GLORIA

GEOMAR Library Ocean Research Information Access

X

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
Filter
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences  (2)
  • Ray, Evan L.  (2)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2022
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 119, No. 15 ( 2022-04-12)
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 119, No. 15 ( 2022-04-12)
    Abstract: Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org/ ) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2113561119
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2019
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 116, No. 48 ( 2019-11-26), p. 24268-24274
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, No. 48 ( 2019-11-26), p. 24268-24274
    Abstract: A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project—integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation—can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1909865116
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...