In:
Nature Communications, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 10, No. 1 ( 2019-05-15)
Abstract:
Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
2041-1723
DOI:
10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w
Language:
English
Publisher:
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Publication Date:
2019
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2553671-0
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