GLORIA

GEOMAR Library Ocean Research Information Access

X

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2013
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 13, No. 6 ( 2013-03-15), p. 3063-3085
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 6 ( 2013-03-15), p. 3063-3085
    Abstract: Abstract. Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (±1 standard deviation) in RFs of ±17%. Three different radiation schemes were used – we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of ±10%. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3%. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of ±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44±12%), nitrogen oxides (31 ± 9%), carbon monoxide (15 ± 3%) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 ± 2%); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m−2 DU−1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m−2; relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Corrigendum to "Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)" published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090, 2013
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2013
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 13, No. 10 ( 2013-05-29), p. 5401-5402
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 10 ( 2013-05-29), p. 5401-5402
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-13-5401-2013
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2013
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 13, No. 5 ( 2013-03-05), p. 2563-2587
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 5 ( 2013-03-05), p. 2563-2587
    Abstract: Abstract. Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8 ± 1.6 yr (9.3 ± 0.9 yr when only including selected models), lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 ± 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5 ± 10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with differences in modelled temperature and stratospheric ozone changes. Finally, through perturbation experiments we calculated an OH feedback factor (F) of 1.24 from present day conditions (1.50 from 2100 RCP8.5 conditions) and a climate feedback on methane lifetime of 0.33 ± 0.13 yr K−1, on average. Models that did not include interactive stratospheric ozone effects on photolysis showed a stronger sensitivity to climate, as they did not account for negative effects of climate-driven stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric OH, which would have partly offset the overall OH/methane lifetime response to climate change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2013
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 13, No. 4 ( 2013-02-21), p. 2063-2090
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 4 ( 2013-02-21), p. 2063-2090
    Abstract: Abstract. Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337 ± 23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is ~30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: −4% (−16%) for RCP2.6, 2% (−7%) for RCP4.5, 1% (−9%) for RCP6.0, and 7% (18%) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40–150% greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A unified approach to ozone budget specifications and a rigorous investigation of the factors that drive tropospheric ozone is recommended to help future studies attribute ozone changes and inter-model differences more clearly.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Preindustrial to present-day changes in tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2013
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 13, No. 10 ( 2013-05-27), p. 5277-5298
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 10 ( 2013-05-27), p. 5277-5298
    Abstract: Abstract. We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the change in global mean tropospheric CO and NOx burdens (ΔCO/ΔNOx, approximately represents changes in OH sinks versus changes in OH sources) in the models, pointing to a need for better constraints on natural precursor emissions and on the chemical mechanisms in the current generation of chemistry-climate models. For the 1980 to 2000 period, we find that climate warming and a slight increase in mean OH (3.5 ± 2.2%) leads to a 4.3 ± 1.9% decrease in the methane lifetime. Analysing sensitivity simulations performed by 10 models, we find that preindustrial to present-day climate change decreased the methane lifetime by about four months, representing a negative feedback on the climate system. Further, we analysed attribution experiments performed by a subset of models relative to 2000 conditions with only one precursor at a time set to 1860 levels. We find that global mean OH increased by 46.4 ± 12.2% in response to preindustrial to present-day anthropogenic NOx emission increases, and decreased by 17.3 ± 2.3%, 7.6 ± 1.5%, and 3.1 ± 3.0% due to methane burden, and anthropogenic CO, and NMVOC emissions increases, respectively.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2006
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research Vol. 111, No. D19 ( 2006-10-14)
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 111, No. D19 ( 2006-10-14)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2006JD007100
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033040-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094104-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2130824-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016813-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016810-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2403298-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161666-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161667-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161665-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094268-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016804-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094181-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094219-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094167-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2220777-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094197-0
    SSG: 16,13
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): overview and description of models, simulations and climate diagnostics
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2013
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development Vol. 6, No. 1 ( 2013-02-07), p. 179-206
    Details
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 6, No. 1 ( 2013-02-07), p. 179-206
    Abstract: Abstract. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) consists of a series of time slice experiments targeting the long-term changes in atmospheric composition between 1850 and 2100, with the goal of documenting composition changes and the associated radiative forcing. In this overview paper, we introduce the ACCMIP activity, the various simulations performed (with a requested set of 14) and the associated model output. The 16 ACCMIP models have a wide range of horizontal and vertical resolutions, vertical extent, chemistry schemes and interaction with radiation and clouds. While anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were specified for all time slices in the ACCMIP protocol, it is found that the natural emissions are responsible for a significant range across models, mostly in the case of ozone precursors. The analysis of selected present-day climate diagnostics (precipitation, temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind) reveals biases consistent with state-of-the-art climate models. The model-to-model comparison of changes in temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind between 1850 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2100 indicates mostly consistent results. However, models that are clear outliers are different enough from the other models to significantly affect their simulation of atmospheric chemistry.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2006
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research Vol. 111, No. D8 ( 2006)
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 111, No. D8 ( 2006)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006338
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033040-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094104-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2130824-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016813-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016810-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2403298-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161666-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161667-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161665-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094268-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016804-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094181-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094219-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094167-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2220777-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094197-0
    SSG: 16,13
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Evaluation of ACCMIP outgoing longwave radiation from tropospheric ozone using TES satellite observations
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2013
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 13, No. 8 ( 2013-04-18), p. 4057-4072
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 8 ( 2013-04-18), p. 4057-4072
    Abstract: Abstract. We use simultaneous observations of tropospheric ozone and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) to evaluate model tropospheric ozone and its effect on OLR simulated by a suite of chemistry-climate models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean of ACCMIP models show a persistent but modest tropospheric ozone low bias (5–20 ppb) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and modest high bias (5–10 ppb) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) relative to TES ozone for 2005–2010. These ozone biases have a significant impact on the OLR. Using TES instantaneous radiative kernels (IRK), we show that the ACCMIP ensemble mean tropospheric ozone low bias leads up to 120 mW m−2 OLR high bias locally but zonally compensating errors reduce the global OLR high bias to 39 ± 41 m Wm−2 relative to TES data. We show that there is a correlation (R2 = 0.59) between the magnitude of the ACCMIP OLR bias and the deviation of the ACCMIP preindustrial to present day (1750–2010) ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the ensemble ozone RF mean. However, this correlation is driven primarily by models whose absolute OLR bias from tropospheric ozone exceeds 100 m Wm−2. Removing these models leads to a mean ozone radiative forcing of 394 ± 42 m Wm−2. The mean is about the same and the standard deviation is about 30% lower than an ensemble ozone RF of 384 ± 60 m Wm−2 derived from 14 of the 16 ACCMIP models reported in a companion ACCMIP study. These results point towards a profitable direction of combining satellite observations and chemistry-climate model simulations to reduce uncertainty in ozone radiative forcing.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry–climate modeling of surface ozone
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2015
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 15, No. 18 ( 2015-09-25), p. 10581-10596
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 15, No. 18 ( 2015-09-25), p. 10581-10596
    Abstract: Abstract. We test the current generation of global chemistry–climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × 1° grid cells, allowing commensurate model–measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (~ 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfully matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (~ 25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 ppb, and the observed seasonal range (~ 21 ppb) is underestimated by about 5 ppb except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 ppb. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 % of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The models also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 ppb for larger-sized episodes. We conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...