Publication Date:
2020-03-12
Description:
Seasonal rainfall in the Caribbean Basin is known to be modulated by sea surface temperature
anomalies (SSTAs) in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and particularly those in the Equatorial Pacific
and Atlantic and the Tropical North Atlantic. However, little is known about how these major
oceans influence the seasonal precipitation of individual small island states within the region as
climate variability at the island-scale may di er from the Caribbean as a whole. Correlation and
composite analyses were determined using monthly rainfall data for the southernmost island of
the Caribbean, Trinidad, and an extended area of global SSTAs. In addition to the subregions that
are known to modulate Caribbean rainfall, our analyses show that sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
located in the subtropical South Pacific, the South Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico also have weak (r2
〈 0.5) yet significant influences on the islands’ early rainy season (ERS) and late rainy season (LRS)
precipitation. Composite maps confirm that the South Pacific, South Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico
show significant SSTAs in December–January–February (DJF) and March–April–May (MAM) prior to
the ERS and the LRS. Statistical models for seasonal forecasting of rainfall at the island scale could be
improved by using the SSTAs of the Pacific and Atlantic subregions identified in this study.
Description:
Published
Description:
id 707
Description:
4A. Oceanografia e clima
Description:
JCR Journal
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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