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  • Copernicus GmbH  (12)
  • Thieken, Annegret H.  (12)
  • 1
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    Compound inland flood events: different pathways, different impacts and different coping options
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2022
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 22, No. 1 ( 2022-01-27), p. 165-185
    Details
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 22, No. 1 ( 2022-01-27), p. 165-185
    Abstract: Abstract. Several severe flood events hit Germany in recent years, with events in 2013 and 2016 being the most destructive ones, although dynamics and flood processes were very different. While the 2013 event was a slowly rising widespread fluvial flood accompanied by some severe dike breaches, the events in 2016 were fast-onset pluvial floods, which resulted in surface water flooding in some places due to limited capacities of the drainage systems and in destructive flash floods with high sediment loads and clogging in others, particularly in small steep catchments. Hence, different pathways, i.e. different routes that the water takes to reach (and potentially damage) receptors, in our case private households, can be identified in both events. They can thus be regarded as spatially compound flood events or compound inland floods. This paper analyses how differently affected residents coped with these different flood types (fluvial and pluvial) and their impacts while accounting for the different pathways (river flood, dike breach, surface water flooding and flash flood) within the compound events. The analyses are based on two data sets with 1652 (for the 2013 flood) and 601 (for the 2016 flood) affected residents who were surveyed around 9 months after each flood, revealing little socio-economic differences – except for income – between the two samples. The four pathways showed significant differences with regard to their hydraulic and financial impacts, recovery, warning processes, and coping and adaptive behaviour. There are just small differences with regard to perceived self-efficacy and responsibility, offering entry points for tailored risk communication and support to improve property-level adaptation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
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  • 2
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    Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2022
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 22, No. 11 ( 2022-11-17), p. 3701-3724
    Details
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 22, No. 11 ( 2022-11-17), p. 3701-3724
    Abstract: Abstract. Extreme precipitation is a weather phenomenon with tremendous damaging potential for property and human life. As the intensity and frequency of such events is projected to increase in a warming climate, there is an urgent need to advance the existing knowledge on extreme precipitation processes, statistics and impacts across scales. To this end, a working group within the Germany-based project, ClimXtreme, has been established to carry out multidisciplinary analyses of high-impact events. In this work, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event (HPE) affecting the Berlin metropolitan region (Germany), from the meteorological, impacts and climate perspectives, including climate change attribution. Our analysis showed that this event occurred under the influence of a mid-tropospheric trough over western Europe and two shortwave surface lows over Britain and Poland (Rasmund and Rasmund II), inducing relevant low-level wind convergence along the German–Polish border. Over 11 000 convective cells were triggered, starting early morning 29 June, displacing northwards slowly under the influence of a weak tropospheric flow (10 m s−1 at 500 hPa). The quasi-stationary situation led to totals up to 196 mm d−1, making this event the 29 June most severe in the 1951–2021 climatology, ranked by means of a precipitation-based index. Regarding impacts, it incurred the largest insured losses in the period 2002 to 2017 (EUR 60 million) in the greater Berlin area. We provide further insights on flood attributes (inundation, depth, duration) based on a unique household-level survey data set. The major moisture source for this event was the Alpine–Slovenian region (63 % of identified sources) due to recycling of precipitation falling over that region 1 d earlier. Implementing three different generalised extreme value (GEV) models, we quantified the return periods for this case to be above 100 years for daily aggregated precipitation, and up to 100 and 10 years for 8 and 1 h aggregations, respectively. The conditional attribution demonstrated that warming since the pre-industrial era caused a small but significant increase of 4 % in total precipitation and 10 % for extreme intensities. The possibility that not just greenhouse-gas-induced warming, but also anthropogenic aerosols affected the intensity of precipitation is investigated through aerosol sensitivity experiments. Our multi-disciplinary approach allowed us to relate interconnected aspects of extreme precipitation. For instance, the link between the unique meteorological conditions of this case and its very large return periods, or the extent to which it is attributable to already-observed anthropogenic climate change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
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  • 3
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    The flood of June 2013 in Germany: how much do we know about its impacts?
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2016
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 16, No. 6 ( 2016-07-01), p. 1519-1540
    Details
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 16, No. 6 ( 2016-07-01), p. 1519-1540
    Abstract: Abstract. In June 2013, widespread flooding and consequent damage and losses occurred in Central Europe, especially in Germany. This paper explores what data are available to investigate the adverse impacts of the event, what kind of information can be retrieved from these data and how well data and information fulfil requirements that were recently proposed for disaster reporting on the European and international levels. In accordance with the European Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), impacts on human health, economic activities (and assets), cultural heritage and the environment are described on the national and sub-national scale. Information from governmental reports is complemented by communications on traffic disruptions and surveys of flood-affected residents and companies. Overall, the impacts of the flood event in 2013 were manifold. The study reveals that flood-affected residents suffered from a large range of impacts, among which mental health and supply problems were perceived more seriously than financial losses. The most frequent damage type among affected companies was business interruption. This demonstrates that the current scientific focus on direct (financial) damage is insufficient to describe the overall impacts and severity of flood events. The case further demonstrates that procedures and standards for impact data collection in Germany are widely missing. Present impact data in Germany are fragmentary, heterogeneous, incomplete and difficult to access. In order to fulfil, for example, the monitoring and reporting requirements of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 that was adopted in March 2015 in Sendai, Japan, more efforts on impact data collection are needed.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-16-1519-2016
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2016
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  • 4
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    Flash floods versus river floods – a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviour
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2020
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 20, No. 4 ( 2020-04-14), p. 999-1023
    Details
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 4 ( 2020-04-14), p. 999-1023
    Abstract: Abstract. River floods are among the most damaging natural hazards that frequently occur in Germany. Flooding causes high economic losses and impacts many residents. In 2016, several southern German municipalities were hit by flash floods after unexpectedly severe heavy rainfall, while in 2013 widespread river flooding had occurred. This study investigates and compares the psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods and potential consequences for precautionary behaviour. Data were collected using computer-aided telephone interviews that were conducted among flood-affected households around 9 months after each damaging event. This study applies Bayesian statistics and negative binomial regressions to test the suitability of psychological indicators to predict the precaution motivation of individuals. The results show that it is not the particular flood type but rather the severity and local impacts of the event that are crucial for the different, and potentially negative, impacts on mental health. According to the used data, however, predictions of the individual precaution motivation should not be based on the derived psychological indicators – i.e. coping appraisal, threat appraisal, burden and evasion – since their explanatory power was generally low and results are, for the most part, non-significant. Only burden reveals a significant positive relation to planned precaution regarding weak flash floods. In contrast to weak flash floods and river floods, the perceived threat of strong flash floods is significantly lower although feelings of burden and lower coping appraisals are more pronounced. Further research is needed to better include psychological assessment procedures and to focus on alternative data sources regarding floods and the connected precaution motivation of affected residents.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
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  • 5
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    The object-specific flood damage database HOWAS 21
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2020
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 20, No. 9 ( 2020-09-22), p. 2503-2519
    Details
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 9 ( 2020-09-22), p. 2503-2519
    Abstract: Abstract. The Flood Damage Database HOWAS 21 contains object-specific flood damage data resulting from fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flooding. The datasets incorporate various variables of flood hazard, exposure, vulnerability and direct tangible damage at properties from several economic sectors. The main purpose of development of HOWAS 21 was to support forensic flood analysis and the derivation of flood damage models. HOWAS 21 was first developed for Germany and currently almost exclusively contains datasets from Germany. However, its scope has recently been enlarged with the aim to serve as an international flood damage database; e.g. its web application is now available in German and English. This paper presents the recent advancements of HOWAS 21 and highlights exemplary analyses to demonstrate the use of HOWAS 21 flood damage data. The data applications indicate a large potential of the database for fostering a better understanding and estimation of the consequences of flooding.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
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  • 6
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    New insights into flood warning reception and emergency response by affected parties
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2017
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 17, No. 12 ( 2017-11-29), p. 2075-2092
    Details
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 17, No. 12 ( 2017-11-29), p. 2075-2092
    Abstract: Abstract. Flood damage can be mitigated if the parties at risk are reached by flood warnings and if they know how to react appropriately. To gain more knowledge about warning reception and emergency response of private households and companies, surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany. Despite pronounced regional differences, the results show a clear overall picture: in 2002, early warnings did not work well; e.g. many households (27 %) and companies (45 %) stated that they had not received any flood warnings. Additionally, the preparedness of private households and companies was low in 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. After the 2002 flood, many initiatives were launched and investments undertaken to improve flood risk management, including early warnings and an emergency response in Germany. In 2013, only a small share of the affected households (5 %) and companies (3 %) were not reached by any warnings. Additionally, private households and companies were better prepared. For instance, the share of companies which have an emergency plan in place has increased from 10 % in 2002 to 34 % in 2013. However, there is still room for improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication. The challenge is to continuously maintain and advance an integrated early warning and emergency response system even without the occurrence of extreme floods.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-17-2075-2017
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2017
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  • 7
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    Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2020
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 20, No. 11 ( 2020-11-09), p. 2997-3017
    Details
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 11 ( 2020-11-09), p. 2997-3017
    Abstract: Abstract. Effective flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, available flood damage estimates are still characterized by significant levels of uncertainty, questioning the capacity of flood damage models to depict real damages. With a joint effort of eight international research groups, the objective of this study was to compare, in a blind-validation test, the performances of different models for the assessment of the direct flood damage to the residential sector at the building level (i.e. microscale). The test consisted of a common flood case study characterized by high availability of hazard and building data but with undisclosed information on observed losses in the implementation stage of the models. The nine selected models were chosen in order to guarantee a good mastery of the models by the research teams, variety of the modelling approaches, and heterogeneity of the original calibration context in relation to both hazard and vulnerability features. By avoiding possible biases in model implementation, this blind comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations, especially regarding the potentials of local and multivariable models. From another perspective, the exercise allowed us to increase awareness of strengths and limits of flood damage modelling, which are summarized in the paper in the form of take-home messages from a modeller's perspective.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
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  • 8
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    Damage assessment in Braunsbach 2016: data collection and analysis for an improved understanding of damaging processes during flash floods
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2017
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 17, No. 12 ( 2017-12-06), p. 2163-2179
    Details
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 17, No. 12 ( 2017-12-06), p. 2163-2179
    Abstract: Abstract. Flash floods are caused by intense rainfall events and represent an insufficiently understood phenomenon in Germany. As a result of higher precipitation intensities, flash floods might occur more frequently in future. In combination with changing land use patterns and urbanisation, damage mitigation, insurance and risk management in flash-flood-prone regions are becoming increasingly important. However, a better understanding of damage caused by flash floods requires ex post collection of relevant but yet sparsely available information for research. At the end of May 2016, very high and concentrated rainfall intensities led to severe flash floods in several southern German municipalities. The small town of Braunsbach stood as a prime example of the devastating potential of such events. Eight to ten days after the flash flood event, damage assessment and data collection were conducted in Braunsbach by investigating all affected buildings and their surroundings. To record and store the data on site, the open-source software bundle KoBoCollect was used as an efficient and easy way to gather information. Since the damage driving factors of flash floods are expected to differ from those of riverine flooding, a post-hoc data analysis was performed, aiming to identify the influence of flood processes and building attributes on damage grades, which reflect the extent of structural damage. Data analyses include the application of random forest, a random general linear model and multinomial logistic regression as well as the construction of a local impact map to reveal influences on the damage grades. Further, a Spearman's Rho correlation matrix was calculated. The results reveal that the damage driving factors of flash floods differ from those of riverine floods to a certain extent. The exposition of a building in flow direction shows an especially strong correlation with the damage grade and has a high predictive power within the constructed damage models. Additionally, the results suggest that building materials as well as various building aspects, such as the existence of a shop window and the surroundings, might have an effect on the resulting damage. To verify and confirm the outcomes as well as to support future mitigation strategies, risk management and planning, more comprehensive and systematic data collection is necessary.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2017
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  • 9
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    More than heavy rain turning into fast-flowing water – a landscape perspective on the 2021 Eifel floods
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2022
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 22, No. 6 ( 2022-06-02), p. 1845-1856
    Details
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 22, No. 6 ( 2022-06-02), p. 1845-1856
    Abstract: Abstract. Rapidly evolving floods are rare but powerful drivers of landscape reorganisation that have severe and long-lasting impacts on both the functions of a landscape’s subsystems and the affected society. The July 2021 flood that particularly hit several river catchments of the Eifel region in western Germany and Belgium was a drastic example. While media and scientists highlighted the meteorological and hydrological aspects of this flood, it was not just the rising water levels in the main valleys that posed a hazard, caused damage, and drove environmental reorganisation. Instead, the concurrent coupling of landscape elements and the wood, sediment, and debris carried by the fast-flowing water made this flood so devastating and difficult to predict. Because more intense floods are able to interact with more landscape components, they at times reveal rare non-linear feedbacks, which may be hidden during smaller events due to their high thresholds of initiation. Here, we briefly review the boundary conditions of the 14–15 July 2021 flood and discuss the emerging features that made this event different from previous floods. We identify hillslope processes, aspects of debris mobilisation, the legacy of sustained human land use, and emerging process connections and feedbacks as critical non-hydrological dimensions of the flood. With this landscape scale perspective, we develop requirements for improved future event anticipation, mitigation, and fundamental system understanding.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
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  • 10
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    Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2023
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 23, No. 2 ( 2023-03-03), p. 973-990
    Details
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 23, No. 2 ( 2023-03-03), p. 973-990
    Abstract: Abstract. In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe and 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling into question their flood forecasting, warning and response system (FFWRS). Data from an online survey (n=1315) reveal that 35 % of the respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Of those who were warned, 85 % did not expect very severe flooding and 46 % reported a lack of situational knowledge on protective behaviour. Regression analysis reveals that this knowledge is influenced not only by gender and flood experience but also by the content and the source of the warning message. The results are complemented by analyses of media reports and official warnings that show shortcomings in providing adequate recommendations to people at risk. Still, the share of people who did not report any emergency response is low and comparable to other flood events. However, the perceived effectiveness of the protective behaviour was low and mainly compromised by high water levels and the perceived level of surprise about the flood magnitude. Good situational knowledge and a higher number of previously experienced floods were linked to performing more effective loss-reducing action. Dissemination of warnings, clearer communication of the expected flood magnitude and recommendations on adequate responses to a severe flood, particularly with regard to flash and pluvial floods, are seen as major entry points for improving the FFWRS in Germany.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2023
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