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  • 2020-2022  (2)
  • 2010-2014  (23)
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  • 1
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    Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea‐Level Change over the 21st Century and Beyond (2020)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Earth's Future, 8 (9). Art.Nr. e2019EF001413.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-08
    Description: We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including: (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties; (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections; (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlights the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large (〉 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see a substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, timescale and emissions scenario.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001413
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 2
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    Greenland uplift and regional sea level changes from ICESat observations and GIA modelling (2012)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-04-06
    Description: SUMMARY We study the implications of a recently published mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), derived from repeated surface elevation measurements from NASA’s ice cloud and land elevation satellite (ICESat) for the time period between 2003 and 2008. To characterize the effects of this new, high-resolution GrIS mass balance, we study the time-variations of various geophysical quantities in response to the current mass loss. They include vertical uplift and subsidence, geoid height variations, global patterns of sea level change (or fingerprints), and regional sea level variations along the coasts of Greenland. Long-wavelength uplifts and gravity variations in response to current or past ice thickness variations are obtained solving the sea level equation, which accounts for both the elastic and the viscoelastic components of deformation. To capture the short-wavelength components of vertical uplift in response to current ice mass loss, which is not resolved by satellite gravity observations, we have specifically developed a high-resolution regional elastic rebound (ER) model. The elastic component of vertical uplift is combined with estimates of the viscoelastic displacement fields associated with the process of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA), according to a set of published ice chronologies and associated mantle rheological profiles. We compare the sensitivity of global positioning system (GPS) observations along the coasts of Greenland to the ongoing ER and GIA. In notable contrast with past reports, we show that vertical velocities obtained by GPS data from five stations with sufficiently long records and from one tide gauge at the GrIS margins can be reconciled with model predictions based on the ICE-5G deglaciation model and the ER associated with the new ICESat-derived mass balance.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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    PAPER CURRENT
  • 3
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    Decadal geodetic variations in Ny-Alesund (Svalbard): role of past and present ice-mass changes (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-06-21
    Description: The geodetic rates for the gravity variation and vertical uplift in polar regions subject to past and present-day ice-mass changes (PDIMCs) provide important insight into the rheological structure of the Earth. We provide an update of the rates observed at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. To do so, we extract and remove the significant seasonal content from the observations. The rate of gravity variations, derived from absolute and relative gravity measurements, is –1.39 ± 0.11 μGal yr –1 . The rate of vertical displacements is estimated using GPS and tide gauge measurements. We obtain 7.94 ± 0.21 and 8.29 ± 1.60 mm yr –1 , respectively. We compare the extracted signal with that predicted by GLDAS/Noah and ERA-interim hydrology models. We find that the seasonal gravity variations are well-represented by local hydrology changes contained in the ERA-interim model. The phase of seasonal vertical displacements are due to non-local continental hydrology and non-tidal ocean loading. However, a large part of the amplitude of the seasonal vertical displacements remains unexplained. The geodetic rates are used to investigate the asthenosphere viscosity and lithosphere/asthenosphere thicknesses. We first correct the updated geodetic rates for those induced by PDIMCs in Svalbard, using published results, and the sea level change due to the melting of the major ice reservoirs. We show that the latter are at the level of the geodetic rate uncertainties and are responsible for rates of gravity variations and vertical displacements of –0.29 ± 0.03 μGal yr –1 and 1.11 ± 0.10 mm yr –1 , respectively. To account for the late Pleistocene deglaciation, we use the global ice evolution model ICE-3G. The Little Ice Age (LIA) deglaciation in Svalbard is modelled using a disc load model with a simple linear temporal evolution. The geodetic rates at Ny-Ålesund induced by the past deglaciations depend on the viscosity structure of the Earth. We find that viscous relaxation time due to the LIA deglaciation in Svalbard is more than 60 times shorter than that due to the Pleistocene deglaciation. We also find that the response to past and PDIMCs of an Earth model with asthenosphere viscosities ranging between 1.0 and 5.5 x 10 18 Pa s and lithosphere (resp. asthenosphere) thicknesses ranging between 50 and 100 km (resp. 120 and 170 km) can explain the rates derived from geodetic observations.
    Keywords: Gravity, Geodesy and Tides
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 4
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    Greenland uplift and regional sea level changes from ICESat observations and GIA modelling (2012)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-04-15
    Description: SUMMARY We study the implications of a recently published mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), derived from repeated surface elevation measurements from NASA’s ice cloud and land elevation satellite (ICESat) for the time period between 2003 and 2008. To characterize the effects of this new, high-resolution GrIS mass balance, we study the time-variations of various geophysical quantities in response to the current mass loss. They include vertical uplift and subsidence, geoid height variations, global patterns of sea level change (or fingerprints), and regional sea level variations along the coasts of Greenland. Long-wavelength uplifts and gravity variations in response to current or past ice thickness variations are obtained solving the sea level equation, which accounts for both the elastic and the viscoelastic components of deformation. To capture the short-wavelength components of vertical uplift in response to current ice mass loss, which is not resolved by satellite gravity observations, we have specifically developed a high-resolution regional elastic rebound (ER) model. The elastic component of vertical uplift is combined with estimates of the viscoelastic displacement fields associated with the process of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA), according to a set of published ice chronologies and associated mantle rheological profiles. We compare the sensitivity of global positioning system (GPS) observations along the coasts of Greenland to the ongoing ER and GIA. In notable contrast with past reports, we show that vertical velocities obtained by GPS data from five stations with sufficiently long records and from one tide gauge at the GrIS margins can be reconciled with model predictions based on the ICE-5G deglaciation model and the ER associated with the new ICESat-derived mass balance.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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    PAPER CURRENT
  • 5
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    Late Holocene Sea Level Reconstructions Based on Observations of Roman Fish Tanks, Tyrrhenian Coast of Italy (2012)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-04-20
    Description: We present estimates for late Holocene relative sea level change along the Tyrrhenian coast of Italy based on morphological characteristics of eight submerged Roman fish tanks ( piscinae ) constructed between the 1st century B.C. and the 2nd century A.D. Underwater geomorphological features and archaeological remains related to past sea level have been measured and corrected using recorded tidal values. We conclude that local sea level during the Roman period did not exceed 58 ± 5 cm below the present sea level. These results broadly agree with previous observations in the region but contrast with recent analysis that suggests a significantly larger sea level rise during the last 2000 years. Using a glacial isostatic adjustment model, we explain how regional sea level change departs from the eustatic component. Our calculation of relative sea level during the Roman period provides a reference for isolating the long-wavelength contribution to sea level change from secular sea level rise. Precise determination of sea level rise in the study area improves our understanding of secular, instrumentally observed, variations across the Mediterranean. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
    Print ISSN: 0883-6353
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-6548
    Topics: Archaeology , Geosciences
    Published by Wiley-Blackwell
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  • 6
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    Greenland uplift and regional sea–level changes from ICESat observations and GIA modeling (2012)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-14
    Description: We study the implications of a recently published mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), derived from repeated surface elevation measurements from NASA’s ice cloud and land elevation satellite (ICESat) for the time period between 2003 and 2008. To characterize the effects of this new, high-resolution GrIS mass balance, we study the time-variations of various geophysical quantities in response to the current mass loss. They include vertical uplift and subsidence, geoid height variations, global patterns of sea level change (or fingerprints), and regional sea level variations along the coasts of Greenland. Long-wavelength uplifts and gravity variations in response to current or past ice thickness variations are obtained solving the sea level equation, which accounts for both the elastic and the viscoelastic components of deformation. To capture the short-wavelength components of vertical uplift in response to current ice mass loss, which is not resolved by satellite gravity observations, we have specifically developed a high-resolution regional elastic rebound (ER) model. The elastic component of vertical uplift is combined with estimates of the viscoelastic displacement fields associated with the process of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA), according to a set of published ice chronologies and associated mantle rheological profiles. We compare the sensitivity of global positioning system (GPS) observations along the coasts of Greenland to the ongoing ER and GIA. In notable contrast with past reports, we show that vertical velocities obtained by GPS data from five stations with sufficiently long records and from one tide gauge at the GrIS margins can be reconciled with model predictions based on the ICE-5G deglaciation model and the ER associated with the new ICESat-derived mass balance.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1457-1474
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Sea level change ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 7
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    A sea level equation for seismic perturbations (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Large earthquakes are a potentially important source of relative sea level variations, since they can drive global deformation and simultaneously perturb the gravity field of the Earth. For the first time, we formalize a gravitationally self–consistent, integral sea level equation suitable for earthquakes, in which we account both for direct effects by the seismic dislocation and for the feedback from water loading associated with sea level changes. Our approach builds upon the well established theory first proposed in the realm of glacio–isostatic adjustment modeling. The seismic sea level equation is numerically implemented to model sea level signals following the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earth- quake, showing that surface loading from ocean water redistribution (so far ignored in post–seismic deformation modeling) may account for a significant fraction of the total computed post–seismic sea level variation.
    Description: Published
    Description: 88-100
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: sea-level change ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
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    Application of the Post-Widder Laplace inversion algorithm to postseismic rebound models (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The postseismic response of a viscoelastic Earth can be computed analytically with a normal-mode approach, based on the application of propagator methods. This framework suffers from many limitations, mostly connected with the solution of the secular equation, whose degree scales with the number of viscoelas- tic layers so that only low-resolution models can be practically solved. Recently, a viable alternative to the normal-mode approach has been proposed, based on the Post-Widder inversion formula. This method allows to overcome some of the intrin- sic limitations of the normal-mode approach, so that Earth models with arbitrary radial resolution can be employed and general linear non-Maxwell rheologies can be implemented. In this work, we test the robustness of the method against a stan- dard normal-mode approach in order to optimize computation performance while ensuring the solution stability. As an application, we address the issue of finding the minimum number of layers with distinct elastic properties needed to accurately describe the postseismic relaxation of a realistic Earth model.
    Description: Published
    Description: 197-200
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: rheology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
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    A Sea Level Equation for seismic perturbations (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Large earthquakes are a potentially important source of relative sea level variations, since they can drive global deformation and simultaneously perturb the gravity field of the Earth. For the first time, we formalize a gravitationally self-consistent, integral sea level equation suitable for earthquakes, in which we account both for direct effects by the seismic dislocation and for the feedback from water loading associated with sea level changes. Our approach builds upon the well-established theory first proposed in the realm of glacio-isostatic adjustment modelling. The seismic sea level equation is numerically implemented to model sea level signals following the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake, showing that surface loading from ocean water redistribution (so far ignored in post-seismic deformation modelling) may account for a significant fraction of the total computed post-seismic sea level variation
    Description: In press
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: sea-level change ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
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    Mantle viscosity inference: a comparison between Simulated Annealing and Neighbourhood Algorithm inversion methods (2012)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Two direct search methods, simulated annealing and neighbourhood algorithm, are applied to the inversion of the viscosity profile of the mantle using relative sea level time-histories for the Hudson Bay region. In problems characterized by a low-dimensional model space (Nd = 2 in this study), the two inversion methods show comparable performances. When a larger number of dimensions is involved (specifically Nd = 6), we directly show that simulated annealing is less effective than neighbourhood algorithm in overcoming the obstacles that are found in the model space when our specific data set is employed. This study confirms that modifications of the conventional Monte Carlo inversion method, such as simulated annealing and neighbourhood algorithm, are viable tools to determine the viscosity profile of the mantle, which, until recently, has been mainly tackled by means of linearized techniques.
    Description: Published
    Description: 890-900
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: mantle viscosity ; simulated annealing ; neighbourhood algorithm ; postglacial rebound ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.03. Mantle and Core dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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