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  • Romine, Glen S.  (5)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Impacts of Targeted AERI and Doppler Lidar Wind Retrievals on Short-Term Forecasts of the Initiation and Early Evolution of Thunderstorms
    American Meteorological Society ; 2019
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 147, No. 4 ( 2019-04-01), p. 1149-1170
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 147, No. 4 ( 2019-04-01), p. 1149-1170
    Abstract: The ability of Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) and Doppler lidar (DL) wind profile observations to impact short-term forecasts of convection is explored by assimilating retrievals into a partially cycled convection-allowing ensemble analysis and forecast system. AERI and DL retrievals were obtained over 12 days using a mobile platform that was deployed in the preconvective and near-storm environments of thunderstorms during the afternoon in the U.S. Great Plains. The observation locations were guided by real-time ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) fields. AERI retrievals of temperature and dewpoint and DL retrievals of the horizontal wind components were assimilated into a control experiment that only assimilated conventional observations. Using the fractions skill score within 25-km neighborhoods, it is found that the assimilation of the AERI and DL retrievals results in far more times when the forecasts are improved than degraded in the 6-h forecast period. However, statistical confidence in the improvements often is not high and little to no relationships between the ESA fields and the actual changes in spread and skill is found. But, the focus on convective initiation and early convective evolution—a challenging forecast problem—and the fact that frequent improvements were seen despite observations from only one system over a limited period, provides encouragement to continue exploring the benefits of ground-based profilers to supplement the current upper-air observing system for severe weather forecasting applications.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0351.1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    Online Resource
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Sensitivity of Northern Great Plains Convection Forecasts to Upstream and Downstream Forecast Errors
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 145, No. 6 ( 2017-06-01), p. 2141-2163
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 145, No. 6 ( 2017-06-01), p. 2141-2163
    Abstract: The role of earlier forecast errors on subsequent convection forecasts is evaluated for a northern Great Plains severe convective event on 11–12 June 2013 during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) by applying the ensemble-based sensitivity technique to Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model ensemble forecasts with explicit convection. This case was characterized by two distinct modes of convection located 150 km apart in western Nebraska and South Dakota, which formed on either side of an axis of high, lower-tropospheric equivalent potential temperature . Convection forecasts over both regions are found to be sensitive to the position of this axis. The convection in Nebraska is sensitive to the position of the western edge of the axis near an upstream dryline, which modulates the preconvective prior to the diurnal maximum. In contrast, the convection in South Dakota is sensitive to the position of the eastern edge of the axis near a cold front, which also modulates the preconvective in that location. The position of the axis is modulated by the positions of both upstream and downstream mid- to upper-tropospheric potential vorticity anomalies, and can be traced backward in time to the initial conditions. Dropsondes sampling the region prior to convective initiation indicate that ensemble members with better representations of upstream conditions in sensitive regions are associated with better convective forecasts over Nebraska.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0353.1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    Online Resource
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Sensitivity of Central Oklahoma Convection Forecasts to Upstream Potential Vorticity Anomalies during Two Strongly Forced Cases during MPEX
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 143, No. 10 ( 2015-10-01), p. 4064-4087
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 143, No. 10 ( 2015-10-01), p. 4064-4087
    Abstract: The role of upstream subsynoptic forecast errors on forecasts of two different central Oklahoma severe convection events (19 and 31 May 2013) characterized by strong synoptic forcing during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) are evaluated by applying the ensemble-based sensitivity technique to WRF ensemble forecasts with explicit convection. During both cases, the forecast of the timing and intensity of convection over central Oklahoma is modulated by the southward extent of upstream midtropospheric potential vorticity anomalies that are moving through the base of a larger-scale upstream trough but pass by central Oklahoma prior to convective initiation. In addition, the convection forecasts are also sensitive to the position of lower-tropospheric boundaries, such that moving the boundaries in a manner that would lead to increased equivalent potential temperature over central Oklahoma prior to convective initiation leads to more precipitation. Statistical PV inversion and correlation calculations suggest that the midtropospheric PV and near-surface boundary sensitivities are not independent; the winds associated with the PV error can modulate the position of the lower-tropospheric boundary through advection in a manner consistent with the implied sensitivity. As a consequence, it appears that reducing the uncertainty in specific upstream subsynoptic features prior to convective initiation could improve subsequent forecasts of severe convection.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0085.1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    Online Resource
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Impact of Assimilating Dropsonde Observations from MPEX on Ensemble Forecasts of Severe Weather Events
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 144, No. 10 ( 2016-10), p. 3799-3823
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 144, No. 10 ( 2016-10), p. 3799-3823
    Abstract: Over the central Great Plains, mid- to upper-tropospheric weather disturbances often modulate severe storm development. These disturbances frequently pass over the Intermountain West region of the United States during the early morning hours preceding severe weather events. This region has fewer in situ observations of the atmospheric state compared with most other areas of the United States, contributing toward greater uncertainty in forecast initial conditions. Assimilation of supplemental observations is hypothesized to reduce initial condition uncertainty and improve forecasts of high-impact weather. During the spring of 2013, the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) leveraged ensemble-based targeting methods to key in on regions where enhanced observations might reduce mesoscale forecast uncertainty. Observations were obtained with dropsondes released from the NSF/NCAR Gulfstream-V aircraft during the early morning hours preceding 15 severe weather events over areas upstream from anticipated convection. Retrospective data-denial experiments are conducted to evaluate the value of dropsonde observations in improving convection-permitting ensemble forecasts. Results show considerable variation in forecast performance from assimilating dropsonde observations, with a modest but statistically significant improvement, akin to prior targeted observation studies that focused on synoptic-scale prediction. The change in forecast skill with dropsonde information was not sensitive to the skill of the control forecast. Events with large positive impact sampled both the disturbance and adjacent flow, akin to results from past synoptic-scale targeting studies, suggesting that sampling both the disturbance and adjacent flow is necessary regardless of the horizontal scale of the feature of interest.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0407.1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    Online Resource
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Sensitivity of Dryline Convection Forecasts to Upstream Forecast Errors for Two Weakly Forced MPEX Cases
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 145, No. 5 ( 2017-05-01), p. 1831-1852
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 145, No. 5 ( 2017-05-01), p. 1831-1852
    Abstract: The sensitivity of convective forecasts along the Texas dryline to upstream forecast fields at earlier lead times is evaluated for two consecutive days (27–28 May) characterized by no clear synoptic forcing for convection initiation (CI) during the 2013 Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) by applying the ensemble-based sensitivity technique to convection-allowing WRF ensemble forecasts. For both cases, the members with stronger convection are characterized by higher water vapor just above the top of the boundary layer, which is associated with lower convective inhibition (CIN) at the time of CI. Forecast convection is sensitive to the lower-tropospheric water vapor and zonal wind at earlier lead times farther south along the dryline, such that increasing the water vapor and/or making the wind more easterly is associated with more convection. For 28 May, the water vapor along the dryline is also sensitive to the convection that occurs around 0600 UTC, which leads to cold pool–induced surface divergence that subsequently shifts the dryline north or south. Ensemble members that correctly have decreased convection in the Texas Panhandle on 28 May have more accurate forecasts of water vapor and meridional wind with respect to dropwindsondes in the sensitive region 9 h prior to CI compared to members with more extensive convection. Reducing the 0-h water vapor within the sensitive region can suppress convection in members with extensive convection; however, increasing the 0-h water vapor does not lead to more convection in members without convection.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0457.1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
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