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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Interaction of the recent 50 year SST trend and La Niña 2010: amplification of the Southern Annular Mode and Australian springtime rainfall
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2016
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 47, No. 7-8 ( 2016-10), p. 2273-2291
    Details
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 47, No. 7-8 ( 2016-10), p. 2273-2291
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2963-9
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Impact of improved assimilation of temperature and salinity for coupled model seasonal forecasts
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2014
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 42, No. 9-10 ( 2014-5), p. 2565-2583
    Details
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 42, No. 9-10 ( 2014-5), p. 2565-2583
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2081-0
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Inter-decadal variations in the linkages between ENSO, the IOD and south-eastern Australian springtime rainfall in the past 30 years
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2017
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 49, No. 1-2 ( 2017-7), p. 97-112
    Details
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 49, No. 1-2 ( 2017-7), p. 97-112
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3328-8
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    〈i〉Corrigendum to〈/i〉: ACCESS-S1: The new Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system
    CSIRO Publishing ; 2020
    In:  Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Vol. 70, No. 1 ( 2020-12-17), p. 393-393
    Details
    In: Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, CSIRO Publishing, Vol. 70, No. 1 ( 2020-12-17), p. 393-393
    Abstract: ACCESS-S1 will be the next version of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal prediction system, due to become operational in early 2018. The multiweek and seasonal performance of ACCESS-S1 has been evaluated based on a 23-year hindcast set and compared to the current operational system, POAMA. The system has considerable enhancements compared to POAMA, including higher vertical and horizontal resolution of the component models and state-ofthe-art physics parameterisation schemes. ACCESS-S1 is based on the UK Met Office GloSea5-GC2 seasonal prediction system, but has enhancements to the ensemble generation strategy to make it appropriate for multi-week forecasting, and a larger ensemble size. ACCESS-S1 has markedly reduced biases in the mean state of the climate, both globally and over Australia, compared to POAMA. ACCESS-S1 also better predicts the early stages of the development of the El Ni & #xf1;o Southern Oscillation (through the predictability barrier) and the Indian Ocean Dipole, as well as multi-week variations of the Southern Annular Mode and the Madden-Julian Oscillation & #x2014; all important drivers of Australian climate variability. There is an overall improvement in the skill of the forecasts of rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) over Australia on multi-week timescales compared to POAMA. On seasonal timescales the differences between the two systems are generally less marked. ACCESS-S1 has improved seasonal forecasts over Australia for the austral spring season compared to POAMA, with particularly good forecast reliability for rainfall and Tmax. However, forecasts of seasonal mean Tmax are noticeably less skilful over eastern Australia for forecasts of late autumn and winter compared to POAMA. The study has identified scope for improvement of ACCESS-S in the future, particularly 1) reducing rainfall errors in the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent regions, and 2) initialising the land surface with realistic soil moisture rather than climatology. The latter impacts negatively on the skill of the temperature forecasts over eastern Australia and is being addressed in the next version of the system, ACCESS-S2.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2206-5865
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1071/ES17009_CO
    Language: English
    Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2982006-6
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    ACCESS-S1 The new Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system
    CSIRO Publishing ; 2017
    In:  Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Vol. 67, No. 3 ( 2017), p. 132-
    Details
    In: Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, CSIRO Publishing, Vol. 67, No. 3 ( 2017), p. 132-
    Abstract: ACCESS-S1 will be the next version of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal prediction system, due to become operational in early 2018. The multiweek and seasonal performance of ACCESS-S1 has been evaluated based on a 23-year hindcast set and compared to the current operational system, POAMA. The system has considerable enhancements compared to POAMA, including higher vertical and horizontal resolution of the component models and state-ofthe-art physics parameterisation schemes. ACCESS-S1 is based on the UK Met Office GloSea5-GC2 seasonal prediction system, but has enhancements to the ensemble generation strategy to make it appropriate for multi-week forecasting, and a larger ensemble size.ACCESS-S1 has markedly reduced biases in the mean state of the climate, both globally and over Australia, compared to POAMA. ACCESS-S1 also better predicts the early stages of the development of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (through the predictability barrier) and the Indian Ocean Dipole, as well as multi-week variations of the Southern Annular Mode and the Madden-Julian Oscillation — all important drivers of Australian climate variability. There is an overall improvement in the skill of the forecasts of rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) over Australia on multi-week timescales compared to POAMA. On seasonal timescales the differences between the two systems are generally less marked. ACCESS-S1 has improved seasonal forecasts over Australia for the austral spring season compared to POAMA, with particularly good forecast reliability for rainfall and Tmax. However, forecasts of seasonal mean Tmax are noticeably less skilful over eastern Australia for forecasts of late autumn and winter compared to POAMA.The study has identified scope for improvement of ACCESS-S in the future, particularly 1) reducing rainfall errors in the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent regions, and 2) initialising the land surface with realistic soil moisture rather than climatology. The latter impacts negatively on the skill of the temperature forecasts over eastern Australia and is being addressed in the next version of the system, ACCESS-S2.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2206-5865
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1071/ES17009
    Language: English
    Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2982006-6
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    ACCESS-S2: the upgraded Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system
    CSIRO Publishing ; 2022
    In:  Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Vol. 72, No. 3 ( 2022-12-9), p. 218-242
    Details
    In: Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, CSIRO Publishing, Vol. 72, No. 3 ( 2022-12-9), p. 218-242
    Abstract: ACCESS-S2 is a major upgrade to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s multi-week to seasonal prediction system. It was made operational in October 2021, replacing ACCESS-S1. The focus of the upgrade is the addition of a new weakly coupled data assimilation system to provide initial conditions for atmosphere, ocean, land and ice fields. The model is based on the UK Met Office GloSea5-GC2 seasonal prediction system and is unchanged from ACCESS-S1, aside from minor corrections and enhancements. The performance of the assimilation system and the skill of the seasonal and multi-week forecasts have been assessed and compared to ACCESS-S1. There are improvements in the ACCESS-S2 initial conditions compared to ACCESS-S1, particularly for soil moisture and aspects of the ocean, notably the ocean currents. More realistic soil moisture initialisation has led to increased skill for forecasts over Australia, especially those of maximum temperature. The ACCESS-S2 system is shown to have increased skill of El Nino–Southern Oscillation forecasts over ACCESS-S1 during the challenging autumn forecast period. Analysis suggests that ACCESS-S2 will deliver improved operational forecast accuracy in comparison to ACCESS-S1. Assessments of the operational forecasts are underway. ACCESS-S2 represents another step forward in the development of seasonal forecast systems at the Bureau of Meteorology. However, key rainfall and sea surface temperature biases in ACCESS-S1 remain in ACCESS-S2, indicating where future efforts should be focused.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2206-5865
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1071/ES22026
    Language: English
    Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2982006-6
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Variations of Upper-Ocean Salinity Associated with ENSO from PEODAS Reanalyses
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 29, No. 6 ( 2016-03-15), p. 2077-2094
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 29, No. 6 ( 2016-03-15), p. 2077-2094
    Abstract: Interannual variations of upper-ocean salinity in the tropical Pacific and relationships with ENSO are investigated using the Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) POAMA Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation System (PEODAS) reanalyses. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals the systematic evolution of salinity and temperature during ENSO. EOF1 and EOF2 of both temperature and salinity capture the mature phase of El Niño and the discharge and recharge phase, respectively. Typical El Niño and La Niña evolution captured by the leading pair of EOFs depicts eastward or westward migration of the eastern edge of the warm/fresh pool in the western Pacific. Increased or decreased freshness in the western Pacific mixed layer occurs in the recharge/discharge phase. EOF3 captures extreme El Niño, when the strong positive temperature anomaly extends to the South American coast and the fresh pool detaches from the western Pacific and shifts into the central Pacific. Large loadings on EOF3 occurred only during 1982/83 and 1997/98, which suggests that eastern Pacific El Niño is actually the exception, whereas moderate central Pacific El Niño and La Niña are more typical. The eastward expansion of the warm/fresh pool during El Niño is also associated with a continuous eastward displacement of the barrier layer, indicating an active role of the barrier layer not just at the onset of an event. The barrier layer and fresh pool shift much farther eastward during strong El Niño, which could contribute to the eastward shift of strong events. The prior enhancement of the barrier layer in the western Pacific is also more concentrated and stronger, which might portend development of extreme El Niño.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0650.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Impact of Salinity Constraints on the Simulated Mean State and Variability in a Coupled Seasonal Forecast Model
    American Meteorological Society ; 2013
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 141, No. 1 ( 2013-01-01), p. 388-402
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 141, No. 1 ( 2013-01-01), p. 388-402
    Abstract: The authors assess the sensitivity of the simulated mean state and coupled variability to systematic initial state salinity errors in seasonal forecasts using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) coupled model. This analysis is based on two sets of hindcasts that were initialized from old and new ocean initial conditions, respectively. The new ocean initial conditions are provided by an ensemble multivariate analysis system that assimilates subsurface temperatures and salinity and is a clear improvement over the previous system, which was based on univariate optimal interpolation, using static error covariances and assimilating only temperature without updating salinity. Large systematic errors in the salinity field around the thermocline region of the tropical western and central Pacific produced by the old assimilation scheme are shown to have strong impacts on the predicted mean state and variability in the tropical Pacific for the entire 9 months of the forecast. Forecasts initialized from the old scheme undergo a rapid and systematic adjustment of density that causes large persistent changes in temperature both locally in the western and central Pacific thermocline, but also remotely in the eastern Pacific via excitation of equatorial waves. The initial subsurface salinity errors in the western and central Pacific ultimately result in an altered surface climate because of induced temperature changes in the thermocline that trigger a coupled feedback in the eastern Pacific. These results highlight the importance of accurately representing salinity in initial conditions for climate prediction on seasonal and potentially multiyear time scales.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00341.1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Weakened Eastern Pacific El Niño Predictability in the Early Twenty-First Century
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 29, No. 18 ( 2016-09-15), p. 6805-6822
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 29, No. 18 ( 2016-09-15), p. 6805-6822
    Abstract: Predictive skill for El Niño in the equatorial eastern Pacific across a range of forecast models declined sharply in the early twenty-first century relative to what was achieved in the late twentieth century despite ongoing improvements of forecast systems. This decline coincided with a shift in Pacific climate to an enhanced east–west surface temperature gradient across the Pacific and a stronger Walker circulation at the end of the twentieth century. Using seasonal forecast sensitivity experiments with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled model POAMA2.4, the authors show that this shift in background climate acted to weaken key ocean–atmosphere feedbacks that amplify eastern Pacific El Niño, thus resulting in weaker variability that is less predictable. These results indicate that extreme El Niños, such as those that occurred in 1982/83 and 1997/98, were conditioned by the background climate and so were favored to occur in the late twentieth century. However, anticipating future changes in El Niño variability and predictability is an outstanding challenge because causes and prediction of low-frequency variations of Pacific climate have not yet been demonstrated.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0876.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Representation and prediction of the Indian Ocean dipole in the POAMA seasonal forecast model
    Wiley ; 2009
    In:  Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Vol. 135, No. 639 ( 2009-01), p. 337-352
    Details
    In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Wiley, Vol. 135, No. 639 ( 2009-01), p. 337-352
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0035-9009 , 1477-870X
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/qj.v135:639
    DOI: 10.1002/qj.370
    RVK:
    UA 1000
    RVK:
    UA 7650
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2009
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3142-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2089168-4
    SSG: 14
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