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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2005
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 18, No. 21 ( 2005-11-01), p. 4514-4530
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 18, No. 21 ( 2005-11-01), p. 4514-4530
    Abstract: The variability in the East African short rains is investigated using 41-yr data from the observation and 200-yr data from a coupled general circulation model known as the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change, version 1 (SINTEX-F1). The model-simulated data provide a scope to understand the climate variability in the region with a better statistical confidence. Most of the variability in the model short rains is linked to the basinwide large-scale coupled mode, that is, the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean. The analysis of observed data and model results reveals that the influence of the IOD on short rains is overwhelming as compared to that of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the correlation between ENSO and short rains is insignificant when the IOD influence is excluded. The IOD–short rains relationship does not change significantly in a model experiment in which the ENSO influence is removed by decoupling the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. The partial correlation analysis of the model data demonstrates that a secondary influence comes from a regional mode located near the African coast. Inconsistent with the observational findings, the model results show a steady evolution of IOD prior to extreme events of short rains. Dynamically consistent evolution of correlations is found in anomalies of the surface winds, currents, sea surface height, and sea surface temperature. Anomalous changes of the Walker circulation provide a necessary driving mechanism for anomalous moisture transport and convection over the coastal East Africa. The model results nicely augment the observational findings and provide us with a physical basis to consider IOD as a predictor for variations of the short rains. This is demonstrated in detail using the statistical analysis method. The prediction skill of the dipole mode SST index in July and August is 92% for the observation, which scales slightly higher for the model index (96%) in August. As observed in data, the model results show decadal weakening in the relationship between IOD and short rains owing to weakening in the IOD activity.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2005
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    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2002
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Vol. 107, No. C12 ( 2002-12), p. SRF 16-1-SRF 16-20
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 107, No. C12 ( 2002-12), p. SRF 16-1-SRF 16-20
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2002
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    SSG: 16,13
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  • 3
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 30, No. 24 ( 2003-12)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2003
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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