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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Extratropics
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2010
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research Vol. 115 ( 2010-10-23)
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 115 ( 2010-10-23)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2010JD013884
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2010
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  • 2
    Online Resource
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    Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century: impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2011
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 11, No. 15 ( 2011-08-01), p. 7533-7545
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 11, No. 15 ( 2011-08-01), p. 7533-7545
    Abstract: Abstract. Monthly averaged surface erythemal solar irradiance (UV-Ery) for local noon from 1960 to 2100 has been derived using radiative transfer calculations and projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate models (CCM), as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC. Our calculations show the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on erythemal irradiance. In addition, we investigate UV-Ery changes caused by climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter include effects of both stratospheric ozone and cloud changes. The derived estimates provide a global picture of the likely changes in erythemal irradiance during the 21st century. Uncertainties arise from the assumed scenarios, different parameterizations – particularly of cloud effects on UV-Ery – and the spread in the CCM projections. The calculations suggest that relative to 1980, annually mean UV-Ery in the 2090s will be on average ~12 % lower at high latitudes in both hemispheres, ~3 % lower at mid latitudes, and marginally higher (~1 %) in the tropics. The largest reduction (~16 %) is projected for Antarctica in October. Cloud effects are responsible for 2–3 % of the reduction in UV-Ery at high latitudes, but they slightly moderate it at mid-latitudes (~1 %). The year of return of erythemal irradiance to values of certain milestones (1965 and 1980) depends largely on the return of column ozone to the corresponding levels and is associated with large uncertainties mainly due to the spread of the model projections. The inclusion of cloud effects in the calculations has only a small effect of the return years. At mid and high latitudes, changes in clouds and stratospheric ozone transport by global circulation changes due to greenhouse gases will sustain the erythemal irradiance at levels below those in 1965, despite the removal of ozone depleting substances. At northern high latitudes (60°–90°), the projected decreases in cloud transmittance towards the end of the 21st century will reduce the yearly average surface erythemal irradiance by ~5 % with respect to the 1960s.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-11-7533-2011
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2011
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2007
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research Vol. 112, No. D16 ( 2007-08-21)
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 112, No. D16 ( 2007-08-21)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2006JD008332
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2007
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2010
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 10, No. 19 ( 2010-10-07), p. 9451-9472
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 10, No. 19 ( 2010-10-07), p. 9451-9472
    Abstract: Abstract. Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODS or GHG concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates) and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery). The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG-induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where CO2-induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery is projected to not likely have occurred by 2100 even though ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively). In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the midlatitude lower stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease in ozone, first a decrease in ozone is simulated from 1960 to 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase through the 21st century. Ozone in the midlatitude lower stratosphere returns to 1980 levels by ~2045 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and by ~2055 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the return of total column ozone to its 1980 level. The latest return of total column ozone is projected to occur over Antarctica (~2045–2060) whereas it is not likely that full ozone recovery is reached by the end of the 21st century in this region. Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels well before polar stratospheric halogen loading does so (~2025–2030 for total column ozone, cf. 2050–2070 for Cly+60×Bry) and it is likely that full recovery of total column ozone from the effects of ODSs has occurred by ~2035. In contrast to the Antarctic, by 2100 Arctic total column ozone is projected to be above 1960 levels, but not in the fixed GHG simulation, indicating that climate change plays a significant role.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-10-9451-2010
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-10-9451-2010-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2010
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2006
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research Vol. 111, No. D22 ( 2006-11-23)
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 111, No. D22 ( 2006-11-23)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2006JD007327
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2006
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  • 6
    Online Resource
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    Review of the formulation of present-generation stratospheric chemistry-climate models and associated external forcings
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2010
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research Vol. 115 ( 2010-08-14)
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 115 ( 2010-08-14)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2009JD013728
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2010
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2220777-6
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    SSG: 16,13
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Clear sky UV simulations for the 21st century based on ozone and temperature projections from Chemistry-Climate Models
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2009
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 9, No. 4 ( 2009-02-16), p. 1165-1172
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 9, No. 4 ( 2009-02-16), p. 1165-1172
    Abstract: Abstract. We have estimated changes in surface solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation under cloud free conditions in the 21st century based on simulations of 11 coupled Chemistry-Climate Models (CCMs). The total ozone columns and vertical profiles of ozone and temperature projected from CCMs were used as input to a radiative transfer model in order to calculate the corresponding erythemal irradiance levels. Time series of monthly erythemal irradiance received at the surface during local noon are presented for the period 1960 to 2100. Starting from the first decade of the 21st century, the surface erythemal irradiance decreases globally as a result of the projected stratospheric ozone recovery at rates that are larger in the first half of the 21st century and smaller towards its end. This decreasing tendency varies with latitude, being more pronounced over areas where stratospheric ozone has been depleted the most after 1980. Between 2000 and 2100 surface erythemal irradiance is projected to decrease over midlatitudes by 5 to 15%, while at the southern high latitudes the decrease is twice as much. In this study we have not included effects from changes in cloudiness, surface reflectivity and tropospheric aerosol loading, which will likely be affected in the future due to climate change. Consequently, over some areas the actual changes in future UV radiation may be different depending on the evolution of these parameters.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-9-1165-2009
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2009
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  • 8
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    Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2011
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 11, No. 2 ( 2011-01-20), p. 599-609
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 11, No. 2 ( 2011-01-20), p. 599-609
    Abstract: Abstract. Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climate models with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and with anthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observed stratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection and attribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozone depleting substances and to natural forcings is detectable in observations, but the total column ozone response to greenhouse gas changes is not separately detectable. In the middle and upper stratosphere, simulated and observed SBUV/SAGE ozone changes are broadly consistent, and separate anthropogenic and natural responses are detectable in observations. The influence of ozone depleting substances and natural forcings can also be detected separately in observed lower stratospheric temperature, and the magnitudes of the simulated and observed responses to these forcings and to greenhouse gas changes are found to be consistent. In the mid and upper stratosphere the simulated natural and combined anthropogenic responses are detectable and consistent with observations, but the influences of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances could not be separately detected in our analysis.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-11-599-2011
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2011
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  • 9
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    Chemistry–Climate Model Simulations of Twenty-First Century Stratospheric Climate and Circulation Changes
    American Meteorological Society ; 2010
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 23, No. 20 ( 2010-10-15), p. 5349-5374
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 23, No. 20 ( 2010-10-15), p. 5349-5374
    Abstract: The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry–climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 ± 0.07 K decade−1 at 10 hPa), ozone recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and, on average, changes from 0.8 to 0.48 K decade−1 at 100 hPa as the rate of recovery declines from the first to the second half of the century. In the winter northern polar lower stratosphere the increased radiative cooling from the growing abundance of GHGs is, in most models, balanced by adiabatic warming from stronger polar downwelling. In the Antarctic lower stratosphere the models simulate an increase in low temperature extremes required for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, but the positive trend is decreasing over the twenty-first century in all models. In the Arctic, none of the models simulates a statistically significant increase in Arctic PSCs throughout the twenty-first century. The subtropical jets accelerate in response to climate change and the ozone recovery produces a westward acceleration of the lower-stratospheric wind over the Antarctic during summer, though this response is sensitive to the rate of recovery projected by the models. There is a strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation throughout the depth of the stratosphere, which reduces the mean age of air nearly everywhere at a rate of about 0.05 yr decade−1 in those models with this diagnostic. On average, the annual mean tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere (∼70 hPa) increases by almost 2% decade−1, with 59% of this trend forced by the parameterized orographic gravity wave drag in the models. This is a consequence of the eastward acceleration of the subtropical jets, which increases the upward flux of (parameterized) momentum reaching the lower stratosphere in these latitudes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3404.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2010
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  • 10
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    The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2010
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 10, No. 19 ( 2010-10-07), p. 9473-9486
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 10, No. 19 ( 2010-10-07), p. 9473-9486
    Abstract: Abstract. Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2010
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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