In:
PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Vol. 19, No. 9 ( 2023-9-1), p. e1011423-
Abstract:
There are many contrasting results concerning the effectiveness of Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) strategies in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 spread. To shed light on this debate, we developed a novel static-temporal multiplex network characterizing both the regular (static) and random (temporal) contact patterns of individuals and a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model calibrated with historical COVID-19 epidemiological data. We estimated that the TTI strategy alone could not control the disease spread: assuming R 0 = 2.5, the infection attack rate would be reduced by 24.5%. Increased test capacity and improved contact trace efficiency only slightly improved the effectiveness of the TTI. We thus investigated the effectiveness of the TTI strategy when coupled with reactive social distancing policies. Limiting contacts on the temporal contact layer would be insufficient to control an epidemic and contacts on both layers would need to be limited simultaneously. For example, the infection attack rate would be reduced by 68.1% when the reactive distancing policy disconnects 30% and 50% of contacts on static and temporal layers, respectively. Our findings highlight that, to reduce the overall transmission, it is important to limit contacts regardless of their types in addition to identifying infected individuals through contact tracing, given the substantial proportion of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1553-7358
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.g001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.g002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.g003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.g004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.g005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.g006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.g007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s008
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s009
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s010
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s011
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s012
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s013
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s014
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s015
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s016
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s017
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s018
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s019
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s020
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.s021
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.r001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.r002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.r003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423.r004
Language:
English
Publisher:
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Publication Date:
2023
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2193340-6
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