Description: An ensemble of idealized experiments with the simplified general circulation model PUMA is used to analyze the response to reduced surface friction, that is a strengthening of the eddy-driven jet, a weakening of the Eulerian mean overturning, and a suppression of baroclinic instability. The suppression of baroclinic instability is caused by an effect called the barotropic governor by which increased horizontal shear restricts the ability of baroclinic disturbances to convert available potential energy into kinetic energy. This governor effect ensures that the residual circulation and Eliassen–Palm flux (EP flux) divergence are largely invariant to the surface friction parameter despite the connection between surface friction, the Eulerian mean overturning, and the eddy-momentum flux. The suppression of instability leads to an increase in persistence measured by the period of peak variance on synoptic time-scales and a strengthened signal-to-noise ratio on seasonal time-scales. These findings suggest that the signal-to-noise paradox seen in the context of seasonal prediction can be caused by excess mechanical damping in atmospheric prediction systems inhibiting the barotropic governor effect.

Description: The Greenland high (GL-high) coincides with a local center of action of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and is known to have significant influence on Greenland ice sheet melting and summer Arctic sea ice. However, the mechanism behind the influence on regional Arctic sea ice is not yet clear. In this study, using reanalysis datasets and satellite observations, the influence of the GL-high in early summer on Arctic sea ice variability, and the mechanism behind it, are investigated. In response to an intensified GL-high, sea ice over the Beaufort Sea shows significant decline in both concentration and thickness from June through September. This decline in sea ice is primarily due to thermodynamic and mechanical redistribution processes. Firstly, the intensified GL-high increases subsidence over the Canadian Basin, leading to an increase in surface air temperature by adiabatic heating, and a substantial decrease in cloud cover and thus increased downward shortwave radiation. Secondly, the intensified GL-high increases easterly wind frequency and wind speed over the Beaufort Sea, pushing sea ice over the Canadian Basin away from the coastlines. Both processes contribute to an increase in open water areas, amplifying ice–albedo feedback and leading to sea ice decline. The mechanism identified here differs from previous studies that focused on northward moisture and heat transport and the associated increase in downward longwave radiation over the Arctic. The impact of the GL-high on the regional sea ice (also Arctic sea ice extent) can persist from June into fall, providing an important source for seasonal prediction of Arctic sea ice. The GL-high has an upward trend and reached a record high in 2012 that coincided with a record minimum summer Arctic sea ice extent, and has strong implications for summer Arctic sea ice changes.

Description: Equatorial deep jets (EDJ) are zonal currents along the equator in all three ocean basins that alternate in direction with depth and time. In the Atlantic below the thermocline, they are the dominant variability on interannual timescales. Observations of equatorial deep jets are available but scarce, given the EDJs’ location at depth, their small vertical scale and their long periodicity of several years. In the last few years, Argo floats have added a significant amount of measurements at intermediate depth. In this study we therefore revise estimates of the EDJ scales based on Argo float data. Mostly, we use velocity data at 1000 m depth calculated from float displacement, which yield robust estimates of the Atlantic EDJ period (4.6 years), amplitude distribution, phase distribution, zonal wavelength (146.7°), and meridional structure. We also show that the equatorial amplitude of the EDJs’ first meridional mode Rossby wave component (9.8 cm s −1 ) is larger than that of their Kelvin wave component (2.8 cm s −1 ). Additionally, we present a new estimation of the EDJs’ vertical structure throughout the Atlantic basin, based on an equatorial geostrophic velocity reconstruction from hydrographic Argo float measurements from depths between 400 and 2000 m. Our new estimates from Argo float data provide the first basin-wide assessment of the Atlantic EDJ scales, as well as having smaller uncertainties than estimates from earlier studies.