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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Large ensemble flood loss modelling and uncertainty assessment for future climate conditions for a Swiss pre-alpine catchment
    Elsevier BV ; 2019
    In:  Science of The Total Environment Vol. 693 ( 2019-11), p. 133400-
    Details
    In: Science of The Total Environment, Elsevier BV, Vol. 693 ( 2019-11), p. 133400-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0048-9697
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.206
    RVK:
    AR 10100
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1498726-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 121506-1
    SSG: 12
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Comparison of scenario‐neutral approaches for estimation of climate change impacts on flood characteristics
    Wiley ; 2019
    In:  Hydrological Processes Vol. 33, No. 4 ( 2019-02-15), p. 535-550
    Details
    In: Hydrological Processes, Wiley, Vol. 33, No. 4 ( 2019-02-15), p. 535-550
    Abstract: Scenario‐neutral assessments of climate change impact on floods analyse the sensitivity of a catchment to a range of changes in selected meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. The key challenges of the approach are the choice of the meteorological variables and statistics thereof and how to generate time series representing altered climatologies of the selected variables. Different methods have been proposed to achieve this, and it remains unclear if and to which extent they result in comparable flood change projections. Here, we compare projections of annual maximum floods (AMFs) derived from three different scenario‐neutral methods for a prealpine study catchment. The methods chosen use different types of meteorological data, namely, observations, regional climate model output, and weather generator data. The different time series account for projected changes in the seasonality of temperature and precipitation, in the occurrence statistics of precipitation, and of daily precipitation extremes. Resulting change in mean AMF peak magnitudes and volumes differs in sign between the methods (range of −6% to +7% for flood peak magnitudes and −11% to +14% for flood volumes). Moreover, variability of projected peak magnitudes and flood volumes depends on method with one approach leading to a generally larger spread. The differences between the methods vary depending on whether peak magnitudes or flood volumes are considered and different relationships between peak magnitude and volume change result. These findings can be linked to differing flood regime changes among the three approaches. The study highlights that considering selected aspects of climate change only when performing scenario‐neutral studies may lead to differing representations of flood generating processes by the approaches and thus different quantifications of flood change. As each method comes with its own strengths and weaknesses, it is recommended to combine several scenario‐neutral approaches to obtain more robust results.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0885-6087 , 1099-1085
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/hyp.v33.4
    DOI: 10.1002/hyp.13341
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1479953-4
    SSG: 14
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    River runoff in Switzerland in a changing climate – runoff regime changes and their time of emergence
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2021
    In:  Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 25, No. 6 ( 2021-06-08), p. 3071-3086
    Details
    In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 25, No. 6 ( 2021-06-08), p. 3071-3086
    Abstract: Abstract. Assessments of climate change impacts on runoff regimes are essential to climate change adaptation and mitigation planning. Changing runoff regimes and thus changing seasonal patterns of water availability strongly influence various economic sectors such as agriculture, energy production, and fishery and also affect river ecology. In this study, we use new transient hydrological scenarios driven by the most up-to-date local climate projections for Switzerland, the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios. These provide detailed information on changes in runoff regimes and their time of emergence for 93 rivers in Switzerland under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. These transient scenarios also allow changes to be framed as a function of global mean temperature. The new projections for seasonal runoff changes largely confirm the sign of changes in runoff from previous hydrological scenarios with increasing winter runoff and decreasing summer and autumn runoff. Spring runoff is projected to increase in high-elevation catchments and to decrease in lower-lying catchments. Despite the increases in winter and some increases in spring, the annual mean runoff is projected to decrease in most catchments. Compared to lower-lying catchments, runoff changes in high-elevation catchments (above 1500 m a.s.l.) are larger in winter, spring, and summer due to the large influence of reduced snow accumulation and earlier snowmelt and glacier melt. The changes in runoff and the agreement between climate models on the sign of change both increase with increasing global mean temperatures and higher-emission scenarios. This amplification highlights the importance of climate change mitigation. The time of emergence is the time when the climate signal emerges significantly from natural variability. Under RCP8.5, times of emergence were found early, before the period 2036–2065, in winter and summer for catchments with mean altitudes above 1500 m a.s.l. Significant changes in catchments below 1500 m a.s.l. emerge later in the century. Not all catchments show significant changes in the distribution of seasonal means; thus, no time of emergence could be determined in these catchments. Furthermore, the significant changes of seasonal mean runoff are not persistent over time in some catchments due to nonlinear changes in runoff.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1607-7938
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2100610-6
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    From global circulation to local flood loss: Coupling models across the scales
    Elsevier BV ; 2018
    In:  Science of The Total Environment Vol. 635 ( 2018-09), p. 1225-1239
    Details
    In: Science of The Total Environment, Elsevier BV, Vol. 635 ( 2018-09), p. 1225-1239
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0048-9697
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.170
    RVK:
    AR 10100
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1498726-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 121506-1
    SSG: 12
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    River runoff in Switzerland in a changing climate – changes in moderate extremes and their seasonality
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2021
    In:  Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 25, No. 6 ( 2021-06-23), p. 3577-3594
    Details
    In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 25, No. 6 ( 2021-06-23), p. 3577-3594
    Abstract: Abstract. Future changes in river runoff will impact many sectors such as agriculture, energy production, or ecosystems. Here, we study changes in the seasonality, frequency, and magnitude of moderate low and high flows and their time of emergence. The time of emergence indicates the timing of significant changes in the flow magnitudes. Daily runoff is simulated for 93 Swiss catchments for the period 1981–2099 under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 with 20 climate model chains from the most recent transient Swiss Climate Change Scenarios. In the present climate, annual low flows typically occur in the summer half-year in lower-lying catchments (〈1500 m a.s.l.) and in the winter half-year in Alpine catchments (〉1500 m a.s.l.). By the end of the 21st century, annual low flows are projected to occur in late summer and early autumn in most catchments. This indicates that decreasing precipitation and increasing evapotranspiration in summer and autumn exceed the water contributions from other processes such as snowmelt and glacier melt. In lower-lying catchments, the frequency of annual low flows increases, but their magnitude decreases and becomes more severe. In Alpine catchments, annual low flows occur less often and their magnitude increases. The magnitude of seasonal low flows is projected to decrease in the summer half-year in most catchments and to increase in the winter half-year in Alpine catchments. Early time of emergence is found for annual low flows in Alpine catchments in the 21st century due to early changes in low flows in the winter half-year. In lower-lying catchments, significant changes in low flows emerge later in the century. Annual high flows occur today in lower-lying catchments in the winter half-year and in Alpine catchments in the summer half-year. Climate change will change this seasonality mainly in Alpine catchments with a shift towards earlier seasonality in summer due to the reduced contribution of snowmelt and glacier melt in summer. Annual high flows tend to occur more frequent, and their magnitude increases in most catchments except some Alpine catchments. The magnitude of seasonal high flows in most catchments is projected to increase in the winter half-year and to decrease in the summer half-year. However, the climate model agreement on the sign of change in moderate high flows is weak.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1607-7938
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2100610-6
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Delineation of flood generating processes and their hydrological response
    Wiley ; 2018
    In:  Hydrological Processes Vol. 32, No. 2 ( 2018-01-15), p. 228-240
    Details
    In: Hydrological Processes, Wiley, Vol. 32, No. 2 ( 2018-01-15), p. 228-240
    Abstract: Knowledge about flood generating processes can be beneficial for numerous applications. Especially in the context of climate change impact assessment, daily patterns of meteorological and catchment state conditions leading to flood events (i.e., storylines) may be of value. Here, we propose an approach to identify storylines of flood generation using daily weather and snow cover observations. The approach is tested for and applied to a typical pre‐Alpine catchment in the period between 1961 and 2014. Five precipitation parameters were determined that describe temporal and spatial characteristics of the flood associated precipitation events. The catchment's snow coverage was derived using statistical relationships between a satellite‐derived snow cover climatology and station snow measurements. Moreover, (pre‐) event snow melt sums were estimated using a temperature‐index model. Based on the precipitation and catchment state parameters, 5 storylines were identified with a cluster analysis: These are (a) long duration, low intensity precipitation events with high precipitation depths, (b) long duration precipitation events with high precipitation depths and episodes of high intensities, (c) shorter duration events with high or (d) low precipitation intensity, respectively, and (e) rain‐on‐snow events. The event groups have distinct hydrological characteristics that can largely be explained by the storylines' respective properties. The long duration, high intensity storyline leads to the most adverse hydrological response, namely, a combination of high peak magnitudes, high volumes, and long durations of threshold exceedance. The results show that flood generating processes in mesoscale catchments can be distinguished on the basis of daily meteorological and catchment state parameters and that these process types can explain the hydrological flood properties in a qualitative way. Hydrological simulations of daily resolution can thus be analysed with respect to flood generating processes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0885-6087 , 1099-1085
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/hyp.v32.2
    DOI: 10.1002/hyp.11407
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1479953-4
    SSG: 14
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    An ensemble of daily simulated runoff data (1981–2099) under climate change conditions for 93 catchments in Switzerland (Hydro‐CH2018‐Runoff ensemble)
    Wiley ; 2022
    In:  Geoscience Data Journal Vol. 9, No. 1 ( 2022-06), p. 46-57
    Details
    In: Geoscience Data Journal, Wiley, Vol. 9, No. 1 ( 2022-06), p. 46-57
    Abstract: We present a new ensemble of daily runoff simulations for meso‐scale catchments in Switzerland for the period 1981–2099: The Hydro‐CH2018‐Runoff ensemble. The ensemble contains runoff simulations for 93 catchments in Switzerland covering a wide range of different catchment characteristics governed by pluvial, nival and glacial runoff regimes. The hydrological modelling system PREVAH was thoroughly calibrated and validated for each catchment. The simulations show satisfactory performance with a median Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.82 in the calibration and validation period. The calibrated parameters were then used to simulate runoff under climate change for each of the 93 catchments. These simulations were driven by the high‐resolution new Swiss climate change scenarios (CH2018) consisting of 68 GCM‐RCM combinations covering 3 different emission scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The simulations show good agreement between simulated and observed runoff regimes in the reference period. The Hydro‐CH2018‐Runoff ensemble is publicly available under http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3937485 (Muelchi, R., Rössler, O., Schwanbeck, J., Weingartner, R., and Martius, O. (2020) Hydro‐CH2018‐Runoff ensemble (version v1). Zenodo) and can be used for further impact studies.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2049-6060 , 2049-6060
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/gdj3.v9.1
    DOI: 10.1002/gdj3.117
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2745699-7
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  • 8
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    Online Resource
    Characterizing precipitation events leading to surface water flood damage over large regions of complex terrain
    IOP Publishing ; 2019
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 14, No. 6 ( 2019-06-01), p. 064010-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 14, No. 6 ( 2019-06-01), p. 064010-
    Abstract: Surface water floods (SWFs) that lead to household losses are mainly localized phenomena. Research on describing the associated precipitation characteristics has previously been based on case studies and on the derivation of local rainfall thresholds, but no approaches have yet been presented on the national scale. Here, we propose a new way to overcome this scaling problem. We linked a gridded precipitation dataset based on both rainfall gauges and radar data with geolocated insurance claims for all of Switzerland. We show that the absolute thresholds vary markedly over complex terrain, and we thus propose basing early warning systems for predicting damage-relevant SWF events on local quantiles of maximum intensity and the total sum of event precipitation. A threshold model based on these two parameters is able to classify rainfall events potentially leading to damage-relevant SWF events over large areas of complex terrain, including high mountains and lowland areas, and a variety of geological conditions. Our approach is an important step towards the development of impact-based early warning systems. Weather warning agencies or insurance companies can build upon these findings to find workarounds for issuing user-targeted warnings at national scale or for nowcasting purposes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab127c
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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