GLORIA

GEOMAR Library Ocean Research Information Access

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2022
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 58, No. 7-8 ( 2022-04), p. 2149-2166
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 58, No. 7-8 ( 2022-04), p. 2149-2166
    Abstract: Under the influence of global warming, heatwaves are becoming a major threat in many parts of the world, affecting human health and mortality, food security, forest fires, biodiversity, energy consumption, as well as the production and transportation networks. Seasonal forecasting is a promising tool to help mitigate these impacts on society. Previous studies have highlighted some predictive capacity of seasonal forecast systems for specific strong heatwaves such as those of 2003 and 2010. To our knowledge, this study is thus the first of its kind to systematically assess the prediction skill of heatwaves over Europe in a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system. One major prerequisite to do so is to appropriately define heatwaves. Existing heatwave indices, built to measure heatwave duration and severity, are often designed for specific impacts and thus have limited robustness for an analysis of heatwave variability. In this study, we investigate the seasonal prediction skill of European summer heatwaves in the ECMWF System 5 operational forecast system by means of several dedicated metrics, as well as its added-value compared to a simple statistical model based on the linear trend. We are able to show, for the first time, that seasonal forecasts initialized in early May can provide potentially useful information of summer heatwave propensity , which is the tendency of a season to be predisposed to the occurrence of heatwaves.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2022
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 58, No. 7-8 ( 2022-04), p. 1927-1942
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 58, No. 7-8 ( 2022-04), p. 1927-1942
    Abstract: The intimate link between soil moisture and precipitation makes it a “chicken-and-egg situation” that challenges climate studies of the continental water cycle. This association is particularly acute over the Mediterranean, increasingly exposed to droughts with climate change. This study aims at deciphering the impact of spring soil moisture state in the Mediterranean on subsequent warm season precipitation. In an idealized setup, two distinct climate models are used to generate extreme dry or wet soil conditions, and run climate simulations initialized and/or forced by these conditions. Changes in precipitation distribution and persistence are analyzed and where applicable compared to composites from a reanalysis. Spring soil moisture anomalies are found to be very persistent, but the precipitation response is largely model dependent. Overall, dry soils lead to a reduction of precipitation for early summer months and conversely for wet soils although with a fainter and less robust signal. On the other hand, wet soils tend to favor the persistence of precipitation throughout summer over several sub-regions. Our results highlight the stringent need to reduce the wide array of uncertainties associated to soil moisture, land-atmosphere coupling and convection in climate models, before ascertaining that soil moisture initialization could provide more skillful sub-seasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 3
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 58, No. 7-8 ( 2022-04), p. 1943-1963
    Abstract: Land surface and atmosphere are interlocked by the hydrological and energy cycles and the effects of soil water-air coupling can modulate near-surface temperatures. In this work, three paired experiments were designed to evaluate impacts of different soil moisture initial and boundary conditions on summer temperatures in the Mediterranean transitional climate regime region. In this area, evapotranspiration is not limited by solar radiation, rather by soil moisture, which therefore controls the boundary layer variability. Extremely dry, extremely wet and averagely humid ground conditions are imposed to two global climate models at the beginning of the warm and dry season. Then, sensitivity experiments, where atmosphere is alternatively interactive with and forced by land surface, are launched. The initial soil state largely affects summer near-surface temperatures: dry soils contribute to warm the lower atmosphere and exacerbate heat extremes, while wet terrains suppress thermal peaks, and both effects last for several months. Land-atmosphere coupling proves to be a fundamental ingredient to modulate the boundary layer state, through the partition between latent and sensible heat fluxes. In the coupled runs, early season heat waves are sustained by interactive dry soils, which respond to hot weather conditions with increased evaporative demand, resulting in longer-lasting extreme temperatures. On the other hand, when wet conditions are prescribed across the season, the occurrence of hot days is suppressed. The land surface prescribed by climatological precipitation forcing causes a temperature drop throughout the months, due to sustained evaporation of surface soil water. Results have implications for seasonal forecasts on both rain-fed and irrigated continental regions in transitional climate zones.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...