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  • 2020-2022  (15)
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  • 1
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    The seismic sound of deep volcanic processes (2020)
    In:  Abstracts
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-07-08
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 2
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    Critical fluid injection volumes for uncontrolled fracture ascent (2020)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters
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    Publication Date: 2020-12-11
    Description: Hydro‐fracturing is a routine industrial technique whose safety depends on fractures remaining confined within the target rock volume. Both observations and theoretical models show that, if the fluid volume is larger than a critical value, pockets of fluid can propagate large distances in the Earth's crust in a self‐sustained, uncontrolled manner. Existing models for such critical volumes are unsatisfactory, most are two‐dimensional and depend on poorly constrained parameters (typically the fracture length). Here we derive both analytically and numerically in three dimensions scale‐independent critical volumes as a function of only rock and fluid properties. We apply our model to gas, water and magma injections in laboratory, industrial and natural settings, showing that our critical volumes are consistent with observations and can be used as conservative estimates. We discuss competing mechanisms promoting fracture arrest, whose quantitative study could help to assess more comprehensively the safety of hydro‐fracturing operations.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 3
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    Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards (2020)
    In:  Reviews of Geophysics
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    Publication Date: 2020-12-14
    Description: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 4
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    Volcano‐Wide Deformation After the 2017 Erta Ale Dike Intrusion, Ethiopia, Observed With Radar Interferometry (2020)
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-14
    Description: Erta Ale Volcano erupted on 16 January 2017 in a difficult‐to‐access terrain in the Erta Ale volcanic range in Ethiopia. Like many other rifting ridge volcanoes, little is known about the properties of the deep magma plumbing system. Here, we analyze interferometric synthetic aperture radar data from different satellites between late January 2017 and May 2019 to study the ground deformation after the start of the intrusion to infer the possible geometry and volume change of the magma reservoir that fed the eruption. We identified volcano‐wide subsidence of up to 9 cm and horizontal contraction of up to ~5 cm that extend from Erta Ale to neighboring volcanoes. The modeling results suggest that an off‐rift NE‐SW elongated mid‐crustal source is required to explain the observed volcano‐wide deformation, but the depth is poorly constrained and the shape is complex. We suggest the presence of vertical interactions between stacked mid‐crustal magma sources. Our study demonstrates that a considerable volume of melt could have been stored in mid‐crustal magma reservoirs within the slow‐spreading Erta Ale Ridge to facilitate recent volcanic activity.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 5
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    Gelatin-based analog models simulating dike propagation in the upper crust (2021)
    GFZ Data Services
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    Publication Date: 2021-02-28
    Description: This dataset collects the results of a series of experiments carried out on air-filled cracks injected into pigskin gelatin blocks between September 2019 and May 2020 at GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam (Germany). Such experiments were intended to simulate dike propagation in the upper crust, in settings where tectonic and surface unloading stress are dominant in determining the stress field within the medium. The gelatin blocks were laterally strained and rift-like excavations were moulded on their surfaces. These data include pictures of each experimental setup and video records of each injected crack, as well as tables collecting the measured arrival points of the cracks at the surface of the gelatin and relevant elastic and geometric parameters. The data publication is a Supplement to Mantiloni et al. (2020): "Stress inversion in a gelatin box: testing eruptive vent location forecasts with analog models" (Geophys. Res. Lett.), to which the reader is referred for further information.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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  • 6
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    Wo genau können neue Vulkane entstehen? : Interview (2020)
    In:  Vulkanismus und Gesellschaft. Zwischen Risiko, Vorsorge und Faszination
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-10
    Description: Die Menschheit breitet sich immer mehr über den Planeten aus. Das hat zur Folge, dass urbane Räume Vulkanen immer näherkommen. Manche Städte liegen sehr nah an oder sogar auf einem monogenetischen Feld. Beispiele dafür sind Neapel, Mexico City oder auch Auckland. In solchen Fällen wäre es wichtig zu wissen, wo Lava austreten oder sich ein Vulkankegel bilden könnte. Dr. Eleonora Rivalta vom Deutschen GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) beschäftigt sich unter anderem mit solchen Fragestellungen.
    Language: German
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 7
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    The source scaling and seismic productivity of slow slip transients (2021)
    In:  Science Advances
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-20
    Description: Slow slip events (SSEs) represent a slow faulting process leading to aseismic strain release often accompanied by seismic tremor or earthquake swarms. The larger SSEs last longer and are often associated with intense and energetic tremor activity, suggesting that aseismic slip controls tremor genesis. A similar pattern has been observed for SSEs that trigger earthquake swarms, although no comparative studies exist on the source parameters of SSEs and tremor or earthquake swarms. We analyze the source scaling of SSEs and associated tremor- or swarm-like seismicity through our newly compiled dataset. We find a correlation between the aseismic and seismic moment release indicating that the shallower SSEs produce larger seismic moment release than deeper SSEs. The scaling may arise from the heterogeneous frictional and rheological properties of faults prone to SSEs and is mainly controlled by temperature. Our results indicate that similar physical phenomena govern tremor and earthquake swarms during SSEs.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 8
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    Repeating earthquakes and ground deformation reveal the structure and triggering mechanisms of the Pernicana fault, Mt. Etna (2021)
    In:  Communications Earth & Environment
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: Structure and dynamics of fault systems can be investigated using repeating earthquakes as repeatable seismic sources, alongside ground deformation measurements. Here we utilise a dataset of repeating earthquakes which occurred between 2000 and 2019 along the transtensive Pernicana fault system on the northeast flank of Mount Etna, Italy, to investigate the fault structure, as well as the triggering mechanisms of the seismicity. By grouping the repeating earthquakes into families and integrating the seismic data with GPS measurements of ground deformation, we identify four distinct portions of the fault. Each portion shows a different behaviour in terms of seismicity, repeating earthquakes and ground deformation, which we attribute to structural differences including a segmentation of the fault plane at depth. The recurrence intervals of repeating earthquake families display a low degree of regularity which suggests an episodic triggering mechanism, such as magma intrusion, rather than displacement under a constant stress.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 9
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    Stress inversion in a gelatin box: testing eruptive vent location forecasts with analog models. (2021)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-22
    Description: Assessing volcanic hazard in regions of distributed volcanism is challenging because of the uncertain location of future vents. A statistical‐mechanical strategy to forecast such locations was recently proposed: here we further develop and test it with analog models. We stress a gelatin block laterally and with surface excavations, and observe air‐filled crack trajectories. We use the observed surface arrivals to sample the distributions of parameters describing the stress state of the gelatin block, combining deterministic crack trajectory simulations with a Monte Carlo approach. While the individual stress parameters remain unconstrained, we effectively retrieve their ratio and successfully forecast the arrival points of subsequent cracks.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 10
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    Drainage of a deep magma reservoir near Mayotte inferred from seismicity and deformation (2020)
    In:  Abstracts
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-05-16
    Description: Since May 2018, a seismically quiet area offshore the island of Mayotte, Comoros archipelago, has been affected by a complex seismic sequence, including a massive swarm of thousands of earthquakes, long-duration very long period (VLP) signals recorded globally and a large surface deflation recorded by GNSS stations on Mayotte. We systematically analysed regional and global seismological data and local deformation data to provide a detailed picture of a deep, rare magmatic process without any on-site monitoring. We identify and locate ~7000 volcano-tectonic earthquakes (VT) and more than 400 VLPs, and determine the geometry of both faulting and the magma reservoir. Early VTs migrated upward in response to a magmatic dike propagating from Moho depth to the surface, while later events marked the progressive failure of the reservoir’s roof thus triggering its resonance. VLP and deformation analysis suggest that a 10–15 km diameter magmatic body has lost at least 1.3 km3 of magma. This episode represents the deepest monitored drainage of a large reservoir initiating the partial collapse of its roof.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
    Format: video/mp4
    Format: video/mp4
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