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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2019
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 116, No. 37 ( 2019-09-10), p. 18378-18383
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, No. 37 ( 2019-09-10), p. 18378-18383
    Abstract: The community of species, human institutions, and human activities at a given location have been shaped by historical conditions (both mean and variability) at that location. Anthropogenic climate change is now adding strong trends on top of existing natural variability. These trends elevate the frequency of “surprises”—conditions that are unexpected based on recent history. Here, we show that the frequency of surprising ocean temperatures has increased even faster than expected based on recent temperature trends. Using a simple model of human adaptation, we show that these surprises will increasingly challenge natural modes of adaptation that rely on historical experience. We also show that warming rates are likely to shift natural communities toward generalist species, reducing their productivity and diversity. Our work demonstrates increasing benefits for individuals and institutions from betting that trends will continue, but this strategy represents a radical shift that will be difficult for many to make.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    RVK:
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2019
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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  • 2
    In: FACETS, Canadian Science Publishing, Vol. 7 ( 2022-01-01), p. 174-193
    Abstract: The degree to which human actions affect marine fisheries has been a fundamental question shaping people’s relationship with the sea. Today, divergences in stakeholder views about the impacts of human activities such as fishing, climate change, pollution, and resource management can hinder effective co-management and adaptation. Here, we used surveys to construct mental models of the Maine lobster fishery, identifying divergent views held by two key stakeholder groups: lobster fishers and marine scientists. The two groups were differentiated by their perceptions of the relative impact of pollution, water temperature, and fishing. Notably, many fishers perceive the process of fishing to have a positive effect on fisheries through the input of bait. Scientists exhibited a statistically significantly stronger concern for climate change and identified CO 2 as one of the dominant pollutants in the Gulf of Maine. However, fishers and scientists agreed that management has a positive impact, which appeared to be a change over the past two decades, possibly due to increased collaboration between the two groups. This work contributes to the goal of decreasing the distance between stakeholder perspectives in the context of a co-managed fishery as well as understanding broader perceptions of impacts of human activities on marine ecosystems.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2371-1671
    Language: English
    Publisher: Canadian Science Publishing
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2852896-7
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  • 3
    In: Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, University of California Press, Vol. 9, No. 1 ( 2021-08-04)
    Abstract: The Gulf of Maine has recently experienced its warmest 5-year period (2015–2020) in the instrumental record. This warming was associated with a decline in the signature subarctic zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus. The temperature changes have also led to impacts on commercial species such as Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and American lobster (Homarus americanus) and protected species including Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) and northern right whales (Eubalaena glacialis). The recent period also saw a decline in Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) recruitment and an increase in novel harmful algal species, although these have not been attributed to the recent warming. Here, we use an ensemble of numerical ocean models to characterize expected ocean conditions in the middle of this century. Under the high CO2 emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the average temperature in the Gulf of Maine is expected to increase 1.1°C to 2.4°C relative to the 1976–2005 average. Surface salinity is expected to decrease, leading to enhanced water column stratification. These physical changes are likely to lead to additional declines in subarctic species including C. finmarchicus, American lobster, and Atlantic cod and an increase in temperate species. The ecosystem changes have already impacted human communities through altered delivery of ecosystem services derived from the marine environment. Continued warming is expected to lead to a loss of heritage, changes in culture, and the necessity for adaptation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2325-1026
    Language: English
    Publisher: University of California Press
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2745461-7
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  • 4
    In: Fish and Fisheries, Wiley, Vol. 20, No. 6 ( 2019-11), p. 1111-1123
    Abstract: Climate‐driven warming has both social and ecological effects on marine fisheries. While recent changes due to anthropogenic global warming have been documented, similar basin‐wide changes have occurred in the past due to natural temperature fluctuations. Here, we document the effects of rapidly changing water temperatures along the United States’ east coast using observations from fisheries newspapers during a warming phase (1945–1951) and subsequent cooling phase (1952–1960) of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which we compared to similar recent observations of warming waters (1998–2017). Historical warming and cooling events affected the abundance of species targeted by fishing, the prevalence of novel and invasive species, and physical access to targeted species. Fishing communities viewed historical cooling waters twice as negatively as they did warming waters (72% vs. 35% of observations). Colder waters were associated with a decrease in fishing opportunity due to storminess, while warming waters were associated with the potential for new fisheries. In contrast, recent warming waters were viewed as strongly negative by fishing communities (72% of observations), associated with disease, reductions in abundances of target species, and shifts in distributions across jurisdictional lines. This increasing perception that warming negatively affects local fisheries may be due to an overall reduction of opportunity in fisheries over the past half century, an awareness of the relative severity of warming today, larger changes in American culture, or a combination of these factors. Negative perceptions of recent warming waters’ effects on fisheries suggest that fishing communities are currently finding the prospect of climate adaptation difficult.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1467-2960 , 1467-2979
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2024569-5
    SSG: 21,3
    SSG: 12
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