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  • 1
    In: Environmental Health, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 21, No. 1 ( 2022-12)
    Abstract: Dengue dynamics result from the complex interactions between the virus, the host and the vector, all being under the influence of the environment. Several studies explored the link between weather and dengue dynamics and some investigated the impact of climate change on these dynamics. Most attempted to predict incidence rate at a country scale or assess the environmental suitability at a global or regional scale. Here, we propose a new approach which consists in modeling the risk of dengue outbreak at a local scale according to climate conditions and study the evolution of this risk taking climate change into account. We apply this approach in New Caledonia, where high quality data are available. Methods We used a statistical estimation of the effective reproduction number ( R t ) based on case counts to create a categorical target variable : epidemic week/non-epidemic week. A machine learning classifier has been trained using relevant climate indicators in order to estimate the probability for a week to be epidemic under current climate data and this probability was then estimated under climate change scenarios. Results Weekly probability of dengue outbreak was best predicted with the number of days when maximal temperature exceeded 30.8°C and the mean of daily precipitation over 80 and 60 days prior to the predicted week respectively. According to scenario RCP8.5, climate will allow dengue outbreak every year in New Caledonia if the epidemiological and entomological contexts remain the same. Conclusion We identified locally relevant climatic factor driving dengue outbreaks in New Caledonia and assessed the inter-annual and seasonal risk of dengue outbreak under different climate change scenarios up to the year 2100. We introduced a new modeling approach to estimate the risk of dengue outbreak depending on climate conditions. This approach is easily reproducible in other countries provided that reliable epidemiological and climate data are available.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1476-069X
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092232-2
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  • 2
    In: Biogeosciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 15, No. 14 ( 2018-07-18), p. 4333-4352
    Abstract: Abstract. Dinitrogen fixation is now recognized as one of the major sources of bio-available nitrogen in the ocean. Thus, N2 fixation sustains a significant part of the global primary production by supplying the most common limiting nutrient for phytoplankton growth. The “Oligotrophy to UlTra-oligotrophy PACific Experiment” (OUTPACE) improved the data coverage of the western tropical South Pacific, an area recently recognized as a hotspot of N2 fixation. This new development leads us to develop and test an explicit N2 fixation formulation based on the Trichodesmium physiology (the most studied nitrogen fixer) within a 3-D coupled dynamical–biogeochemical model (ROMS-PISCES). We performed a climatological numerical simulation that is able to reproduce the main physical (e.g. sea surface temperature) and biogeochemical patterns (nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations, as well as N2 fixation) in the tropical Pacific. This simulation displayed a Trichodesmium regional distribution that extends from 150∘ E to 120∘ W in the south tropical Pacific, and from 120∘ E to 140∘ W in the north tropical Pacific. The local simulated maximuma were found around islands (Hawaii, Fiji, Samoa, New Caledonia, Vanuatu). We assessed that 15 % of the total primary production may be due to Trichodesmium in the low-nutrient low-chlorophyll regions (LNLC) of the tropical Pacific. Comparison between our explicit and the often used (in biogeochemical models) implicit parameterization of N2 fixation showed that the latter leads to an underestimation of N2 fixation rates by about 25 % in LNLC regions. Finally, we established that iron fluxes from island sediments control the spatial distribution of Trichodesmium biomasses in the western tropical South Pacific. Note, this last result does not take into account the iron supply from rivers and hydrothermal sources, which may well be of importance in a region known for its strong precipitation rates and volcanic activity.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1726-4189
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2158181-2
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  • 3
    In: Progress in Oceanography, Elsevier BV, Vol. 195 ( 2021-07), p. 102593-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0079-6611
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1497436-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 4062-9
    SSG: 21,3
    SSG: 14
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