language: English
    Publisher: BMJ
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3003028-6
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  • 2
    In: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases, BMJ, Vol. 81, No. Suppl 1 ( 2022-06), p. 1279.1-1279
    Abstract: Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is twice as likely to recur in immunosuppressed (IS) patients as in immunocompetent (IC) patients. Iatrogenic IS due to autoimmune disease (AD) may influence prognosis differently than intrinsic IS such as due to hematologic malignancy. Moreover, modification of IS medication may improve prognosis. Objectives Our objective was to evaluate the risk of MCC recurrence among patients with AD diseases relative to other immunosuppressive conditions among 762 MCC patients from an Institutional review board-approved registry. Methods We categorized patients into 3 groups: IS due to AD (IS AD ); IS from other causes (lS non-AD ) such as hematologic malignancy, solid organ transplant, human immunodeficiency virus; or immune competent (n=31, 70, and 661 respectively). IS AD patients were subcategorized into rheumatoid arthritis (RA) (AD RA , n=13) vs. AD except for RA (AD non-RA , n=18). Descriptive statistics were used to compare the features of different characteristics in each group. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed to assess the cumulative incidence of recurrence in different patient groups. In order to estimate the associations between baseline patient characteristics and the risk of MCC recurrence, Fine and Gray regression models were used with death as a competing risk for recurrence. The multivariable models adjusted for age, sex, and extent of MCC at initial presentation. Results Patients with IS AD had lower stage disease (local disease: 58% vs. 36%, p = 0.003) and smaller primary tumors than IS non-AD ( 〈 = 2 cm: 83% vs. 57%, p=0.023). After adjusting for age, sex, and stage, IS AD patients (AD RA and AD non-RA ) overall had a 54% higher recurrence rate (hazard ratio (HR): 1.54, p=0.21) than IC patients. In comparison, IS non-AD group had a 165% higher recurrence rate (HR: 2.65, p 〈 0.001) than IC patients (Figure 1). When considered separately, AD RA pts appeared to have a similar recurrence rate as IC pts (HR: 1.19, p=0.76) while AD non-RA pts had a higher recurrence rate (HR: 1.83, p=0.16) relative to IC pts. At the time of MCC diagnosis, 80% (n=24) of AD pts were on IS medication including conventional disease modifying drugs, biologics, or oral steroids. After MCC diagnosis, 22% (5 patients) stopped all immunosuppressive medications. Among patients on biologics, 89% (8/9 pts) elected to stop the drug. Eleven pts with AD experienced recurrences. Our study was underpowered to demonstrate associations regarding use of a particular immunosuppressive medication and MCC recurrence. Figure 1. Cumulative incidence of Merkel cell carcinoma recurrence in different patient groups. AD = autoimmune disease; IS = immunosuppressed; RA = rheumatoid arthritis.There were 4/13, 8/18, 49/70, and 217/661 recurrences in the RA, AD non-RA , other immunosuppressed, and not chronically immunosuppressed groups, respectively. Follow-up time ranged from 26 days to 16 years, with median follow-up times of 4.7 years, 1.6 years, 1.6 years, and 3.9 years for the RA, AD non-RA , other immunosuppressed and not chronically immunosuppressed groups, respectively. Conclusion In this cohort, pts with AD appeared to have a better prognosis than intrinsic IS, with RA conferring very little risk above that for immune competent pts. Acknowledgements I have no acknowledgements to declare. Disclosure of Interests None declared
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-4967 , 1468-2060
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: BMJ
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1481557-6
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  • 3
    In: Open Heart, BMJ, Vol. 8, No. 2 ( 2021-12), p. e001853-
    Abstract: To assess whether hypertension is an independent risk factor for mortality among patients hospitalised with COVID-19, and to evaluate the impact of ACE inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) use on mortality in patients with a background of hypertension. Method This observational cohort study included all index hospitalisations with laboratory-proven COVID-19 aged ≥18 years across 21 Australian hospitals. Patients with suspected, but not laboratory-proven COVID-19, were excluded. Registry data were analysed for in-hospital mortality in patients with comorbidities including hypertension, and baseline treatment with ACE inhibitors or ARBs. Results 546 consecutive patients (62.9±19.8 years old, 51.8% male) hospitalised with COVID-19 were enrolled. In the multivariable model, significant predictors of mortality were age (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.09, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.12, p 〈 0.001), heart failure or cardiomyopathy (aOR 2.71, 95% CI 1.13 to 6.53, p=0.026), chronic kidney disease (aOR 2.33, 95% CI 1.02 to 5.32, p=0.044) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aOR 2.27, 95% CI 1.06 to 4.85, p=0.035). Hypertension was the most prevalent comorbidity (49.5%) but was not independently associated with increased mortality (aOR 0.92, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.77, p=0.81). Among patients with hypertension, ACE inhibitor (aOR 1.37, 95% CI 0.61 to 3.08, p=0.61) and ARB (aOR 0.64, 95% CI 0.27 to 1.49, p=0.30) use was not associated with mortality. Conclusions In patients hospitalised with COVID-19, pre-existing hypertension was the most prevalent comorbidity but was not independently associated with mortality. Similarly, the baseline use of ACE inhibitors or ARBs had no independent association with in-hospital mortality.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2053-3624
    Language: English
    Publisher: BMJ
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2747269-3
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  • 4
    In: Archives of Disease in Childhood, BMJ, Vol. 106, No. 1 ( 2021-01), p. 31-37
    Abstract: Use next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology to improve our diagnostic yield in patients with suspected genetic disorders in the Asian setting. Design A diagnostic study conducted between 2014 and 2019 (and ongoing) under the Singapore Undiagnosed Disease Program. Date of last analysis was 1 July 2019. Setting Inpatient and outpatient genetics service at two large academic centres in Singapore. Patients Inclusion criteria: patients suspected of genetic disorders, based on abnormal antenatal ultrasound, multiple congenital anomalies and developmental delay. Exclusion criteria: patients with known genetic disorders, either after clinical assessment or investigations (such as karyotype or chromosomal microarray). Interventions Use of NGS technology—whole exome sequencing (WES) or whole genome sequencing (WGS). Main outcome measures (1) Diagnostic yield by sequencing type, (2) diagnostic yield by phenotypical categories, (3) reduction in time to diagnosis and (4) change in clinical outcomes and management. Results We demonstrate a 37.8% diagnostic yield for WES (n=172) and a 33.3% yield for WGS (n=24). The yield was higher when sequencing was conducted on trios (40.2%), as well as for certain phenotypes (neuromuscular, 54%, and skeletal dysplasia, 50%). In addition to aiding genetic counselling in 100% of the families, a positive result led to a change in treatment in 27% of patients. Conclusion Genomic sequencing is an effective method for diagnosing rare disease or previous ‘undiagnosed’ disease. The clinical utility of WES/WGS is seen in the shortened time to diagnosis and the discovery of novel variants. Additionally, reaching a diagnosis significantly impacts families and leads to alteration in management of these patients.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-9888 , 1468-2044
    Language: English
    Publisher: BMJ
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1481191-1
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  • 5
    In: Journal for ImmunoTherapy of Cancer, BMJ, Vol. 10, No. 7 ( 2022-07), p. e004434-
    Abstract: Nonmelanoma skin cancers (NMSCs) are some of the most commonly diagnosed malignancies. In general, early-stage NMSCs have favorable outcomes; however, a small subset of patients develop resistant, advanced, or metastatic disease, or aggressive subtypes that are more challenging to treat successfully. Recently, immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC), cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC), and basal cell carcinoma (BCC). Although ICIs have demonstrated activity against NMSCs, the routine clinical use of these agents may be more challenging due to a number of factors including the lack of predictive biomarkers, the need to consider special patient populations, the management of toxicity, and the assessment of atypical responses. With the goal of improving patient care by providing expert guidance to the oncology community, the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) convened a multidisciplinary panel of experts to develop a clinical practice guideline (CPG). The expert panel drew on the published literature as well as their own clinical experience to develop recommendations for healthcare professionals on important aspects of immunotherapeutic treatment for NMSCs, including staging, biomarker testing, patient selection, therapy selection, post-treatment response evaluation and surveillance, and patient quality of life (QOL) considerations, among others. The evidence- and consensus-based recommendations in this CPG are intended to provide guidance to cancer care professionals treating patients with NMSCs.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2051-1426
    Language: English
    Publisher: BMJ
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2719863-7
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  • 6
    In: BMJ Open, BMJ, Vol. 13, No. 6 ( 2023-06), p. e069708-
    Abstract: The BALANCE study is a randomised clinical trial (3626 participants) designed to assess the non-inferiority of 7 days (short-course) antibiotic therapy compared with 14 days of therapy for bacteraemia using the pragmatic endpoint of 90-day survival. Based on pilot study data, approximately 30% of enrolees will have a urinary tract infection (UTI) as the source of bacteraemia. Methods and analysis We aim to assess the non-inferiority of short-course antibiotic therapy for patients with bacteraemia UTIs. Participating sites in four countries will be invited to join this substudy. All participants of this substudy will be enrolled in the main BALANCE study. The intervention will be assigned and treatment administered as specified in the main protocol. We will include participants in this substudy if the probable source of their infection is a UTI, as judged by the site principal investigator, and they have a urine microscopy and culture indicative of a UTI. Participants will be excluded if they have an ileal loop, vesicoureteric reflux or suspected or confirmed prostatitis. The primary outcome is the absence of a positive culture on a test-of-cure urine sample collected 6–12 days after cessation of antimicrobials, with a non-inferiority margin of 15%. Secondary outcomes include the clinical resolution of infection symptoms at test-of-cure. Ethics and dissemination The study has been approved in conjunction with the main BALANCE study through the relevant ethics review process at each participating site. We will disseminate the results through the Australasian Society for Infectious Diseases, Canadian Critical Care Trials Group, the Association for Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases Canada Clinical Research Network (AMMI Canada CRN) and other collaborators. Universal trial number U1111-1256-0874. Main BALANCE trial registration NCT03005145 . Trial registration number Australian Clinical Trial Register: ACTRN12620001108909.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2044-6055 , 2044-6055
    Language: English
    Publisher: BMJ
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2599832-8
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  • 7
    In: Regional Anesthesia & Pain Medicine, BMJ, Vol. 47, No. 1 ( 2022-01), p. 3-59
    Abstract: The past two decades have witnessed a surge in the use of cervical spine joint procedures including joint injections, nerve blocks and radiofrequency ablation to treat chronic neck pain, yet many aspects of the procedures remain controversial. Methods In August 2020, the American Society of Regional Anesthesia and Pain Medicine and the American Academy of Pain Medicine approved and charged the Cervical Joint Working Group to develop neck pain guidelines. Eighteen stakeholder societies were identified, and formal request-for-participation and member nomination letters were sent to those organizations. Participating entities selected panel members and an ad hoc steering committee selected preliminary questions, which were then revised by the full committee. Each question was assigned to a module composed of 4–5 members, who worked with the Subcommittee Lead and the Committee Chairs on preliminary versions, which were sent to the full committee after revisions. We used a modified Delphi method whereby the questions were sent to the committee en bloc and comments were returned in a non-blinded fashion to the Chairs, who incorporated the comments and sent out revised versions until consensus was reached. Before commencing, it was agreed that a recommendation would be noted with 〉 50% agreement among committee members, but a consensus recommendation would require ≥75% agreement. Results Twenty questions were selected, with 100% consensus achieved in committee on 17 topics. Among participating organizations, 14 of 15 that voted approved or supported the guidelines en bloc, with 14 questions being approved with no dissensions or abstentions. Specific questions addressed included the value of clinical presentation and imaging in selecting patients for procedures, whether conservative treatment should be used before injections, whether imaging is necessary for blocks, diagnostic and prognostic value of medial branch blocks and intra-articular joint injections, the effects of sedation and injectate volume on validity, whether facet blocks have therapeutic value, what the ideal cut-off value is for designating a block as positive, how many blocks should be performed before radiofrequency ablation, the orientation of electrodes, whether larger lesions translate into higher success rates, whether stimulation should be used before radiofrequency ablation, how best to mitigate complication risks, if different standards should be applied to clinical practice and trials, and the indications for repeating radiofrequency ablation. Conclusions Cervical medial branch radiofrequency ablation may provide benefit to well-selected individuals, with medial branch blocks being more predictive than intra-articular injections. More stringent selection criteria are likely to improve denervation outcomes, but at the expense of false-negatives (ie, lower overall success rate). Clinical trials should be tailored based on objectives, and selection criteria for some may be more stringent than what is ideal in clinical practice.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1098-7339 , 1532-8651
    Language: English
    Publisher: BMJ
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2028901-7
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  • 8
    In: BMJ Open Quality, BMJ, Vol. 12, No. 3 ( 2023-07), p. e002261-
    Abstract: Reducing laboratory test overuse is important for high quality, patient-centred care. Identifying priorities to reduce low value testing remains a challenge. Objective To develop a simple, data-driven approach to identify potential sources of laboratory overuse by combining the total cost, proportion of abnormal results and physician-level variation in use of laboratory tests. Design, setting and participants A multicentre, retrospective study at three academic hospitals in Toronto, Canada. All general internal medicine (GIM) hospitalisations between 1 April 2010 and 31 October 2017. Results There were 106 813 GIM hospitalisations during the study period, with median hospital length-of-stay of 4.6 days (IQR: 2.33–9.19). There were 21 tests which had a cumulative cost 〉 US$15 400 at all three sites. The costliest test was plasma electrolytes (US$4 907 775), the test with the lowest proportion of abnormal results was red cell folate (0.2%) and the test with the greatest physician-level variation in use was antiphospholipid antibodies (coefficient of variation 3.08). The five tests with the highest cumulative rank based on greatest cost, lowest proportion of abnormal results and highest physician-level variation were: (1) lactate, (2) antiphospholipid antibodies, (3) magnesium, (4) troponin and (5) partial thromboplastin time. In addition, this method identified unique tests that may be a potential source of laboratory overuse at each hospital. Conclusions A simple multidimensional, data-driven approach combining cost, proportion of abnormal results and physician-level variation can inform interventions to reduce laboratory test overuse. Reducing low value laboratory testing is important to promote high value, patient-centred care.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2399-6641
    Language: English
    Publisher: BMJ
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2952859-8
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  • 9
    In: BMJ Open, BMJ, Vol. 13, No. 3 ( 2023-03), p. e061840-
    Abstract: Convenience sampling is an imperfect but important tool for seroprevalence studies. For COVID-19, local geographic variation in cases or vaccination can confound studies that rely on the geographically skewed recruitment inherent to convenience sampling. The objectives of this study were: (1) quantifying how geographically skewed recruitment influences SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence estimates obtained via convenience sampling and (2) developing new methods that employ Global Positioning System (GPS)-derived foot traffic data to measure and minimise bias and uncertainty due to geographically skewed recruitment. Design We used data from a local convenience-sampled seroprevalence study to map the geographic distribution of study participants’ reported home locations and compared this to the geographic distribution of reported COVID-19 cases across the study catchment area. Using a numerical simulation, we quantified bias and uncertainty in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence estimates obtained using different geographically skewed recruitment scenarios. We employed GPS-derived foot traffic data to estimate the geographic distribution of participants for different recruitment locations and used this data to identify recruitment locations that minimise bias and uncertainty in resulting seroprevalence estimates. Results The geographic distribution of participants in convenience-sampled seroprevalence surveys can be strongly skewed towards individuals living near the study recruitment location. Uncertainty in seroprevalence estimates increased when neighbourhoods with higher disease burden or larger populations were undersampled. Failure to account for undersampling or oversampling across neighbourhoods also resulted in biased seroprevalence estimates. GPS-derived foot traffic data correlated with the geographic distribution of serosurveillance study participants. Conclusions Local geographic variation in seropositivity is an important concern in SARS-CoV-2 serosurveillance studies that rely on geographically skewed recruitment strategies. Using GPS-derived foot traffic data to select recruitment sites and recording participants’ home locations can improve study design and interpretation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2044-6055 , 2044-6055
    Language: English
    Publisher: BMJ
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2599832-8
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  • 10
    In: BMJ Global Health, BMJ, Vol. 7, No. 11 ( 2022-11), p. e008460-
    Abstract: Collecting data to understand violence against women and children during and after the COVID-19 pandemic is essential to inform violence prevention and response efforts. Although researchers across fields have pivoted to remote rather than in-person data collection, remote research on violence against women, children and young people poses particular challenges. As a group of violence researchers, we reflect on our experiences across eight studies in six countries that we redesigned to include remote data collection methods. We found the following areas were crucial in fulfilling our commitments to participants, researchers, violence prevention and research ethics: (1) designing remote data collection in the context of strong research partnerships; (2) adapting data collection approaches; (3) developing additional safeguarding processes in the context of remote data collection during the pandemic; and (4) providing remote support for researchers. We discuss lessons learnt in each of these areas and across the research design and implementation process, and summarise key considerations for other researchers considering remote data collection on violence.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2059-7908
    Language: English
    Publisher: BMJ
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2851843-3
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