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  • 1
    In: Global Change Biology, Wiley, Vol. 28, No. 22 ( 2022-11), p. 6586-6601
    Abstract: Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution projections are primarily used to understand the scope of potential change—rather than accurately predict specific outcomes—it is nonetheless essential to understand where and why projections can give implausible results and to identify which processes contribute to uncertainty. Here, we use a series of simulated species distributions, an ensemble of 252 species distribution models, and an ensemble of three regional ocean climate projections, to isolate the influences of uncertainty from earth system model spread and from ecological modeling. The simulations encompass marine species with different functional traits and ecological preferences to more broadly address resource manager and fishery stakeholder needs, and provide a simulated true state with which to evaluate projections. We present our results relative to the degree of environmental extrapolation from historical conditions, which helps facilitate interpretation by ecological modelers working in diverse systems. We found uncertainty associated with species distribution models can exceed uncertainty generated from diverging earth system models (up to 70% of total uncertainty by 2100), and that this result was consistent across species traits. Species distribution model uncertainty increased through time and was primarily related to the degree to which models extrapolated into novel environmental conditions but moderated by how well models captured the underlying dynamics driving species distributions. The predictive power of simulated species distribution models remained relatively high in the first 30 years of projections, in alignment with the time period in which stakeholders make strategic decisions based on climate information. By understanding sources of uncertainty, and how they change at different forecast horizons, we provide recommendations for projecting species distribution models under global climate change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1354-1013 , 1365-2486
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020313-5
    SSG: 12
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  • 2
    In: Fish and Fisheries, Wiley, Vol. 24, No. 1 ( 2023-01), p. 71-92
    Abstract: Many marine species are shifting their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions, posing significant challenges and risks for fisheries management. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to project future species distributions in the face of a changing climate. Information to fit SDMs generally comes from two main sources: fishery‐independent (scientific surveys) and fishery‐dependent (commercial catch) data. A concern with fishery‐dependent data is that fishing locations are not independent of the underlying species abundance, potentially biasing predictions of species distributions. However, resources for fishery‐independent surveys are increasingly limited; therefore, it is critical we understand the strengths and limitations of SDMs developed from fishery‐dependent data. We used a simulation approach to evaluate the potential for fishery‐dependent data to inform SDMs and abundance estimates and quantify the bias resulting from different fishery‐dependent sampling scenarios in the California Current System (CCS). We then evaluated the ability of the SDMs to project changes in the spatial distribution of species over time and compare the time scale over which model performance degrades between the different sampling scenarios and as a function of climate bias and novelty. Our results show that data generated from fishery‐dependent sampling can still result in SDMs with high predictive skill several decades into the future, given specific forms of preferential sampling which result in low climate bias and novelty. Therefore, fishery‐dependent data may be able to supplement information from surveys that are reduced or eliminated for budgetary reasons to project species distributions into the future.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1467-2960 , 1467-2979
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2024569-5
    SSG: 21,3
    SSG: 12
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  • 3
    In: Scientific Data, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 5, No. 1 ( 2018-10-16)
    Abstract: Larval fishes are a useful metric of marine ecosystem state and change, as well as species-specific patterns in phenology. The high level of taxonomic expertise required to identify larval fishes to species level, and the considerable effort required to collect samples, make these data very valuable. Here we collate 3178 samples of larval fish assemblages, from 12 research projects from 1983-present, from temperate and subtropical Australian pelagic waters. This forms a benchmark for the larval fish assemblage for the region, and includes recent monitoring of larval fishes at coastal oceanographic reference stations. Comparing larval fishes among projects can be problematic due to differences in taxonomic resolution, and identifying all taxa to species is challenging, so this study reports a standard taxonomic resolution (of 218 taxa) for this region to help guide future research. This larval fish database serves as a data repository for surveys of larval fish assemblages in the region, and can contribute to analysis of climate-driven changes in the location and timing of the spawning of marine fishes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2052-4463
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2775191-0
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  • 4
    In: Ecography, Wiley, Vol. 44, No. 6 ( 2021-06), p. 832-844
    Abstract: Accurate forecasts of how animals respond to climate‐driven environmental change are needed to prepare for future redistributions, however, it is unclear which temporal scales of environmental variability give rise to predictability of species distributions. We examined the temporal scales of environmental variability that best predicted spatial abundance of a marine predator, swordfish Xiphias gladius , in the California Current. To understand which temporal scales of environmental variability provide biological predictability, we decomposed physical variables into three components: a monthly climatology (long‐term average), a low frequency component representing interannual variability, and a high frequency (sub‐annual) component that captures ephemeral features. We then assessed each component's contribution to predictive skill for spatially‐explicit swordfish catch. The monthly climatology was the primary source of predictability in swordfish spatial catch, reflecting the spatial distribution associated with seasonal movements in this region. Importantly, we found that the low frequency component (capturing interannual variability) provided significant skill in predicting anomalous swordfish distribution and catch, which the monthly climatology cannot. The addition of the high frequency component added only minor improvement in predictability. By examining models' ability to predict species distribution anomalies, we assess the models in a way that is consistent with the goal of distribution forecasts – to predict deviations of species distributions from their average historical locations. The critical importance of low frequency climate variability in describing anomalous swordfish distributions and catch matches the target timescales of physical climate forecasts, suggesting potential for skillful ecological forecasts of swordfish distributions across short (seasonal) and long (climate) timescales. Understanding sources of prediction skill for species environmental responses gives confidence in our ability to accurately predict species distributions and abundance, and to know which responses are likely less predictable, under future climate change. This is important as climate change continues to cause an unprecedented redistribution of life on Earth.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0906-7590 , 1600-0587
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2024917-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1112659-0
    SSG: 12
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Frontiers Media SA ; 2020
    In:  Frontiers in Marine Science Vol. 7 ( 2020-7-29)
    In: Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 7 ( 2020-7-29)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2296-7745
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2757748-X
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  • 6
    In: Progress in Oceanography, Elsevier BV, Vol. 211 ( 2023-02), p. 102973-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0079-6611
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1497436-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 4062-9
    SSG: 21,3
    SSG: 14
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Frontiers Media SA ; 2021
    In:  Frontiers in Marine Science Vol. 8 ( 2021-3-19)
    In: Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 8 ( 2021-3-19)
    Abstract: Time-area closures are a valuable tool for mitigating fisheries bycatch. There is increasing recognition that dynamic closures, which have boundaries that vary across space and time, can be more effective than static closures at protecting mobile species in dynamic environments. We created a management strategy evaluation to compare static and dynamic closures in a simulated fishery based on the California drift gillnet swordfish fishery, with closures aimed at reducing bycatch of leatherback turtles. We tested eight operating models that varied swordfish and leatherback distributions, and within each evaluated the performance of three static and five dynamic closure strategies. We repeated this under 20 and 50% simulated observer coverage to alter the data available for closure creation. We found that static closures can be effective for reducing bycatch of species with more geographically associated distributions, but to avoid redistributing bycatch the static areas closed should be based on potential (not just observed) bycatch. Only dynamic closures were effective at reducing bycatch for more dynamic leatherback distributions, and they generally reduced bycatch risk more than they reduced target catch. Dynamic closures were less likely to redistribute fishing into rarely fished areas, by leaving open pockets of lower risk habitat, but these closures were often fragmented which would create practical challenges for fishers and managers and require a mobile fleet. Given our simulation’s catch rates, 20% observer coverage was sufficient to create useful closures and increasing coverage to 50% added only minor improvement in closure performance. Even strict static or dynamic closures reduced leatherback bycatch by only 30–50% per season, because the simulated leatherback distributions were broad and open areas contained considerable bycatch risk. Perfect knowledge of the leatherback distribution provided an additional 5–15% bycatch reduction over a dynamic closure with realistic predictive accuracy. This moderate level of bycatch reduction highlights the limitations of redistributing fishing effort to reduce bycatch of broadly distributed and rarely encountered species, and indicates that, for these species, spatial management may work best when used with other bycatch mitigation approaches. We recommend future research explores methods for considering model uncertainty in the spatial and temporal resolution of dynamic closures.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2296-7745
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2757748-X
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  • 8
    In: Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 8 ( 2021-6-30)
    Abstract: One of the significant challenges to using information and ideas generated through ecosystem models and analyses for ecosystem-based fisheries management is the disconnect between modeling and management needs. Here we present a case study from the U.S. West Coast, the stakeholder review of NOAA’s annual ecosystem status report for the California Current Ecosystem established by the Pacific Fisheries Management Council’s Fisheries Ecosystem Plan, showcasing a process to identify management priorities that require information from ecosystem models and analyses. We then assess potential ecosystem models and analyses that could help address the identified policy concerns. We screened stakeholder comments and found 17 comments highlighting the need for ecosystem-level synthesis. Policy needs for ecosystem science included: (1) assessment of how the environment affects productivity of target species to improve forecasts of biomass and reference points required for setting harvest limits, (2) assessment of shifts in the spatial distribution of target stocks and protected species to anticipate changes in availability and the potential for interactions between target and protected species, (3) identification of trophic interactions to better assess tradeoffs in the management of forage species between the diet needs of dependent predators, the resilience of fishing communities, and maintenance of the forage species themselves, and (4) synthesis of how the environment affects efficiency and profitability in fishing communities, either directly via extreme events (e.g., storms) or indirectly via climate-driven changes in target species availability. We conclude by exemplifying an existing management process established on the U.S. West Coast that could be used to enable the structured, iterative, and interactive communication between managers, stakeholders, and modelers that is key to refining existing ecosystem models and analyses for management use.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2296-7745
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2757748-X
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  • 9
    In: Journal of Applied Ecology, Wiley, Vol. 57, No. 3 ( 2020-03), p. 502-513
    Abstract: Time‐area closures are an important tool for reducing fisheries bycatch, but their effectiveness and economic impact can be influenced by the changes in species distributions. For fisheries targeting highly mobile species, the economic impact of a closure may by highly dynamic, depending on the current suitability of the closed area for the target species. We present an analysis to quantify the fine‐scale economic impact of time‐area closures: the ‘lost economic opportunity’, which is the percentage of total potential profit for an entire fishing season that occurs within and during a time‐area closure. Our analysis integrates a spatially explicit and environment‐informed catch model with a utility model that quantifies fishing revenues and costs, and thus incorporates a dynamic target species distribution in the estimated economic impact of a closure. We demonstrate this approach by evaluating the economic impact of the Loggerhead Conservation Area (LCA) on California's drift gillnet swordfish Xiphias gladius fishery. The lost economic opportunity due to the LCA time‐area closure ranged from 0% to 6% per season, with variation due to port location and trip duration, as well as inter‐annual changes in swordfish distribution. This increased by 40%–90% when a seasonally varying swordfish price was considered. There was a clear signal in economic impact associated with a shift from warm to cool conditions in the California Current following the 1998 El Niño, with increased lost economic opportunity from 1999. This signal was due to higher swordfish catch inside the LCA during the cool phase, associated with increased water column mixing, and due to higher catches outside the LCA in the warmer phase, associated with increased sea‐surface temperature. Synthesis and applications. We found small economic impact from a fishery closure, but with meaningful inter‐annual variation due to environmental change and the dynamic distribution of a target species. Our approach could be used to help determine the timing of closures, simulate impacts of proposed closures and, more generally, assess some economic consequences of climate‐induced shifts in species’ ranges.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0021-8901 , 1365-2664
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020408-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 410405-5
    SSG: 12
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  • 10
    In: Fisheries Oceanography, Wiley, Vol. 30, No. 4 ( 2021-07), p. 437-454
    Abstract: Many fish species are shifting spatial distributions in response to climate change, but projecting these shifts and measuring their impact at fine scales are challenging. We present a simulation that projects change in fishery landings due to spatial distribution shifts, by combining regional ocean and biogeochemical models (forced by three earth system models, ESMs: GFDL‐ESM2M, HadGEM2‐ES, IPSL‐CM5A‐MR), correlative models for species distribution and port‐level landings, and a simulation framework which provides realistic values for species abundance and fishery conditions using an historical “reference period”. We demonstrate this approach for the northern subpopulation of Pacific sardine, an iconic commercial species for the U.S. West Coast. We found a northward shift in sardine landings (based on the northern subpopulation's habitat suitability), with projected declines at southern ports (20%–50% decline by 2080) and an increase (up to 50%) or no change at northern ports, and this was consistent across the three ESMs. Total sardine landings were more uncertain, with HadGEM2 indicating a 20% decline from 2000 to 15 levels by 2070 (a rate of 170 mt/y), IPSL a 10% increase (115 mt/y), and GFDL an 15% increase by the year ~2050 followed by a sharp decrease. The ESMs also differed in their projected change to the timing of the fishing season and frequency of fishery closures. Our simulation also identified key constraints on future landings that can be targeted by more tactical assessment; these included the seasonality of quota allocation and the abundance of other species in the catch portfolio.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1054-6006 , 1365-2419
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2021
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020300-7
    SSG: 21,3
    SSG: 12
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