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  • 1
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    Short-term detection of volcanic unrest at Mt. Etna by means of a multi-station warning system (2019)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-12-05
    Description: Early-warning assessment of a volcanic unrest requires that accurate information from monitoring is continuously gathered before volcanic activity starts. Seismic data are an optimal source of such information, overcoming safety problems due to dangerous conditions for field surveys or cloud cover that may hinder visibility. We designed a multi-station warning system based on the classification of patterns of the background seismic radiation, so-called volcanic tremor, by using Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and fuzzy clustering. The classifier automatically detects patterns that are typical footprints of volcanic unrest. The issuance of the SOM colors on DEM allows their geographical visualization according to the stations of detection; this spatial location makes it possible to infer areas potentially impacted by eruptive phenomena. Tested at Mt. Etna (Italy), the classifier forecasted in hindsight patterns associated with fast-rising magma (typical of lava fountains) as well as a relatively long lead time of the outburst (lava flows from eruptive fractures). Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves gave an Area Under the Curve (AUC) ∼0.8 indicative of a good detection accuracy that cannot be achieved from a mere random choice.
    Description: This work was supported by the MED-SUV project, which has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Program for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308665.
    Description: Published
    Description: id 6506
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Etna, Volcanic tremor ; Volcano Monitoring, Pattern recognition ; Self organizing map, Fuzzy clustering ; 04.06. Seismology ; 04.08. Volcanology ; 05.01. Computational geophysics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 2
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    Energy threshold changes in volcanic activity at Mt. Etna (Italy) inferred from volcanic tremor (2022)
    Springer Nature
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-28
    Description: From the 2010s on, pattern classification has proven an effective method for flagging alerts of volcano unrest before eruptive activity at Mt. Etna, Italy. The analysis has been applied online to volcanic tremor data, and has supported the surveillance activity of the volcano that provides timely information to Civil Protection and other authorities. However, after declaring an alert, no one knows how long the volcano unrest will last and if a climactic eruptive activity will actually begin. These are critical aspects when considering the effects of a prolonged state of alert. An example of longstanding unrest is related to the Christmas Eve eruption in 2018, which was heralded by several months of almost continuous Strombolian activity. Here, we discuss the usage of thresholds to detect conditions leading to paroxysmal activity, and the challenges associated with defining such thresholds, leveraging a dataset of 52 episodes of lava fountains occurring in 2021. We were able to identify conservative settings regarding the thresholds, allowing for an early warning of impending paroxysm in almost all cases (circa 85% for the first 4 months in 2021, and over 90% for the whole year). The chosen thresholds also proved useful to predict that a paroxysmal activity was about to end. Such information provides reliable numbers for volcanologists for their assessments, based on visual information, which may not be available in bad weather or cloudy conditions.
    Description: Project IMPACT (A multidisciplinary Insight on the kinematics and dynamics of Magmatic Processes at Mt. Etna Aimed at identifying preCursor phenomena and developing early warning sysTems). IMPACT belongs to the Progetti Dipartimentali INGV [DIP7], https://progetti.ingv.it/index.php/it/progetti-dipartimentali/vulcani/impact#informazioni-sul-progetto.
    Description: Published
    Description: 17895
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Volcanic tremor ; Volcano monitoring ; Pattern recognition ; Self Organizing maps ; Fuzzy clustering ; Mt. Etna ; 04.06. Seismology ; 04.08. Volcanology ; 05.01. Computational geophysics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    PAPER (OA)
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