Note: Cover -- Half-title -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Contributors -- Foreword -- Preface -- The significance of weather and climate extremes to society: an introduction -- References -- I Defining and modeling the nature of weather and climate extremes -- 1 Definition, diagnosis, and origin of extreme weather and climate events -- Condensed summary -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Definition of extreme events -- 1.2.1 Severe, rare, extreme, or high-impact? -- 1.2.2 Multidimensional nature of extreme events -- 1.2.3 A simple taxonomy -- 1.3 Statistical diagnosis of extreme events -- 1.3.1 Point process modeling of simple extreme events -- 1.3.2 Example: central England temperature observations -- 1.3.3 Choice of threshold -- 1.3.4 Magnitude of the extreme events (distribution of the marks) -- 1.3.5 Timing of the extreme events (distribution of the points) -- 1.3.6 Some ideas for future work -- 1.4 The origin of extreme events -- 1.5 Conclusion -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 2 Observed changes in the global distribution of daily temperature and precipitation extremes -- Condensed summary -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Climate extremes and data issues -- 2.3 Changes in temperature extremes -- 2.4 Extreme precipitation -- 2.5 Summary -- References -- 3 The spatial distribution of severe convective storms and an analysis of their secular changes -- Condensed summary -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Underlying problems and approaches -- 3.3 Environmental conditions associated with severe thunderstorms -- 3.4 Historical changes in environments -- 3.5 Conclusions and future needs -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 4 Regional storm climate and related marine hazards in the Northeast Atlantic -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 How can we determine decadal and longer variations in the storm climate?. , 4.3 How has the storm climate in the Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe developed in the past few decades and past few centuries? -- 4.4 How is storm climate variability linked to hemispheric temperature variations? -- 4.5 How did the impact of windstorms on North Sea storm surges and ocean waves develop over past decades, and what may happen in the expected course of anthropogenic climate change? -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 5 Extensive summer hot and cold extremes under current and possible future climatic conditions: Europe and North America -- Condensed summary -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Regional hot and cold summer indices -- 5.2.1 Europe -- 5.2.2 Midlatitude North America -- 5.3 Role of precipitation -- 5.4 Summary and conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 6 Beyond mean climate change: what climate models tell us about future climate extremes -- Condensed summary -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Heat waves will become more intense, longer, and more frequent -- 6.2.1 Defining a heat wave -- 6.2.2 Worst three-day events -- 6.2.3 Spells of days above climatological thresholds -- 6.2.4 Validation of the climate model -- 6.3 Ten indices of climate extremes: model projected changes during the twenty-first century -- 6.3.1 Definitions of climate extreme indices -- 6.3.2 Extreme indices and climate model output -- 6.3.3 Trends in extreme indices during the twentieth century -- 6.3.4 Changes in extreme indices -- 6.3.5 More about precipitation intensity -- 6.4 Conclusions -- References -- 7 Tropical cyclones and climate change: revisiting recent studies at GFDL -- Condensed summary -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Tropical Atlantic (Main Development Region) temperature trends -- 7.3 Review of KT04 results -- 7.3.1 Methodology for idealized hurricane simulations -- 7.3.2 Intensity simulation results -- 7.3.3 Revised precipitation results. , 7.3.4 Comparison of KT04 with observed intensity trends -- 7.4 Conclusions -- References -- II Impacts of weather and climate extremes -- 8 Extreme climatic events and their impacts: examples from the Swiss Alps -- Condensed summary -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Observations and models -- 8.3 Climate extremes in the Alpine region -- 8.3.1 Summer heat waves -- 8.3.2 Heavy precipitation events -- 8.4 Impacts of extreme events -- 8.5 Conclusions -- References -- 9 The impact of weather and climate extremes on coral growth -- Condensed summary -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Meteorological processes influencing corals -- 9.2.1 Irradiance and coral growth rate -- 9.2.2 Sea level and coral growth -- 9.2.3 Temperature and coral growth rate -- 9.2.4 Winds and ocean currents -- 9.2.5 Wave energy -- 9.2.6 Precipitation, salinity, and sedimentation -- 9.2.7 Atmospheric CO2 and calcium carbonate chemistry -- 9.3 Coral colony growth rates and models -- 9.3.1 Introduction -- 9.3.2 Modeling coral growth in Cura… -- 9.4 Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 10 Forecasting US insured hurricane losses -- Condensed summary -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Normalized insured losses: 1900-2005 -- 10.3 Climate variations -- 10.4 Large and small losses -- 10.5 Predicting annual losses -- 10.6 Predicting extreme losses -- 10.7 Summary -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 11 Integrating hurricane loss models with climate models -- Condensed summary -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Overview of loss models -- 11.3 Climate models as drivers of loss estimation models -- 11.3.1 Modifications to the CCSM and nesting methodology -- 11.3.2 Generation of simulated ATCF ''A Deck'' -- 11.3.3 Atlantic basin results -- 11.4 Summary -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 12 An exploration of trends in normalized weather-related catastrophe losses -- Condensed summary -- 12.1 Introduction. , 12.2 Data -- 12.3 Methodology -- 12.4 Caveats -- 12.5 Normalization results -- 12.6 Trend analysis -- 12.7 Discussion -- 12.7.1 Disaster loss trends -- 12.7.2 Climate change -- 12.7.3 Trend sensitivity -- 12.8 Conclusions -- References -- 13 An overview of the impact of climate change on the insurance industry -- Condensed summary -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.2 Recent UK weather trends -- 13.3 UK property insurance experience -- 13.4 Weather risk trends in the United Kingdom -- 13.4.1 The Foresight Programme's view of flooding in the 2080s -- 13.4.2 Illustrative reinsurance example -- 13.4.3 Potential range of increase in risk premium -- 13.4.4 Implications for underwriting -- 13.5 2005 in perspective -- 13.6 Munich Re estimates of climate-related losses -- 13.6.1 Parallels with the United Kingdom -- 13.7 Loss trends and projections -- 13.8 European storms -- 13.9 Other issues -- 13.9.1 Other property/casualty classes -- 13.9.2 Mitigation policy -- 13.9.3 The right null hypothesis? -- 13.10 The future role of the insurance industry -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 14 Toward a comprehensive loss inventory of weather and climate hazards -- Condensed summary -- 14.1 Introduction -- 14.2 Who needs a loss inventory? -- 14.3 Data on hazard events and losses -- 14.4 Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States -- 14.4.1 Standardizing losses in SHELDUS -- 14.4.2 Spatial coverage -- 14.4.3 Caveats -- 14.5 Increasing losses from weather-related hazards -- 14.6 Weather-battered states -- 14.7 Mitigation through information: establishing a clearinghouse for loss data -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 15 The catastrophe modeling response to Hurricane Katrina -- 15.1 Introduction -- 15.2 Hurricane Katrina -- 15.2.1 First landfall in Florida -- 15.2.2 Reemergence into the Gulf of Mexico -- 15.2.3 Second landfall in Louisiana. , 15.2.4 A formidable storm -- 15.2.5 The Great New Orleans Flood -- 15.3 Initial RMS response: estimation of losses -- 15.3.1 First landfall projected loss from wind -- 15.3.2 Second landfall projected loss from wind and storm surge -- Wind damage -- Storm surge damage -- Projected losses -- 15.3.3 Offshore energy projected losses -- 15.3.4 New Orleans projected flood losses -- 15.3.5 Other projected losses -- 15.3.6 Initial consolidated projected loss -- 15.4 The agenda of catastrophe modeling after Hurricane Katrina -- 15.4.1 Hurricane wind fields -- 15.4.2 Hurricane activity rates -- 15.4.3 Storm surge -- 15.4.4 Flooding of New Orleans -- 15.4.5 Industry exposure data -- 15.4.6 Vulnerabilities -- 15.4.7 Uncertainty in loss modeling -- 15.4.8 Loss amplification -- 15.4.9 Super catastrophes -- 15.4.10 Catastrophe models in practice -- 15.5 Conclusions -- References -- 16 The Risk Prediction Initiative: a successful science-business partnership for analyzing natural hazard risk -- Condensed summary -- 16.1 Introduction -- 16.2 Genesis of the Risk Prediction Initiative -- 16.3 RPI activities -- 16.4 Overview of RPI-funded research results -- 16.5 Melding science into the catastrophe risk business -- 16.6 The RPI as an example for other efforts -- 16.7 Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Index.

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