Description: Climate change in the Arctic is embedded in the global climate system leading to phenomenon like Arctic Amplification and linkages to the mid-latitudes. A major forcing emerges from changed surface conditions like declining sea ice cover (SIC) and rising sea surface temperatures (SST). We performed time-slice model experiments with the global atmosphere-only model ECHAM6 and changed SIC and SST to either high or low states, respectively. These experiments are compared to reanalysis data and analysed aiming at a separation between the influences of SIC and SST, while focusing on linkages between the Arctic and mid-latitudes in winter. We identify five significant regimes in the Atlantic-Eurasian sector with the k-means clustering method. The regimes include different blocking patterns, situation with strong low pressure influence and the North Atlantic Oscillation in its two phases. Their frequency of occurrence is discussed for winter months. In the reanalysis we observe an increase of blocking patterns in early winter of the most recent decades. This is reproduced by our experiments with increased SST, where blocking becomes more dominant overall. In late winter, an increased frequency of occurrence of the North Atlantic Oscillation in its negative phase is observed. This and the overall temporal behaviour of regimes in recent years is best represented if SST and SIC are changed to their more recent state simultaneously. Therefore, our results suggest that increased SSTs and reduced SIC together act on observed linkages between polar regions and mid-latitudes.

Description: The stratosphere is one of the main potential sources for subseasonal to seasonal predictability in midlatitudes in winter. The ability of an atmospheric model to realistically simulate the stratospheric dynamics is essential in order to move forward in the field of seasonal predictions in midlatitudes. Earlier studies with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic atmospheric model (ICON) point out that stratospheric westerlies in ICON are underestimated. This is the first extensive study on the evaluation of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric winter circulation with ICON in numerical weather prediction (NWP) mode. Seasonal experiments with the default setup are able to reproduce the basic climatology of the stratospheric polar vortex. However, westerlies are too weak and major stratospheric warmings too frequent in ICON. Both a reduction of the nonorographic, and a reduction of the orographic gravity wave and wake drag lead to a strengthening of the stratospheric vortex and a bias reduction, in particular in January. However, the effect of the nonorographic gravity wave drag scheme on the stratosphere is stronger. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling is intensified and more realistic due to a reduced gravity wave drag. Furthermore, an adjustment of the subgrid-scale orographic drag parameterization leads to a significant error reduction in the mean sea level pressure. As a result of these findings, we present our current suggested improved setup for seasonal experiments with ICON-NWP.

Description: This article sets the near-surface meteorological conditions during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition in the context of the interannual variability and extremes within the past 4 decades. Hourly ERA5 reanalysis data for the Polarstern trajectory for 1979-2020 are analyzed. The conditions were relatively normal given that they were mostly within the interquartile range of the preceding 4 decades. Nevertheless, some anomalous and even record-breaking conditions did occur, particularly during synoptic events. Extreme cases of warm, moist air transported from the northern North Atlantic or northwestern Siberia into the Arctic were identified from late fall until early spring. Daily temperature and total column water vapor were classified as being among the top-ranking warmest/wettest days or even record-breaking based on the full record. Associated with this, the longwave radiative fluxes at the surface were extremely anomalous for these winter cases. The winter and spring period was characterized by more frequent storm events and median cyclone intensity ranking in the top 25th percentile of the full record. During summer, near melting point conditions were more than a month longer than usual, and the July and August 2020 mean conditions were the all-time warmest and wettest. These record conditions near the Polarstern were embedded in large positive temperature and moisture anomalies over the whole central Arctic. In contrast, unusually cold conditions occurred during the beginning of November 2019 and in early March 2020, related to the Arctic Oscillation. In March, this was linked with anomalously strong and persistent northerly winds associated with frequent cyclone occurrence to the southeast of the Polarstern.

Description: SynopSys plans to exploits routine meteorological weather observations from the MOSAiC expedition, remote sensing data products, and meteorological forecast data to detect and characterize synoptic events in the Arctic and evaluate their influence on mid-latitudes. We implement a diagnostic framework that will advance our knowledge on dynamical processes in the coupled troposphere-stratosphere system. Our approach is based on the reciprocal analysis of observations and models. A particular focus lies in the evaluation of enhanced predictive capability through a synergistic and unique set of measurements in the Arctic and a better representation of physical processes in weather forecast models. As well documented, the Arctic region is undergoing rapid change in a warming climate. This has many implications for mid-latitude climate and consequently on the future social, economic, and political development in both regions. Improving weather forecast taking into account the coupling of the Artic and mid-latitudes is thus essential.

Description: The study addresses the question, if Arctic sea ice decline is the main driver of observed changes in terms of Arctic-midlatitude linkages during winter. We discuss, if the increase of global sea surface temperatures plays an additional role. A set of four model sensitivity experiments with different sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary conditions is analyzed and compared to observed changes in reanalysis data. A detection of atmospheric circulation regimes is performed. These regimes are evaluated for their cyclone and blocking characteristics and their changes in frequency during winter to reveal tropospheric changes induced by the change of boundary conditions. Furthermore, the impacts on the large-scale circulation up into the stratosphere are investigated. The results show that the impact from sea surface temperature changes is generally stronger than the impact of sea ice concentration changes alone. However, in particular in terms of the startospheric pathway, the combined impact of sea ice and sea surface temperature changes reproduces findings from the reanalysis best. For early winter, the observed increase in atmospheric blocking in the region between Scandinavia and the Ural are primarily induced by the changes in sea surface temperatures. Nevertheless, the impacts on the stratospheric circulation in terms of a weakened polar vortex, are only observed if sea ice is reduced and sea surface temperatures are increased. Late winter impacts are more inconsistent in the model sensitivity study, but slightly improved when both components of forcing are changed. In this context, we further identify a discrepancy in the model to reproduce the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex through blocking induced upward propagation of planetary waves.