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  • 1
    In: Malaria Journal, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 19, No. 1 ( 2020-12)
    Abstract: Accurate measures of malaria incidence are essential to track progress and target high-risk populations. While health management information system (HMIS) data provide counts of malaria cases, quantifying the denominator for incidence using these data is challenging because catchment areas and care-seeking behaviours are not well defined. This study’s aim was to estimate malaria incidence using HMIS data by adjusting the population denominator accounting for travel time to the health facility. Methods Outpatient data from two public health facilities in Uganda (Kihihi and Nagongera) over a 3-year period (2011–2014) were used to model the relationship between travel time from patient village of residence (available for each individual) to the facility and the relative probability of attendance using Poisson generalized additive models. Outputs from the model were used to generate a weighted population denominator for each health facility and estimate malaria incidence. Among children aged 6 months to 11 years, monthly HMIS-derived incidence estimates, with and without population denominators weighted by probability of attendance, were compared with gold standard measures of malaria incidence measured in prospective cohorts. Results A total of 48,898 outpatient visits were recorded across the two sites over the study period. HMIS incidence correlated with cohort incidence over time at both study sites (correlation in Kihihi = 0.64, p  〈  0.001; correlation in Nagongera = 0.34, p = 0.045). HMIS incidence measures with denominators unweighted by probability of attendance underestimated cohort incidence aggregated over the 3 years in Kihihi (0.5 cases per person-year (PPY) vs 1.7 cases PPY) and Nagongera (0.3 cases PPY vs 3.0 cases PPY). HMIS incidence measures with denominators weighted by probability of attendance were closer to cohort incidence, but remained underestimates (1.1 cases PPY in Kihihi and 1.4 cases PPY in Nagongera). Conclusions Although malaria incidence measured using HMIS underestimated incidence measured in cohorts, even when adjusting for probability of attendance, HMIS surveillance data are a promising and scalable source for tracking relative changes in malaria incidence over time, particularly when the population denominator can be estimated by incorporating information on village of residence.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1475-2875
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2091229-8
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  • 2
    In: BMC Public Health, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 21, No. 1 ( 2021-12)
    Abstract: Environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall, and vegetation cover play a critical role in malaria transmission. However, quantifying the relationships between environmental factors and measures of disease burden relevant for public health can be complex as effects are often non-linear and subject to temporal lags between when changes in environmental factors lead to changes in malaria incidence. The study investigated the effect of environmental covariates on malaria incidence in high transmission settings of Uganda. Methods This study leveraged data from seven malaria reference centres (MRCs) located in high transmission settings of Uganda over a 24-month period. Estimates of monthly malaria incidence (MI) were derived from MRCs’ catchment areas. Environmental data including monthly temperature, rainfall, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were obtained from remote sensing sources. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to investigate the effect of environmental covariates on malaria incidence. Results Overall, the median (range) monthly temperature was 30 °C (26–47), rainfall 133.0 mm (3.0–247), NDVI 0.66 (0.24–0.80) and MI was 790 per 1000 person-years (73–3973). Temperature of 35 °C was significantly associated with malaria incidence compared to the median observed temperature (30 °C) at month lag 2 (IRR: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.42–2.83) and the increased cumulative IRR of malaria at month lags 1–4, with the highest cumulative IRR of 8.16 (95% CI: 3.41–20.26) at lag-month 4. Rainfall of 200 mm significantly increased IRR of malaria compared to the median observed rainfall (133 mm) at lag-month 0 (IRR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01–1.52) and the increased cumulative IRR of malaria at month lags 1–4, with the highest cumulative IRR of 1.99(95% CI: 1.22–2.27) at lag-month 4. Average NVDI of 0.72 significantly increased the cumulative IRR of malaria compared to the median observed NDVI (0.66) at month lags 2–4, with the highest cumulative IRR of 1.57(95% CI: 1.09–2.25) at lag-month 4. Conclusions In high-malaria transmission settings, high values of environmental covariates were associated with increased cumulative IRR of malaria, with IRR peaks at variable lag times. The complex associations identified are valuable for designing strategies for early warning, prevention, and control of seasonal malaria surges and epidemics.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1471-2458
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2041338-5
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  • 3
    In: The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 103, No. 4 ( 2020-10-07), p. 1517-1524
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0002-9637 , 1476-1645
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1491674-5
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  • 4
    In: Malaria Journal, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 19, No. 1 ( 2020-12)
    Abstract: The burden of malaria in Uganda remains high, but has become increasingly heterogenous following intensified malaria control. Travel within Uganda is recognized as a risk factor for malaria, but behaviours associated with travel are not well-understood. To address this knowledge gap, malaria-relevant behaviours of cohort participants were assessed during travel and at home in Uganda. Methods Residents from 80 randomly selected households in Nagongera sub-county, Tororo district were enrolled into a cohort to study malaria in rural Uganda. All participants were given long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) at enrolment and were evaluated every 4 weeks at the study clinic. Participants were asked if they had travelled overnight from their home, and if so, a questionnaire was administered to capture information on travel details and behaviours. Behaviour while travelling was assessed within 4 weeks following travel during the study clinic visit. Behaviour while at home was assessed using a similar questionnaire during two-weekly home visits. Behaviours while travelling vs at home were compared using log binomial regression models with generalized estimating equations adjusting for repeated measures in the same individual. Analysis of factors associated with LLIN adherence, such as destination and duration of travel, time to bed during travel, gender and age at time of travel, were assessed using log binomial regression models with generalized estimating equations adjusting for repeated measures in the same individual. Results Between October 2017 and October 2019, 527 participants were enrolled and assessed for travel. Of these, 123 (23.2%) reported taking 211 overnight trips; 149 (70.6%) trips were within Tororo. Participants were less likely to use LLINs when travelling than when at home (41.0% vs. 56.2%, relative risk [RR] 0.73, 95% CI 0.60–0.89, p = 0.002); this difference was noted for women (38.8% vs 59.2%, RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.52–0.83, p = 0.001) but not men (48.3% vs 46.6%, RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.67–1.40, p = 0.85). In an adjusted analysis, factors associated with LLIN use when travelling included destination (travelling to districts not receiving indoor residual spraying [IRS] 65.8% vs Tororo district 32.2%, RR 1.80, 95% CI 1.31–2.46, p  〈  0.001) and duration of travel ( 〉  7 nights 60.3% vs one night 24.4%, RR 1.97, 95% CI 1.07–3.64, p = 0.03). Conclusions Travellers, particularly women, were less likely to use LLINs when travelling than when at home. LLIN adherence was higher among those who travelled to non-IRS districts and for more than 1 week, suggesting that perceived malaria risk influences LLIN use. Strategies are needed to raise awareness of the importance of using LLINs while travelling.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1475-2875
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2091229-8
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  • 5
    In: Malaria Journal, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 20, No. 1 ( 2021-12)
    Abstract: Malaria surveillance is critical for monitoring changes in malaria morbidity over time. National Malaria Control Programmes often rely on surrogate measures of malaria incidence, including the test positivity rate (TPR) and total laboratory confirmed cases of malaria (TCM), to monitor trends in malaria morbidity. However, there are limited data on the accuracy of TPR and TCM for predicting temporal changes in malaria incidence, especially in high burden settings. Methods This study leveraged data from 5 malaria reference centres (MRCs) located in high burden settings over a 15-month period from November 2018 through January 2020 as part of an enhanced health facility-based surveillance system established in Uganda. Individual level data were collected from all outpatients including demographics, laboratory test results, and village of residence. Estimates of malaria incidence were derived from catchment areas around the MRCs. Temporal relationships between monthly aggregate measures of TPR and TCM relative to estimates of malaria incidence were examined using linear and exponential regression models. Results A total of 149,739 outpatient visits to the 5 MRCs were recorded. Overall, malaria was suspected in 73.4% of visits, 99.1% of patients with suspected malaria received a diagnostic test, and 69.7% of those tested for malaria were positive. Temporal correlations between monthly measures of TPR and malaria incidence using linear and exponential regression models were relatively poor, with small changes in TPR frequently associated with large changes in malaria incidence. Linear regression models of temporal changes in TCM provided the most parsimonious and accurate predictor of changes in malaria incidence, with adjusted R 2 values ranging from 0.81 to 0.98 across the 5 MRCs. However, the slope of the regression lines indicating the change in malaria incidence per unit change in TCM varied from 0.57 to 2.13 across the 5 MRCs, and when combining data across all 5 sites, the R 2 value reduced to 0.38. Conclusions In high malaria burden areas of Uganda, site-specific temporal changes in TCM had a strong linear relationship with malaria incidence and were a more useful metric than TPR. However, caution should be taken when comparing changes in TCM across sites.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1475-2875
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2091229-8
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  • 6
    In: Malaria Journal, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 21, No. 1 ( 2022-12)
    Abstract: Routine malaria surveillance data in Africa primarily come from public health facilities reporting to national health management information systems. Although information on gender is routinely collected from patients presenting to these health facilities, stratification of malaria surveillance data by gender is rarely done. This study evaluated gender difference among patients diagnosed with parasitological confirmed malaria at public health facilities in Uganda. Methods This study utilized individual level patient data collected from January 2020 through April 2021 at 12 public health facilities in Uganda and cross-sectional surveys conducted in target areas around these facilities in April 2021. Associations between gender and the incidence of malaria and non-malarial visits captured at the health facilities from patients residing within the target areas were estimated using poisson regression models controlling for seasonality. Associations between gender and data on health-seeking behaviour from the cross-sectional surveys were estimated using poisson regression models controlling for seasonality. Results Overall, incidence of malaria diagnosed per 1000 person years was 735 among females and 449 among males (IRR = 1.72, 95% CI 1.68–1.77, p  〈  0.001), with larger differences among those 15–39 years (IRR = 2.46, 95% CI 2.34–2.58, p  〈  0.001) and over 39 years (IRR = 2.26, 95% CI 2.05–2.50, p  〈  0.001) compared to those under 15 years (IRR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.41–1.50, p  〈  0.001). Female gender was also associated with a higher incidence of visits where malaria was not suspected (IRR = 1.77, 95% CI 1.71–1.83, p  〈  0.001), with a similar pattern across age strata. These associations were consistent across the 12 individual health centres. From the cross-sectional surveys, females were more likely than males to report fever in the past 2 weeks and seek care at the local health centre (7.5% vs. 4.7%, p = 0.001) with these associations significant for those 15–39 years (RR = 2.49, 95% CI 1.17–5.31, p = 0.018) and over 39 years (RR = 2.56, 95% CI 1.00–6.54, p = 0.049). Conclusions Females disproportionately contribute to the burden of malaria diagnosed at public health facilities in Uganda, especially once they reach childbearing age. Contributing factors included more frequent visits to these facilities independent of malaria and a higher reported risk of seeking care at these facilities for febrile illnesses.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1475-2875
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
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  • 7
    In: Nature Communications, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 12, No. 1 ( 2021-05-11)
    Abstract: The scale-up of malaria control efforts has led to marked reductions in malaria burden over the past twenty years, but progress has slowed. Implementation of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide, a proven vector control intervention, has been limited and difficult to sustain partly because questions remain on its added impact over widely accepted interventions such as bed nets. Using data from 14 enhanced surveillance health facilities in Uganda, a country with high bed net coverage yet high malaria burden, we estimate the impact of starting and stopping IRS on changes in malaria incidence. We show that stopping IRS was associated with a 5-fold increase in malaria incidence within 10 months, but reinstating IRS was associated with an over 5-fold decrease within 8 months. In areas where IRS was initiated and sustained, malaria incidence dropped by 85% after year 4. IRS could play a critical role in achieving global malaria targets, particularly in areas where progress has stalled.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2041-1723
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2553671-0
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  • 8
    In: Malaria Journal, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 20, No. 1 ( 2021-12)
    Abstract: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) play a key role in malaria case management. The most widely used RDT identifies Plasmodium falciparum based on immunochromatographic recognition of P. falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2). Deletion of the paralogous pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 genes leads to false-negative PfHRP2-based RDTs, and has been reported in P. falciparum infections from South America and Africa. However, identification of pfhrp2/pfhrp3 deletions has usually been based only on failure to amplify these genes using PCR, without confirmation based on PfHRP2 protein expression, and understanding of the true prevalence of deletions is incomplete. Methods Deletions of pfhrp2 / pfhrp3 in blood samples were investigated from cross-sectional surveys in 2012-13 in three regions of varied malaria transmission intensity in Uganda. Samples with positive Giemsa-stained thick blood smears, but negative PfHRP2-based RDTs were evaluated by PCR amplification of conserved subunit ribosomal DNA for Plasmodium species, PCR amplification of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 genes to identify deletions, and bead-based immunoassays for expression of PfHRP2. Results Of 3516 samples collected in cross-sectional surveys, 1493 (42.5%) had positive blood smears, of which 96 (6.4%) were RDT-negative. Of these 96 RDT-negative samples, P. falciparum DNA was identified by PCR in 56 (58%) and only non-falciparum plasmodial DNA in 40 (42%). In all 56 P. falciparum -positive samples there was a failure to amplify pfhrp2 or pfhrp3 : in 25 (45%) pfhrp2 was not amplified, in 39 (70%) pfhrp3 was not amplified, and in 19 (34%) neither gene was amplified. For the 39 P. falciparum -positive, RDT-negative samples available for analysis of protein expression, PfHRP2 was not identified by immunoassay in only four samples (10.3%); these four samples all had failure to amplify both pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 by PCR. Thus, only four of 96 (4.2%) smear-positive, RDT-negative samples had P. falciparum infections with deletion of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 confirmed by failure to amplify the genes by PCR and lack of expression of PfHRP2 demonstrated by immunoassay. Conclusion False negative RDTs were uncommon. Deletions in pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 explained some of these false negatives, but most false negatives were not due to deletion of the pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 genes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1475-2875
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
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  • 9
    In: PLOS Global Public Health, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Vol. 2, No. 3 ( 2022-3-3), p. e0000063-
    Abstract: House construction is rapidly modernizing across Africa but the potential benefits for human health are poorly understood. We hypothesised that improvements to housing would be associated with reductions in malaria, acute respiratory infection (ARI) and gastrointestinal illness in an area of low malaria endemicity in Uganda. Data were analysed from a cohort study of male and female child and adult residents (n = 531) of 80 randomly-selected households in Nagongera sub-county, followed for 24 months (October 4, 2017 to October 31, 2019). Houses were classified as modern (brick walls, metal roof and closed eaves) or traditional (all other homes). Light trap collections of mosquitoes were done every two weeks in all sleeping rooms. Every four weeks, we measured malaria infection (using microscopy and qPCR to detect malaria parasites), incidence of malaria, ARI and gastrointestinal illness. We collected 15,780 adult female Anopheles over 7,631 nights. We collected 13,277 blood samples of which 10.2% (1,347) were positive for malaria parasites. Over 958 person years we diagnosed 38 episodes of uncomplicated malaria (incidence 0.04 episodes per person-year at risk), 2,553 episodes of ARI (incidence 2.7 episodes per person-year) and 387 episodes of gastrointestinal illness (incidence 0.4 episodes per person-year). Modern houses were associated with a 53% lower human biting rate compared to traditional houses (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 0.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.32–0.67, p 〈 0.001) and a 24% lower incidence of gastrointestinal illness (aIRR 0.76, 95% CI 0.59–0.98, p = 0.04) but no changes in malaria prevalence, malaria incidence nor ARI incidence. House improvements may reduce mosquito-biting rates and gastrointestinal illness among children and adults. For the health sector to leverage Africa’s housing modernization, research is urgently needed to identify the healthiest house designs and to assess their effectiveness across a range of epidemiological settings in sub-Saharan Africa.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2767-3375
    Language: English
    Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3101394-6
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  • 10
    In: The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 103, No. 4 ( 2020-10-07), p. 1525-1533
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0002-9637 , 1476-1645
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1491674-5
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